MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, Home Runs, Optimal Picks | Today, 8/22/21

Sunday’s wild MLB DFS slate has already dropped games, with the Yankees postponing theirs early yesterday and the Red Sox game dropping off the board this morning as Hurricane Henri churns along the Atlantic Coast. The eight remaining games feature an uninspiring pitching slate that is short on quality options and, consequently, a somewhat loaded hitting slate. This is definitely a time to spread out pitching shares among the few viable options while extending some unsafe shares to some of the other options on the board to capture a range of outcomes.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.

Home Run Ratings

Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Dansby Swanson — 11.67

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 13.76

Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 9.51

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez — 15.67

Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 5.93

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 10.54

Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel — 5.78

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 11.62

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 12.74

Milwaukee Brewers: Eduardo Escobar — 11.98

Pittsburgh Pirates: Colin Moran — 6.35

Seattle Mariners: Abraham Toro — 4.25

St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 3.54

Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 22.43

Toronto Blue Jays: Teoscar Hernandez — 13.14

Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 8.05


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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

A weak Sunday afternoon slate of arms is topped by luminaries such as Adam Wainwright, Sandy Alcantara and Framber Valdez. The trio represents the slate’s highest priced options on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is an immediate tell for the underlying quality available. Additional options behind this trio are shaky at best, with Steven Matz, Adrian Houser and Touki Touissant standing as the next tier of options. John Means and Tyler Anderson are veterans in terrible matchups but affordable prices.

Wainwright has pitched well through most of the season. He comes in with a 3.83 xFIP and a 1.09 WHIP across 154.2 innings in 24 starts this season. He strikes out 22.5% of hitters and has a respectable 6.2% walk rate. He is fairly good at limiting quality contact, allowing just a 6.6% barrel rate and a 37.6% hard hit. He induces only an eight percent swinging strike rate but has always worked well in the zone and maintains a solid 30.3% CSW. Wainwright draws a bad Pirates team that is not even good at avoiding strikeouts anymore, having slipped to the middle of the league with a 23.7% strikeout rate. The Pirates have just a .137 collective ISO against righties with a 2.77% home run rate and they create runs 19% behind the average. This is a strong upside spot for Wainwright, though he is likely to be crushingly popular on both sites.

Alcantara faces a tough Reds lineup that is one of baseball’s best against right-handed pitching. Cincinnati strikes out at just a 22.8% rate, the eighth-best mark in the league against righties. They have a collective .196 ISO, 4.4% home run rate and 111 WRC+. This is an upside offense and likely a both-sides situation for MLB DFS purposes. Alcantara is one of the more talented starters on the slate, but the situation is less than ideal. He has thrown 151.1 innings this season, making 25 starts and tuning up a 3.85 xFIP with a 1.14 WHIP. He has struck out just 21.7% of hitters and has walked 7.1%, both marks come in worse than Wainwright’s, but he allows a 5.3% barrel rate and just a 4.7-degree average launch angle that help keep him safe. Alcantara has upside, and the opponent could conceivably keep his ownership lowerthan it should be given the dearth of quality options on the slate.

Another low strikeout rate option lands as one of the top plays on the mound. Houston’s Framber Valdez is a groundball specialist who strikes out just 21.9% of hitters over his 91 innings in 15 starts this season. He is expensive on both sites and will likely be popular as well. He has pitched to a 3.65 xFIP with a 1.32 WHIP this season, inducing a 10.3% swinging strike rate but working to just a 27.8% CSW that leads to his ugly 10.5% walk rate. Valdez is spectacular for contact, inducing a -5.3-degree average launch angle from opposing bats with a 69.3% groundball rate. He faces a Seattle team that sits 11th in baseball with a 3.97% home run rate against left-handed pitching this season, but also strikes out 26.1% of the time, near the bottom of baseball. The Mariners have a .163 collective ISO and 90 WRC+. Valdez seems likely to take the power bats out of Seattle’s hands, and they are less than stellar at creating runs otherwise. With a few bonus strikeouts on the table, this is a potential upside play.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves continue their series in Camden Yards, taking on John Means which plays to the team’s strengths. Atlanta is the slate -leading team in the power index above, with nearly the entire lineup tracking for an above average chance at a long ball. Means has a .235 batting average on balls in play against – a mark that has climbed significantly of late, his luck is failing. He allows a 10.5% barrel rate and a 20.7-degree average launch angle, both prime home run creation marks. He is good at limiting hard hits however, coming in with a 36.1% hard-hit rate and an 86.8 mph average exit velocity allowed. This is doing little to temper the expectations on Atlanta’s bats. Go-to options include Ozzie Albies, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall and Joc Pederson, while Guillermo Heredia and William Contreras can fill in as-needed.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays face Reynaldo Lopez in his fourth start of the season. Lopez has managed to strike out 28.9% of hitters over 25 innings this year but has also walked 7.8%. He has been decent for contact, coming in with just a 35.1% hard-hit rate, though he has yielded too many barrels at 8.8%. He is still trying to find his way, but there are encouraging signs in his 11.7% swinging strike rate and 0.72 WHIP . Still, the Rays tend to brutalize mistakes from right-handed pitchers, which Lopez has a demonstrable tendency to throw. Tampa Bay’s active roster is second in the league with a 4.77% home run rate against righties, and they have a .207 ISO in the split. The Rays create runs 15% better than the average against right-handed pitching this season, though they do strike out at a 24.8% clip. Overall, Tampa Bay has upside, though this is likely to be a popular stack this afternoon. Obvious Rays bats include Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Nelson Cruz, Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena, while Ji-man Choi, Joey Wendle, Mike Zunino and Kevin Kiermaier can all add quality and correlation.

Baltimore Orioles

On the other side of the Camden Yards game, the hometown Orioles look interesting in their matchup against Touki Toussaint. He has thrown 33.2 innings in the majors this season and has been mostly respectable with a 25% strikeout rate and a 4.23 xFIP. However, his tendency to allow premium contact cannot be ignored. Toussaint has yielded an 8.9% barrel rate with a 14.3-degree average launch angle and a massive 48.9% hard-hit rate, with 92 mph average exit velocity. Those are major home run indicators, and the ball could be flying out of this park all afternoon on both sides. If Toussaint comes up as a popular pitching option, this play gets better for wiping out a portion of the field if it connects. The Orioles are an average baseball team. They have a 3.53% home run rate and .163 ISO against righties that sit in the middle of the league, as does their 23.5% strikeout rate in the split.

Cedric Mullins has slashed .309/.371/.526 with a .217 ISO and 21 home runs this season. He adds 22 stolen bases and is one of the top leadoff men in baseball between the on-base acumen and speed. Mullins is a terrific option on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Trey Mancini has 20 home runs this season. He has first base and outfield eligibility on the blue site, where he costs just $3,100. On DraftKings, Mancini is a $4,800 outfielder who should still be rostered despite the price bump and removal of flexibility. He has a 112 WRC+ in 488 plate appearances this season and comes in with a 41.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.3% barrel rate.

Anthony Santander hits from both sides of the plate and is in the midst of another power surge. He has reached 12 home runs in his 321 plate appearances and has a .186 ISO and 93 WRC+. For a player who took some time to get started this year, those represent improved numbers across the board. Santander has a 43% hard-hit rate and a 9% barrel rate. Both he and Mullins are matchup proof atop this lineup as well, adding to the appeal.

Ryan Mountcastle has hit 21 home runs in his 419 plate appearances this year, delivering on his prospect profile and draft pedigree. Mountcastle is slashing .264/.308/.484 for the season and has a .220 ISO that leads the team. His WRC+ stands 13% above average.

Austin Hays or D.J. Stewart will likely occupy this spot. Hays hits from the right side of the plate and has knocked 13 home runs out of the park this season. He has a .172 ISO and slashes just .235/.285/.407, however. Stewart is a lefty power option who has hit 10 home runs in 272 plate appearances but has just a .168 ISO and is slashing a lowly .198/.316./.366 this season. Hays is the better option but would be in play in this spot in the lineup.

Ramon Urias slots in at second and third base for just $3,100 on the DraftKings slate and is a $2,200 second baseman on FanDuel. Urias is slashing .263/.336/.409 with a .146 ISO. He is not a great option for power, but he has a 108 WRC+ this season and has reasonable hit and on-base skills. Urias is not a player to go out of one’s way for, but for lineup filler at a cheap price, MLB DFS gamers could do worse than his 42.4% hard-hit rate and 11.8% barrel rate.

Maikel Franco costs just $2,800 on DraftKings and $2,600 on FanDuel, providing clear price-based upside. Unfortunately, on the field, Franco has just a .210/.254/.356 triple slash with a .146 ISO and has a 65 WRC+. Franco is a difficult option to trust, but he can help offset cost and ownership and has at least some upside for power.

Catcher Pedro Severino has hit nine home runs this season, which is all of his upside. He slashes .234/.303/.369 and has just a .135 ISO and 85 WRC+

Jorge Mateo would be a more interesting way to round out this lineup than Richie Martin. Mateo has made 148 plate appearances and his blazing speed has been on display. Long considered one of the fastest men in the minors, he has never truly connected for an extended stay in MLB. This season he has stolen eight bases and is slashing .255/.286/.383.

HR Call: Miguel Cabrera — Detroit Tigers

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.

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Author
Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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