Kluber is popping up as my number one pitcher, not that anyone will be shocked by that. Kluber is one of the best pitchers in baseball, so I don’t need to talk about his specifics. The Orioles have the lowest implied total of the slate. Kluber has the best chance to pick up a win, and should be able to pick up a bunch of strikeouts in the process, with the Orioles having the highest swinging strike rate in baseball.
On a different slate, I would have an overwhelming amount of Luis Severino. Kluber is muting that, but don’t get it twisted: Severino is an elite play. The Blue Jays have the second lowest implied total, and they rank 6th in swinging strike rate. You can’t go wrong paying up for the two best pitchers tonight.
If you’re looking for some savings, my first look would go to Miles Mikolas. The Reds have the fourth lowest implied total of the slate. While they actually don’t have a lot of free swingers in the lineup (3rd lowest swinging strike rate), the contact they do make is bad. The Reds have a wRC+ of 75, which is 27th in all of baseball. They are one of two teams (Marlins) that have an ISO under .100. Mikolas can cruise here, with the potential for an extended start due to the weakness of the Reds bats.