Memorial Day just wouldn’t be the same without baseball, so thank you again KBO. Sure, we’re stretching to include 5:30am tomorrow as part of Memorial Day, but KBO DFS players aren’t sleeping between now and lock anyway, so it counts!
The KBO continued to give us some dynamite action through last week, with another 328 runs scored collectively. A few terrific pitching performances were threaded in as well, but the theme of this league so far has been offense. While it is only a 3-week sample, looking at team stats on the season so far is revealing about the upside for some of these teams. 3 teams, the KT Wiz, Doosan Bears, and NC Dinos have scored more than 100 runs, and a stunning 58 runs separate the Wiz (119) from the SK Wyverns (61) at the top and bottom of the rankings. The Wyverns are clearly suffering a power outage so far on the young season, they rank next to last in home runs, 1 ahead of Hanwha’s 11 total. At the top of the standings the 14-3 first place NC Dinos have smashed 23 home runs on the year so far.
KBO doesn’t play on Mondays, which makes this a prime opportunity to run down some of our early individual league leaders:
Hits/Avg: Jose Miguel Fernandez (36/81 .500), Mel Rojas Jr. (30/78 .423), Jae-ho Kim (22/63 .400), Sang-su Kim (21/70 .389), Hyun-soo Kim (27/76 .386)
On-Base %: Jose Miguel Fernandez (.544), Sang-su Kim (.522), Ah-seop Son (.493), Jae-ho Kim (.468), Mel Rojas Jr. (.468)
Slugging %: Roberto Ramos (.767), Jose Miguel Fernandez (.764), Baek-ho Kang (.737), Jae-il Oh (.692), Mel Rojas Jr. (.690)
HR: Roberto Ramos (7), Dong-min Han (6), Preston Tucker (5), Baek-ho Kang (5), whole bunch of guys (4)
RBI: Preston Tucker (21), Jung-hoo Lee (19), Jose Miguel Fernandez (17), Dong-yeop Kim, Eun-sung Chae, Roberto Ramos, Sung-woo Jang (16)
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KBO DFS players have two games with very concerning weather conditions to worry about. 12 hours out from game-time, we’re looking at 75% probability of rain for the Kia Tigers @ KT Wiz and SK Wyverns @ Doosan Bears games. Suwon and Seoul are separated by about 20 miles, so whatever happens to one of these games is likely to get both. With several key teams involved this will be a critical situation going into lock.
KBO DFS Picks: Hitting Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Kia Tigers @ KT Wiz – 9.5 run total (4.67/5.03) – Suggested Stack: Tigers 1-5
If this one plays it should be a pretty fun game. With quality starting pitchers and capable bats on both sides the oddsmakers have this one relatively close, with the home team slightly favored. The Tigers draw young Je-seong Bae who has been excellent through his first 3 starts of the season. Bae has allowed contact but minimized walks and subsequently has managed to give up only 2 earned runs through 20 innings. The matchup has the Tigers ranked in the middle of Awesemo’s stack rankings. Key hitters in the middle of this lineup are still underpriced on FanDuel. Ji-wan Na ($7/$3.5k) and Hyung-woo Choi ($11/$5.3k) are both going to be popular but are important parts of this offense when it’s going right. Na’s price and ownership are in play on DraftKings as well, but Choi is pricey. Interestingly, the top two hitters in the lineup, Chan-ho Park ($10/$4.6k) and Sun-bin Kim ($9/$4.0k) are drawing essentially no ownership on FanDuel.
The Wiz come into this one in 7th place at 7-10, despite having one of the top offenses in the league so far. The flawed KT bullpen has cost them several wins already this season; this is a team that is much better than its record. Tonight, they have a tall order against import starter Drew Gagnon, who is Awesemo’s 2nd highest projected pitcher. Cleanup hitting outfielder Mel Rojas Jr. ($15/$5.9k) needs to be discussed. He’s carrying the highest individual hitting projection on the night on both sites, but that comes with around 45% ownership on both sites. I can’t blame anyone for wanting to get Rojas into the lineup, he’s off to an incredible start to his year, but at these prices and that ownership, the sheer variance of baseball makes me want to look elsewhere. Projected 3 hitter Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2.5k) is carrying under 10% ownership on both sites and makes for an appealing option here.
LG Twins @ Hanwha Eagles – 8.5 run total (4.94/3.75) – Suggested Stack: Twins 2-6
This one is the lowest run total of the night, with a matchup of two talented import starters. With Chad Bell making his first appearance of 2020 for Hanwha after a very effective 2019. The Twins rank 3rd in the top stacks tool on both sites tonight, and their ownership is currently looking a bit low on FanDuel. For some reason DraftKings is still refusing to put Roberto Ramos ($16/$3.6k) despite Ramos currently leading the KBO in home runs and slugging percentage and being tied for 5th in RBIs. His teammate Eun-sung Chae ($12/$2.7k) hits 3rd in this lineup every night and is also among the league RBI leaders. He’s too cheap on both sites. Hitting 6th, infielder Min-sung Kim ($10/$3.6k) is an experienced veteran bat with more upside than he’s shown so far. At under 10% projected ownership he merits inclusion in some of your LG stacks.
The Eagles have one of the KBO’s worst offenses and it’s going to be difficult for them to do much here against Tyler Wilson. The Eagles rank last on both sites, with under a 4% probability of being the best stack option for KBO DFS owners. Only Jared Hoying ($11/$4.8k) is drawing ownership in this lineup, so if you want to get very different build a stack with other Eagles hitters and you can almost guarantee a unique lineup tonight. Sung-yeol Lee ($9/3.2k) is drawing no ownership and is the next best hitter in the projections tonight.
SK Wyverns @ Doosan Bears – 9.5 run total (3.88/5.87) – Suggested Stack: Bears 1-5
The other rain-threatened game of the night has the cellar-dwelling worst offense in the league of the SK Wyverns taking on one of the better starters in the KBO so far in Doosan’s Chris Flexen. My HR model is showing some power opportunity for the heart of the SK lineup, but that probably has more to do with Flexen’s limited history prior to this year than it does their bats, as Awesemo has the Wyverns as one of his least favorite stacks tonight. KBO DFS owners would probably do better to look elsewhere, but usual suspects Jamie Romak ($12/$6.1k) and Dong-min Han ($9/$4.2k) are our best bets here, and Soo-kwang Noh ($6/$3.0k) is an affordable bolt-on hitting ahead of them. There is not much talent after Romak in this lineup, however. Update: the Wyverns announced that Han will miss the next 6-8 weeks with a micro-fracture in his shin after what originally appeared to not be a serious injury on Sunday.
The Bears, on the other hand, have talent up and down their lineup and once again rank at the top of the stacks tool. I try to not just mention obvious options, but the absurd start that Jose Miguel Fernandez ($18/$6.0k) has gotten off to has him approaching the salary levels of bad pitchers on FanDuel. The ownership will be high but deserved on the Bears again tonight, if they’re playing they will be a great option. Outfielder Kun-woo Park ($12/$3.8k) gets on base plenty in front of Fernandez and should be included in Doosan stacks from the leadoff spot, and there are quality options through the projected 7 hitter here.
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Samsung Lions @ Lotte Giants – 9 run total (4.12/5.08) – Suggested Stack: Giants 1-5
With one of the lowest run totals on the slate, the lowly Lions look to topple import starter Dan Straily tonight. The Lions rank bottom-middle in the top stacks tool, but they do continue to present KBO DFS owners with a ton of salary value on FanDuel and might be going somewhat under-owned, despite the tough matchup. The most popular option by far will be 2nd hitter Ji-Chan Kim ($5/$2.5k) who is extremely cheap for the quality projection Awesemo has for him tonight. Building a stack from the top down in this order is the most sensible approach since Kim’s teammates won’t be widely owned. Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4.5k) and Dong-yeop Kim ($9/$2.9k) are among these cheap low-owned options with upside in the heart of the order.
The Giants are settling in around .500 right now and have given us some great performances. They’re a frustrating team to roster though, as they’ve so far been an all-or-nothing squad, giving you very little on the scoreboard when they’re not exploding for runs. Facing a capable young lefty here, the Giants might be a little over-owned and worth avoiding. If you do look to them tonight, 3rd hitter Jun-woo Jeon ($14/$4.5k) has a strong projection on the night, and Dae-ho Lee ($11/$4.2k) is in the top 5 in my home run model hitting cleanup. Building up from these two or including 5-hitter Chi-hong An ($10/$2.7k) are workable options.
Kiwoom Heroes @ NC Dinos – 9.5 run total (4.17/5.55) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-5
This one is a big early season showdown between two of the league powerhouses. The 14-3 first place Dinos are hosting the Heroes who are still trying to find their footing in the win column at 10-8. The Heroes offense has been rolling along, ranking 4th in the league in runs and home runs but they have a tough matchup against Chang-mo Koo. The top stacks tool doesn’t love the Heroes tonight either. Ha-seong Kim ($13/$4.9k) is a playable shortstop option on DraftKings if you’re building with Kiwoom, but he will be widely owned among those who do look to this stack. I would focus any Heroes constructions in the 2-5 range here.
Let’s keep this between us, but the Dinos might be a bit under-owned if things align to our current projections. Ranking 2nd on both sites in the top stacks tool but with slightly lower ownership than probability of success, they should be a fantastic option again tonight. Star catcher Eui-ji Yang ($13/$5.0k) is going to be in about half of all DraftKings lineups tonight, so it could be sharp to just pivot from him in some Dinos builds. That said, he’s popular for a good reason and he looks great in Awesemo’s projections again tonight, so I’ll probably get different elsewhere in most of my builds. Aaron Altherr ($10/$5.3) has been bouncing around the lineup while the Dinos try to get him going. Depending on where he’s hitting, Altherr could be a great sneaky angle into this stack with some of his more popular teammates. This is a guy who many think could still be bouncing around in MLB, where we’ve seen him hit, so it’s reasonable to assume he’s going to be productive for us as the season carries on, getting to the front-end of his turnaround will be profitable.
Favorite Stack: NC Dinos
HR Call: Dae-ho Lee (Lot)Â
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