Talk about a slate that went almost exactly to expectations. KBO DFS owners got pretty much everything they were expecting from the league last night, with the chalky high-ranked bats going off in the right ways and some of the slate’s more obvious pitching spots connecting.
Tonight, unfortunately, we’re going to have some weather to deal with again. At this point it’s a your guess is as good as mine type of situation. As of about 12 hours out from lock both the Kia @ NC game and the SK @ Lotte game have forecasts with 35-45% chances of “light rain,” which is more than what was predicted for the Hanwha-Kia game that wiped out on Tuesday. Keep a close eye on your favorite KBO meteorologist and join us in slack before lock to get the latest.
KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters
Totals tonight are way down, the power is out in the KBO for a day. We have just one game that jumped up to a 10.0 total on my last update, so bats and fantasy points might be at a bit of a premium tonight. I have my eye on a few spots that look good in Awesemo’s projections and my home run model, so we’ll take a look at ownership and stacks and see what we can find.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Hanwha Eagles @ Doosan Bears – 9.5 run total (3.44/6.35) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears – 1-2-3-4-6
The Eagles and Bears couldn’t be more different at this point. The Eagles have no relevance and if the KBO had relegation they’d be considering replacing the team mid-season instead of waiting on the final standings. The Bears are among the KBO’s best teams, fighting back and forth near the top of the standings. We need look no further than the dramatically slanted run total in this game to see that, the Bears are implied for nearly a full three runs more than their opponent.
Raul Alcantara has been pitching well in the KBO this year. His 19.5% strikeout rate ranks 14th among qualified starters and he sits with a tidy 7-1 record to go with his 4.13 FIP. The Eagles bats are just never going to be a go-to for us, but this is a spot where I think I specifically want to target them with the pitcher, and almost completely leave them out of the bats side of things. No hitter in this lineup projects for even eight DraftKings points tonight, only one cracks the 10-point mark on FanDuel. That hitter is Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$3,400) who found himself hitting down lineup a bit and we’re projecting him there again, taking away even more of his already limited appeal. In-ho Choi ($5/$2,300) is inexpensive on both sites and one of the more likely Eagles to hit a home run according to my model. Not likely, just more likely than most of his teammates. Alcantara is going to be massively owned against this team tonight, but it’s not a spot with enough quality or opportunity to really chase as a leverage play.
The Bears are set to rampage tonight. Bum-soo Kim is converted reliever who just has never been very good in his KBO career. This is a spot for KBO DFS owners to consider getting over the public on. They rank first among stacks on both sites but the ownership isn’t too far out of line. Give me some Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,200), Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$6,100), and Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,700) get mentioned here a lot with good reason, they’re a terrific trio of hitters in the heart of this lineup and they provide some position flexibility, while being a daily pay-up to be contrarian option. Kyoung-min Hur ($8/$3,500) and Jae-won Oh ($7/$2,500) could be interesting late in the order as part of some constructions here.
Kia Tigers @ NC Dinos – 9.5 run total (4.90/4.80) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 2-6
The Dinos bats popped again last night putting up a 9-run game against the Giants in a 9-7 Dinos victory. Aaron Altherr hit another home run after sliding up in the lineup. The Tigers handled Warwick Saupold capably, putting six early runs on the Eagles ace in a 7-1 Tigers’ rout. The core hitters for KBO DFS owners in both lineups came through, but they’re in a trickier spot facing one another tonight.
The Tigers get Dinos starter Sung-young Choi who has been shaky in three starts so far in 2020. The lefty disaster has been pitching worse than his 5.94 earned run average so far, posting a brutal 7.48 FIP. He also has a perfect K:BB% of 0.0 – if you don’t hear Dean Wormer in your head when you read “0.0” we need to talk about your movie viewing habits – both striking out and walking 9% of hitters. This should present opportunity for bats like the Tigers and I’m surprised to see the implied total under 5 runs. I think this is a sneaky high-quality spot tonight. The Tigers rank fourth in stack rankings, but it’s a close grouping up top and they appear to be under-valued by KBO DFS players tonight. Get on these guys, it could be a very strong way to differentiate some Bears stacks with a solid combination if you can figure out how to make the pricing work. Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,700) is this team’s most popular hitter on both sites, but you can included him with the very low ownership on Preston Tucker ($17/$6,000), Hyung-woo Choi ($13/$4,800), and Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,500) while stretching out the stack by mixing and matching other options. Tucker at 6.4% ownership and Choi around 10% is simply too low with their respective .317/.397/.583 and .323/.423/.528 lines so far this season.
I don’t love this spot for the Dinos with Drew Gagnon on the hill for the Tigers. I’m not sure why odds-makers have this one quite as close as they do, it should be a fun game to watch. Gagnon ranks seventh among qualified KBO starters with a 23.8% strikeout rate and sports a dynamite 2.91 FIP. The Dinos are a high-end lineup night after night, but this is a challenge for them. The public won’t be on them too any great degree and this time around I’m more in line with that thinking. I still want to get to some low-owned constructions that include the best bats on this team like Sung-bum Na ($18/$5,800), Suk-min Park ($10/$4,500), and Aaron Altherr ($16/$5,200). Superstar catcher Eui-ji Yang ($13/$6,000) is a guy who drops into KBO DFS lineups with scary regularity, but this is another night that he’ll be less popular than usual, make sure to take advantage of that fact and get him in more than usual where you’re playing Dinos. For the season so far Yang is posting a .313/.387/.582 line with eight home runs and 36 RBIs, far and away the best catcher performance in the KBO.
LG Twins @ Samsung Lions – 10.0 run total (5.36/4.86) – Suggested Stack(s): Twins 1-5
If you guys didn’t catch my MLB OOTP 21 sim season over on Sideaction, I’m excited to finally be able to tell you that the LG Twins broke through and won the KBO title for our pal Y.T. Park, his first in the final year of his illustrious career. Now hopefully the real deal can get things in gear and do the same for him. The Twins lost a relatively uneventful one to the Wiz last night, a game that notably did not feature a home run by Roberto Ramos once again. The slugger did manage to go 3-4 in the game, so hopefully he’ll find his big bat soon. The Lions rode a homer from Ja-wook Koo and solid contributions from the top half of their lineup to an easy 6-2 victory over the Wyverns.
Tonight, the Twins land among the top few stacks on both sites and look like a high-quality option taking on middling Lions starter Jung-hyun Baek. Baek has been unspectacular through most of his career and offers nothing for KBO DFS owners to get excited about on the pitching side. This should be someone the Twins get to in a big way. The ownership on them isn’t great though, getting to unique builds is a challenge with Ramos pulling more than 30% ownership on both sites and other quality bats like Chun-woong Lee ($8/$3,200) and Ji-hwan Oh ($9/$3,600) getting more attention up top. Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,100) and Kang-nam Yoo ($10/$4,500) are similarly popular but productive members of this lineup. The lowest publicly exposed players are at the bottom of this lineup for good reason, but Keun-woo Jeong ($7/$3,000) and Ju-hyeon Jung ($9/$2,400) are the two guys to mix and match from the very bottom.
Last night’s Lions love didn’t last. I just don’t like the looks of the matchup for them here today against Tyler Wilson. The Twins import starter hasn’t dominated KBO hitters so far in 2020, but he’s been mostly solid and makes a tough matchup for these bats. The Lions land in the bottom half of stack rankings and don’t provide much edge in ownership. The pricing and value this team provides is where they really shine. You can make almost anything work by sticking a few of their better bats in a stack at $8 each on FanDuel. The spot is limited and it wouldn’t be my preference, but if you go for it keep an eye on where Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,000) is hitting again, he is good low in the order, better higher up. Sung-gon Lee ($5/$2,400) is hitting in the middle of this order and checks in at a low-low price. Ja-wook Koo ($10/$4,400) smashed a home run for KBO DFS owners last night and is probably still a touch under-priced for his quality.
SK Wyverns @ Lotte Giants – 9.0 run total (4.06/5.15) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 2-3-4-5-7
The Giants come into this series looking for a three-game sweep to vault them over .500 on the season and continue their quest for KBO relevance. As the league’s most popular team you can bet there are plenty of fans pulling for just that, and we’ll be getting some KBO fans back in stadiums starting this weekend, so it could be a fun watch.
The Wyverns are getting dangerously close to Eagles territory at the bottom of the standings, their 14 wins just barely ahead of the 12 of the Eagles. Two of ten teams playing less than .300 ball makes for an interesting league sometimes. The Wyverns get Adrian Sampson who has settled into the KBO over his last two starts, after several shaky outings to start his overseas career. The righty should have little difficulty with this low-end Wyverns lineup. Tae-in Chae ($5/$2,200) is a very cheap bat in the middle of this lineup. You can play him with the two obvious hitters in front of him in this lineup (Romak/Choi) as a three-man, or connect him with Kang-min Kim ($7/$3,000) and Jae-won Lee ($6/$3,600) for very cheap, very unpopular and likely to fail construction.
The Giants are one of just three teams with an implied team total above 5 runs tonight, putting them firmly on the board as a potential stack. KBO DFS players are on top of this one though, the Giants will be well over-exposed on FanDuel based on current ownership projections. On DraftKings they’re somewhat more playable. They rank in the middle of the stack tool on both sites and should provide some offensive opportunity. Watch out for how this batting order falls, they’ve been moving a few guys around to see what works best. I think our projected lineup is their best setup for tonight, but we’ll see. Hoon Jung ($9/$3,700) has been hitting in the top few spots and makes a good inexpensive entry point to this stack. Chi-hong An ($9/$3,300) looks to climb back up the batting order while Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,300) moves back to a strong RBI spot. Byung-hun Min ($9/$3,200) makes a creative point of differentiation from the nine spot if you use him as a wrap-around to the to of this lineup.
Kiwoom Heroes @ KT Wiz – 9.0 run total (4.99/4.20) – Suggested Stack(s): Heroes 1-5
The Heroes blew up last night for a 10-run performance that featured a double-dong by slugger Byung-ho Park. Park is now up to 13 on the season and his bat has been coming around since his recent mini break. The Wiz won without doing too much to excite, although Mel Rojas Jr. did hit another home run and Han-joon Yoo contributed one of his own, so these bats could have quietly paid off for some KBO DFS players last night. Tonight looks like it has the makings of a pitcher’s duel however with both of these teams drawing implied totals under five.
The Heroes will look to continue their hot run that has resulted in an 8-2 record over their last 10, vaulting them to within three of the mighty Dinos atop standings. The matchup against Odrisamer Despaigne is a tough spot, but the Heroes rank second in the stack tool on both sites and are drawing good projections from Awesemo as well as quality marks in my home run model. The issue with these guys is their popularity, most of the bats we want to play will be in a lot of lineups. Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,500) is a great power option but he’s 35% owned on FanDuel and 25% on DraftKings. Dong-won Park ($9/$5,300) and Keon-chang Seo ($10/$4,400) can help offset some of that, but they’re not unpopular themselves. You might get away with dropping a spot down to Byung-woo Jeon ($5/$2,300) as a way to get different, but now we’re starting to ask a lot of guys with diminishing probability of providing returns.
On the Wiz side it’s just a tough matchup against KBO ace Eric Jokisch. He’s been pitching very well and even with regression from his current 1.42 earned run average certainly in the mail, his 3.13 FIP is nice and sharp and suggests he’s been performing in a real and repeatable way. Basically no one will be on these bats tonight, if you’re just a huge fan of the 1978 musical and need to get some Wiz in your lineups feel free to go straight to the big flashy names. Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$5,900) has one of the better bats in the KBO most nights, Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,100) provides similarly high-end power and quality behind him. Jeong-dae Bae ($10/$2,700) up top and Han-joon Yoo ($11/$2,900) make reasonable add-ons to stretch things out, but I’m not sure I would go much beyond a few three-man deployments with these guys tonight.
Favorite KBO DFS Stack: Kia Tigers
HR Call: Hyun-soo Kim – LG Twins
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