If I recently promised you that we’d get updated KBO bullpen rankings at some point this week, my humble apologies for the brief delay. I’ll try to get it together for tomorrow. Instead, for today we get to talk about the weather for KBO DFS again. Depending on who you believe there could be anywhere from one to five games threatened by rain tonight.
Interestingly, the folks over at Cracked, where you should get all your science, had a piece the other day that discussed how the accuracy of weather reporting was being impacted globally by the dramatic reduction in air travel. Apparently, we get a hell of a lot of data about air pressure and such from sensors on planes as they fly around the globe. Losing that data has made weather models all over the world go wonky. So, if we get screwed by the weather in South Korea again… I guess chalk it up to 2020.
Valuable bats came from strange places all over the slate last night, with even a couple nine hitters contributing. The “Billy Hamilton of the KBO,” Chan-ho Park of the Tigers, was one of those, in possibly the home run my model anticipated least this season. On the pitching side of things, Raul Alcantara ran away with the top of scoring, while Eric Jokisch put up the other mostly mandatory start of the night, while Sung-young Choi delivered some quality at his low-low price.
KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters
The slate could be a mess. As of now I’m rolling with what MyKBO is reporting for the weather, but you’re going to want to be awake and aware in the hour before lock. The run totals tonight are nothing to get excited about, with just two games cracking the ten run mark and numerous teams implied for something in the mid-fours in runs. We might be able to find some opportunity with high quality stacks in pay-up spots again tonight as we look through options.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
NC Dinos @ LG Twins – 9.0 run total (5.20/4.01) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos 3-4-5-6-8
The Dinos broke loose for KBO DFS owners last night with an 8-run game, the second highest team total on the slate. From the top of Awesemo’s stack rankings they made for a high-quality play and rewarded those who stuck with them and also got to the less-than hitters toward the bottom of the lineup who delivered the game’s big hits. Those of us who took the night off to talk on zoom, play poker and drink scotch instead were a bit less happy about the Dinos’ relative success. The Twins should have just stayed home.
Chan-gyu Lim is having a nice year for the Twins so far. He sits tenth among qualified KBO starters in strikeout percentage, but this team will give him a test running nine quality bats here. The Dinos have the third highest run total on the slate and rank second in stacks on both sites. This could well be a spot where they disappoint or are only adequate against a quality pitcher, but I like their chances to deliver good value and Awesemo’s projections look like they agree. Sung-bum Na ($18/$5,800) is the natural starting point in this lineup for me when he doesn’t appear until halfway down this team’s ownership rankings. The big lefty is smoking KBO pitching this season to the tune of a .300/.366/.587 line with 15 home runs and 47 RBIs. Let someone else make the mistake of leaving him out, this is a great pay-up spot. All three of Suk-min Park ($10/$4,700), Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,500), and Hee-dong Kwon ($9/$3,000) are forecast for extremely low ownership and could make sense as stack pivots or direct plays.
The Twins have a tough matchup tonight with Drew Rucinski taking the mound. Rucinski has been one of the better pitchers in the KBO so far this season. His 3.84 FIP is still good despite being a lot further from his crisp 2.30 earned run average than I’d like. The bats rank last in stacks on both sites for the Twins here and it makes sense with the lowest total on the slate nearly dropping under four. The only good news is that if you play the Twins you’ll be mostly alone, so you can use them however you’d like. There’s quality in this lineup but this isn’t one of those sneaky-good spots. If you want to use them just go right to the best bats in Hyun-soo Kim ($15/$4,600), the far too cheap Eun-sung Chae ($13/$2,900), and Roberto Ramos ($17/$4,800) will all be low-owned for a change. That makes a fine three-man, attach Chun-woong Lee ($8/$2,800) up top and, probably, the obvious Kang-nam Yoo ($10/$4,600) in the six spot and at catcher on DraftKings.
Doosan Bears @ Lotte Giants – 10.5 run total (6.15/4.60) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 1-2-3-4-6
The Bears put up a 6-run night with big contributions from Kun-woo Park and Jose Miguel Fernandez last night, while the Giants put five on the board four of which came on two home runs by Dong-hee Han. Tonight’s game sees the slate’s highest total and only one of two games over 10 runs. This should be a spot to get some bats, but it’s also the game with the ugliest looking weather forecast, so there’s that.
The Bears rank at the top of the stack tool on both sites tonight and look phenomenal in Awesemo’s projections. There’s a bit of an edge in the current team ownership projections as well, so if this one plays the Bears could be key. Kyoung-min Hur ($10/$4,300) moves back down the lineup but is an interesting bat to attach to the back-end of stacks and he plays a quality position on DraftKings. With Kun-woo Park ($14/$4,900) back at the top of this batting order the team finds its catalyst again, and this should be a great spot for them to roll. Looking at projections the entire to of the lineup is in play, and you can easily argue for any of the other guys, particularly where position is important. As an inexpensive relatively low-owned catcher Se-hyuk Park ($7/$4,300) makes a lot of sense as one of those late plays.
The Giants bats aren’t in a great spot here against Chris Flexen, although the starter has been up and down a bit through his KBO season. The power in this lineup flashes a little in my home run model today, despite the quality opposing pitcher, but those are individual marks that don’t always add up to the whole being a good stack. I think that’s the case today. The Giants rank in the bottom half of stacks tonight. If you go here I would start with Ah-seop Son ($13/$3,800) to take advantage of the discount in his price and get the splits matchup. Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,100) is typically this team’s best hitter in my model as well as Awesemo’s projections and it shows here once again. The late part of this lineup is where things get a bit tough, a lot rides on where Chi-hong An ($9/$3,100) hits once again, while Dixon Machado ($10/$4,600) looks good in my power model but not in the projections.
SK Wyverns @ Hanwha Eagles – 9.5 run total (4.63/5.08) – Suggested Stack(s): Wyverns 1-5
These two teams played largely irrelevant 3-run and 2-run games last night. This is going to be a matchup of by far the two worst teams in the league. The run total seems to me like Vegas just has no idea what to do with this one. Do two terrible lineups with bad pitchers and bad defense add up to a high scoring game or a 1-0 game? Should be fun to find out.
The Wyverns are the better of these two teams on paper, but they’re banged up in the injury department. The Eagles lineup, meanwhile, is a revolving door of mediocrity. The Wyverns do get Min-woo Kim who has given up the second-most home runs in the KBO among qualified starters, so maybe a bump to Jamie Romak ($13/$4,400) along with Tae-in Chae ($5/$2,400), and maybe Eui-yoon Jeong ($7/$2,700) as a cheap straight-line three-man stack. This team ranks around the middle of stacks tonight, but they look a bit over-owned. If you want to get different with things you can consider Suk-min Yoon ($6/$2,400) from later in the lineup.
The Eagles get Joo-han Kim who was downright bad over four innings last time out, in his third start of the year. He had been pitching well in two starts prior to that, but there’s not much opportunity on either side of this. The Eagles rank near the middle of stacks but they’re pulling twice as much ownership as their probability of being the best option, and they’re awful. I’m not sure why people want to flock to the Eagles tonight, but I won’t be among them in any big way. You can start from one and work down, with Yong-kyu Lee ($8/$3,900), Jun-hyeok Oh ($8/$4,200), and Jin-haeng Choi ($5/$3,600) who at least get you started off for only $21 initial spend on FanDuel. Cleanup hitter Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,900) is my home run model’s daily favorite bat from this team, and he is usually among Awesemo’s highest projected Eagles hitters. These are also the guys everyone else is playing. If you want to get different about things, Jin-ho Jung might be underwhelming but he’ll also be likely to be ignored hitting seventh.
Samsung Lions @ KT Wiz – 10.0 run total (4.45/5.78) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 2-6
The Lions were tamed, and the Wiz couldn’t really capture the magic last night with the teams scoring just two and four runs respectively. Odds-makers like tonight’s game to be a bit more interesting though, and it has the second highest total on the slate. The Wiz get the lion’s share… dammit, I see what I did there. The Wiz get the bulk of the implied runs tonight and look like a quality option.
The Lions interestingly rank in the top half of the stack tool despite the low total. If that projection and the ownership hold up they could be sneaky and in play. William Cuevas is on the mound for the Wiz tonight and he hasn’t set the KBO on fire so far this year. Hae-min Park ($7/$2,900) finds himself pushed down this batting order a little ways, making him less popular for the public and someone I’d like to keep an eye on for the bottom-end of my Lions stacks. The guys up top like Ja-wook Koo ($12/$4,700) and Won-seok Lee ($8/$3,900) are pretty popular, but if Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,200) hits third in between them again here it’s an angle I really like for KBO DFS players going to this stack. I don’t know that Min-ho Kang ($7/$3,800) is the low-owned catcher we want tonight though; I think we can get to better with the savings we still squeeze from Samsung stacks.
The Wiz bats are getting a healthy total that’s starting to get toward the 6-run territory. There is a lot to like about this stack again tonight, and the matchup is part of it. Overmatched 19-year-old starter Yoon-dong Heo is in a prime spot to get lit up by this team tonight. The Wiz rank third in stacks and aren’t in the too popular range, so feel free to run them out early and often here. The lineup with Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2,900) back up top seems to be back in business, once again I really like just getting from him to the five or six hitters here. Jeong-dae Bae ($10/$3,400) has mostly delivered wherever he’s been asked to hit and can make things happen with his legs and his bat. The team may shuffle Sung-woo Jang ($8/$3,400) up in the lineup again, if they do you can get him into some of those open catching spots on DraftKings. The obvious quality here is in Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,500) who has ignited the KBO to a .374/.427/.705 line with 19 home runs and 52 RBIs so far this year. Yeah, you want him in your Wiz lineups.
Kiwoom Heroes @ Kia Tigers – 9.0 run total (4.69/4.49) – Suggested Stack(s): Heroes 2-3-4-6-7
The Heroes played a mostly flat game from a KBO DFS perspective last night, while the Tigers were probably the most exciting team to own in their 10-4 romp. Trailing 4-3 after five, the Tigers rallied with a three run sixth, and then went over the top on an eighth inning grand slam off the bat of Ji-wan Na.
Tonight, the total comes down for both of these teams. With both of them well below five runs a lot of popular high-end KBO bats are in a tough spot here, and it will be interesting to see how the public handles these exposures. Both teams rank in the bottom half of stacks on both sites, but the Heroes look like the better option with their slightly higher total, and they have an ownership edge opportunity on FanDuel if you’re feeling frisky over there. The Heroes have big Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,300) who was strangely spotted taking left-handed swings before the game last night but will no doubt stride to the right-hand batter’s box against a lefty starter tonight. I like his chances to hit one out. Putting him together with the guys in front of him in the order here makes a ton of sense. You can also look in the other direction and include Dong-won Park ($9/$5,100) who is a less popular but higher-quality catching option on DraftKings. Keon-chang Seo ($11/$4,400) is both cheap and unpopular, which is a bad combination for a dinner date but exactly what we’re looking for in KBO DFS.
The Tigers draw Won-tae Choi tonight. Choi has shown some quality through his short KBO career so far and Vegas is giving him his due with the low implied total for the Tigers here. They rank next to last among stacks on both sites and, unlike their opponents, don’t present much of an opportunity. In fact I straight up dare Chan-ho Park ($9/$3,300) to hit another unexpected home run like that tonight. Don’t worry about getting to him as anything but a wrap-around differentiator in limited deployment. The bats you want are up top here. Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,400) hit that grand slam and typically looks strong in both my home run model and Awesemo’s projections. Tonight is no exception. Min-sang Yoo ($7/$2,900) won’t be too popular on either site. He occupies first base over better options if you go to him on DraftKings, so it’s probably more a pivot play than the best positional option. He’s a quality bat though, if people are skipping over him and you plan on playing these guys anyway, make sure to click his name.
Favorite KBO DFS Stack: Bears
HR Call: Mel Rojas Jr. (KT Wiz)
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