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The Deep Dive: MLB DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | Monday, 9/13

Adam Scherer



Free MLB DFS picks today from Stokastic fantasy baseball projections and rankings, and the best lineups & value targets for DraftKings & FanDuel 7/3.

The MLB DFS Deep Dive is back! This article is intended to give you an in-depth look at the top MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on the day’s fantasy baseball slate. It is recommended that you use this article in conjunction with Awesemo’s MLB projections, ownership projections and the Top Stack tool.

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MLB DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Sept. 13

Top Pitchers

Sandy Alcantara ($9,600 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel) is expensive in his matchup against the Nationals, but he is also in the midst of a very strong season. He has a 24.3% strikeout rate and 3.50 xFIP while allowing just 0.95 home runs per nine innings and a 6.5% walk rate. It is worth noting, however, that he has been much better at home than on the road this season, which makes sense given the favorable pitching conditions in Miami. Alcantara has struck out 21.1% of hitters and has a 4.06 xFIP, 7.9% walk rate and 1.24 home runs per nine innings on the road this season, compared to 27.4% strikeout rate, 2.98 xFIP, 5.2% walk rate and 0.67 home runs per nine innings at home. It is a decent matchup for Alcantara, and he has plenty of upside, but he needs to be low owned in GPPs to be playable at this price.

Yu Darvish ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) is coming off a strong start against the Angels and gets a difficult matchup tonight against the Giants. The game will be played in San Francisco, however, which is a bump for Darvish. His results recently have been poor, as he has allowed a .354 wOBA and 2.3 home runs per nine innings with a 6.84 ERA over his last 10 starts. His underlying numbers are much better, however, as he has held hitters to a .277 xwOBA and his 3.53 xFIP is more than three runs better than his ERA. He also has 22.4% home runs per fly ball over those 10 starts, compared to a career average of 13.6%. He has maintained a healthy 27.3% strikeout rate over those starts while walking just 4.6% of hitters. Darvish’s 29.3% strikeout rate leads the slate, and he has walked 5.6% of hitters and has a 3.66 xFIP. He is in a dangerous matchup, but his salary is slightly discounted thanks to a string of poor performances recently that seem to mostly be the result of bad luck.

Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) has struck out 27.2% of hitters over the course of 27 starts this season. He has an inflated 5.15 ERA but a strong 3.48 xFIP that suggests he has been unlucky. He faces the Mariners tonight in Seattle, where he is less likely to run into bad luck on home runs than he is at Fenway Park. The Mariners’ projected lineup has a balance of lefties and righties, but it does not matter much for Rodriguez. He has struck out 25.9% of right-handed hitters this season while limiting them to a .126 xISO and .288 xwOBA. Left-handed hitters have done more damage, with a .215 xISO and .318 xwOBA (looking at Kyle Seager here), but they have also struck out 32.7% of the time.

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Alek Manoah ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has a difficult matchup against the Rays, who are also getting a positive park shift playing in Toronto. While the Rays have an extremely dangerous lineup, they also offer plenty of strikeout upside. Their active roster has struck out 24.3% of the time against right-handed pitching this season while also posting a 114 wRC+, .332 wOBA and .207 ISO. Manoah has a 25.8% strikeout rate, 4.34 xFIP and 1.16 home runs allowed per nine innings. There is a ton of downside here but also the potential for a very big game. If the Rays hitters are popular, get more Manoah. If Manoah is popular, roster more Tampa Bay bats. If neither is popular, play both sides because it means that the field is relying too heavily on median projections rather than considering the full range of outcomes.

Logan Gilbert ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has another difficult matchup tonight as he faces the Red Sox. Gilbert has had a string of difficult matchups recently, facing Houston in three of his last five starts and Toronto in another one. Over those five starts he has only struck out 21.0% of hitters and has a 4.65 xFIP compared to his 26% strikeout rate and 4.05 xFIP this season as a whole. There is certainly no guarantee that Gilbert will fare any better tonight against Boston, but he is too talented for this price point, and the Red Sox only have a 3.9 implied run total.

Paolo Espino ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is basically the opposite of Gilbert. He is far less talented, but he also has a favorable matchup against the Marlins, and he has a 27.2% strikeout rate and 3.66 xFIP over his last five starts. The Marlins’ active roster has a 25.2% strikeout rate, an 80 wRC+ and .284 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. That said, there is a good chance Espino will pull a lot of ownership given the matchup, and it is never a bad idea to pivot away from below-average pitchers when they are popular in tournaments.

Top Hitters

Carson Kelly ($3,300 DraftKings/$2,500 FanDuel)

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Brandon Belt ($3,800 DraftKings/$3,400 FanDuel)

Jazz Chisholm ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,300 FanDuel)

Alex Bregman ($4,200 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel)

Corey Seager ($4,300 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel)

Michael Brantley ($4,100 DraftKings/$2,600 FanDuel)

LaMonte Wade Jr. ($3,100 DraftKings/$2,900 FanDuel)

Jesus Sanchez ($3,000 DraftKings/$2,700 FanDuel)

Top Stacks

Note: Be sure to check out the Top Stacks Tool to compare a team’s chances of success to their aggregate ownership.

  1. Houston Astros
  2. Los Angeles Dodgers
  3. Tampa Bay Rays

Top Under-owned Stacks: Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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