Thursday brings short-slate MLB DFS action with only five games on the board. This set of matchups is unusually thin on the pitching front, even for a short slate. There are scant few reliable options and a lack of major mound upside that should drive much of the slate’s focus to combinations of bats and stacks. With a lack of quality arms on the mound, plus a Coors Field game on tap, there should be significant scoring potential on the slate. The Top Stacks Tool is going to show a large portion of the field flocking to the game in Colorado for offense; after all, that game has a 12.5 run total that is five full runs higher than several other contests. Finding other spots and navigating the rocky shoals of today’s shallow pitching pool will be key to building differentiated high-scoring lineups. Taking advantage of Awesemo’s expert MLB DFS projections is the best bet for today.
Daily Fantasy Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it will not always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Austin Riley — 12.85
Boston Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe — 11.10
Chicago Cubs: Frank Schwindel — 7.87
Cleveland: Franmil Reyes — 15.15
Colorado Rockies: Ryan McMahon — 12.29
Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 11.67
Miami Marlins: Jazz Chisholm — 7.19
New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 4.68
Pittsburgh Pirates: Yoshi Tsutsugo — 9.94
Tampa Bay Rays: Nelson Cruz — 11.72
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Picks: Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Ensure to check out the Awesemo Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
A fully stretched-out Carlos Carrasco stands as the top option on the MLB DFS pitching slate today. He threw seven innings in his most recent outing after ramping up to five in the start prior to that. Carrasco leads an ugly board on the Top Pitchers Tool on both sites. After Carrasco, Eduardo Rodriguez and Shane McClanahan will duel in the Red Sox – Rays game in Tampa Bay, which puts both starters in jeopardy while also giving them enough upside to vault toward the top of the heap. Cleveland’s Triston McKenzie makes for an interesting option, he has delivered extreme highs and deep lows for MLB DFS scoring this season.
Carrasco has been sharp since his return. He has a 23% strikeout rate with a 3.68 xFIP and has induced a 13.1% swinging strike rate over 23.1 innings in six starts since his return. With his depth built back up, it is reasonable to expect Carrasco to chase a quality start and a win bonus. He has walked just four percent so far but typically yields a few additional free passes, his career walk rate is 6.2% and he has a 1.20 career WHIP. The strikeout rate is also slightly below par for Carrasco, his career mark is 25.5% and in recent seasons he was pitching in the 28 to 29.5% range. In the short sample, Carrasco has allowed a few too many barrels, coming in at 8.2% but the quality contact has not turned into as many hard hits as may be expected, with his rate at just 37% and an average exit velocity of 89.1 mph. Carrasco will face a Marlins lineup that is ranked near the bottom of the league in virtually every offensive category. Miami’s active roster has a .126 ISO and a 2.57% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season, ranking last and third from the bottom, respectively. The Marlins strike out 25.1% of the time in the split and the team creates runs 19% worse than average. Carrasco has upside in this matchup, but he will be incredibly popular on this slate. As by far the most reliable high-upside option available, he is projected for more than 60% ownership on the DraftKings slate and is approaching 50% on FanDuel. He is inexplicably priced at $6,800 on the blue site and will probably be even more popular for the cost and matchup by the time lock arrives. Carrasco is the most likely pitcher to succeed, but pivoting at least some ownership shares to the other available options is a way to get immediately different on a short slate.
McClanahan is in a far more challenging position, but rates as one of the better options on the slate. He draws a loaded Red Sox lineup that is among baseball’s best. However, Boston finds far more of their success against right-handed pitching this season. Against lefties, the active Red Sox roster has a .163 ISO and a 3.46% home run rate that are both around the middle of the league. They still limit strikeouts well, coming in with a 21.9% rate that stands ninth best in baseball and they create runs three percent better than average. McClanahan has thrown 100.1 innings in 20 starts this season. He has a 27.7% strikeout rate and a 3.24 xFIP with a stellar 14.9% swinging-strike rate, a 31.7% CSW and a 1.29 WHIP. He walks a few too many at 7.3% but that is not a problematic number. He does yield quality contact, however, coming in at a 9.9% barrel rate and a 44.5% hard hit, with 91.3 mph average exit velocity allowed. He tends to keep the ball down, giving up just an 8.7-degree average launch angle to opposing hitters, but Boston features a few powerful right-handed bats who specialize in taking advantage of that type of contact profile, despite the aggregate team numbers. The top five hitters in the Red Sox lineup have an average of a 15.6% barrel rate and 48.1% hard-hit, with a .256 average ISO. This is a dangerous spot for any starter, McClanahan has strong upside and is a talented pitcher, but for his $10,100 price and more than 40% popularity on DraftKings, there is an argument to be made for the undercut and spread move here as well. He plays better on the FanDuel slate where he costs the same but is owned at roughly a third of the popularity.
For $9,000 and less than 25% projected popularity on DraftKings, Rodriguez is not getting the attention he deserves on the other side of this game. On FanDuel he costs just $8,200 and will be about as popular as his opponent. He has been an underappreciated asset all season. Despite a few downturns where earned runs have been an issue, Rodriguez has delivered quality upside in the right spots. Over 126.2 innings in 25 starts, Rodriguez has a bumpy 5.12 ERA but a sparkling 3.48 xFIP, which is telling about the degree to which luck and happenstance play a role in the run-scoring issues. He has a 27.5% strikeout rate with a 7.0% walk percentage on the season. He allows too many baserunners with a 1.39 WHIP, but that is largely a product of a .358 batting average on balls in play allowed. Rodriguez has induced an 11.6% swinging-strike rate and is good at limiting contact upside. The Rays are a good offense, but there are strikeouts available for left-handed starters. Tampa Bay sits fifth worst in baseball with a 24.3% strikeout rate in the split, and their .164 ISO and 3.55% home run rate are only league average. The Rays still create runs six percent ahead of the average in the split despite those marks, they could find run-scoring opportunities against this starter, but there is clear upside for Rodriguez at his price and popularity.
Young Triston McKenzie is going to make or break a lot of MLB DFS nights on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is projected to go under-owned on both sites in the afternoon update of Ownership Projections and he looks like a strong tournament play in the Top Pitchers Tool on both sites. McKenzie has thrown 91.1 innings in 18 starts this season after finally arriving as a long-awaited top prospect. He has a crisp 28.5% strikeout rate this season, but his 12.5% walk rate is as bad as that mark is good. He has a concerning 4.62 xFIP but a reasonable 1.15 WHIP and he induces a 12.8% swinging-strike rate on the season but has just a 27.8% CSW. McKenzie allows too much premium contact, giving up a 10% barrel rate with a 42% hard-hit and 90.7 mph average exit velocity. At a 22.6-degree average launch angle, those marks yield excellent home run upside, marks that are shining through for the Royals’ power hitters. Still, with his obvious upside against a team that is below average with a .146 ISO and a 3.10% home run rate against right-handed pitching this season. Kansas City creates runs 12% behind the average in the split but the active roster limits strikeouts to a clean 21.8% fifth best in baseball. With the field trailing McKenzie’s probability of being the top starter across the industry, this is the most obvious inflection point of the entire night. McKenzie’s talent is worth the exposure required to get beyond the field to a relevant degree, with a lack of other high-quality options he looks like a great GPP choice.
Coors Field
The Braves have the highest probability of being the top stack that I can remember seeing on either site all season long. Atlanta is a massive favorite and extremely likely to produce offense in a game that is totaled five runs higher than some of the other options on the board. The Rockies also profile well, given the heavy 12.5 run total that opened the day, but it is Atlanta that pulls away from the field while still showing slightly positive or at worst even leverage marks on both sites. The Braves are facing righty Chi Chi Gonzalez who has just a 13.2% strikeout rate over 94.2 innings this season. Gonzalez induces just a seven percent swinging-strike rate and has a 24.1% CSW. He has a 9.2% barrel rate with a 44.3% hard-hit and 90.3 mph average exit velocity. This is one of the most targetable pitchers in baseball pitching in the best park for offensive upside. The loaded Atlanta lineup features Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley, and Dansby Swanson. Travis d’Arnaud will be explosively popular at just $4,300 on the DraftKings slate. d’Arnaud has made just 140 plate appearances this season and is slashing .225/.279/.372 with four home runs and a .147 ISO. He has created runs 27% worse than average this year. In 184 plate appearances last year, d’Arnaud had a .212 ISO and hit nine home runs while slashing .321/.386/.533. At the levels of ownership for which he is projected, he could be considered skippable given the current-year quality, but it would not surprise to see him post the position’s best score on the night. Ehire Adrianza is a low-cost filler from the bottom of the lineup at the minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stacking the Rockies on the other side of the contest is an extremely negatively leveraged move on both sites tonight. Colorado faces Touki Toussaint, a righty who has a 24.1% strikeout rate over 40 innings in seven starts this season. Toussaint has allowed a massive 47.7% hard-hit rate with 91.7 mph average exit velocity and a 7.5% barrel rate this season, a contact profile that does not play at all well in this park. Colorado will be over-owned for their quality, however, with all their hitters projected for heavy ownership on both sites. They are less expensive on FanDuel, which is drawing significantly higher popularity marks, but even at prices over $5,000 the Rockies are popular up and down the lineup on DraftKings. Key hitters on this team include Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, C.J. Cron, and Ryan McMahon. Raimel Tapia has 19 stolen bases in 445 plate appearances this season but just a pedestrian .333 on-base percentage. Catcher Elias Diaz has a .219 ISO over 296 plate appearances this year. Sam Hilliard has hit nine home runs and has a .245 ISO in just 159 plate appearances this year, but he creates runs 26% worse than average and strikes out 38.4% of the time with just a 32.9% hard-hit rate. The flawed Rockies lineup is another major inflection point on this MLB DFS slate.
Miami Marlins
With such a large portion of the field rostering Carrasco on both sites, the Marlins warrant at least a moment’s consideration as a leverage play. Miami is projected at the bottom of the board, they have a low single-digits chance of being the top stack of the night, but they are drawing a similar ownership number against by far the slate’s most popular pitcher. It will not take much to get well ahead of the field on Marlins stacks, while still entering a quality portfolio of high-end lineups and it is a play that does not need to connect many times over the course of a season to be profitable. For all his qualities, Carrasco is not an apex predator of a pitcher. He strikes out plenty of hitters, but he has always put a few too many on base and has had several seasons in which he struggled with home run upside to varying degrees, though mostly in short-sample seasons. The Marlins are not a good baseball team. There are, however, a few interesting individual hitters in the lineup. The top five hitters in the lineup all create runs slightly above average by season-long WRC+ and there is moderate home run expectation. The key hitters in the Marlins lineup include Jazz Chisholm, Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez, Brian Anderson, and Lewis Brinson, all of whom will be owned in single digits across the industry.
Cleveland
Cleveland has significant upside as an under-owned stack on both sites. Cleveland will be facing lefty Mike Minor, who comes in with a 22.8% strikeout rate and a 4.34 xFIP. Minor has yielded a 9.9% barrel rate but limits hard hits to 37.4% with an 88.9 mph average exit velocity. At a 16.7-degree average launch angle, those are still projectable numbers for opposing home run upside. The Cleveland lineup is decidedly average overall, against left-handed pitching they have just a 3.64% home run rate and a .161 ISO while creating runs nine percent below par. They strike out 22.6% of the time in the split, which should at least combine with Minor’s lack of strikeout upside to put some balls in play.
Myles Straw is a speed specialist who has stolen 22 bases in his 507 plate appearances this year. Straw has improved his on-base acumen and hit tool throughout the course of a season that he began with the Astros. He is slashing .267/.342/.347 with a .080 ISO and he creates runs three percent worse than average by WRC+. He makes a reasonable correlation play with other hitters in the lineup, but the individual upside is severely capped.
Amed Rosario has a solid 42.8% hard-hit rate for the season but just a 2.4% barrel rate. He is still developing at the plate, but he is slashing an extremely solid .289/.329/.426 with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases this season. Rosario is chasing the marks from 2019, his best season to date that saw him hit 15 home runs and steal 19 bases while slashing .287/.323/.432. Rosario is in play for just $4,300 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel.
Jose Ramirez comes in as Cleveland’s most expensive player by far at $5,900 on DraftKings and $4,500 on the blue site. Ramirez has hit 31 home runs while slashing .258/.346/.545 with a .287 ISO and creating runs 34% better than average over 511 plate appearances. He has a 43.1% hard-hit rate this year with an 11.6% barrel rate and he strikes out just 13.9% of the time while walking at a 10.8% clip. Ramirez is a very popular option despite the heavy price, but he plays very well in stacks with his lower-owned teammates and should not be skipped in lineup combinations.
Franmil Reyes leads Cleveland with a 17.1% barrel rate and 49.5% hard-hit percentage this season. He has hit 24 home runs and has a .280 ISO over just 361 plate appearances. He is one of the few hitters in this lineup that has a problematic strikeout rate, coming in at 31.3%, but the at-bats where he drives the ball are well worth the zeroes from his strikeouts. Reyes is fairly priced on DraftKings and is cheap on FanDuel, where he is drawing nearly three times as much ownership.
Harold Ramirez has made 284 plate appearances this season and he has a 48% hard-hit rate with a 15.1% strikeout rate that has translated into slashing .267/.306/.410 and six home runs with three stolen bases. Ramirez has created runs eight percent behind the curve for the season, largely due to an extremely low 4.2% walk rate. He makes solid contact and squares the ball up frequently enough with a 7.6% barrel rate. For a mere $2,100 on DraftKings and $2,400 on FanDuel, his contact profile alone is worth rostering if he is hitting fifth in this spot.
Oscar Mercado has made 160 plate appearances this season, delivering three home runs and five stolen bases with a WRC+ 15% below average in the small sample. He is slashing .236/.313/.361 with a .125 ISO and makes just 30.8% hard contact, but for the price and total lack of popularity, he is at least playable in this spot in the lineup. Mercado hit 15 home runs and stole 15 bases in just 482 plate appearances in 2019, making him a worthwhile talent for MLB DFS purposes.
Yu Chang has hit seven home runs and has a .220 ISO over 173 plate appearances. Chang provides underrated pop for a low salary and no ownership, making him an interesting upside play despite a WRC+ that sits 18% below the average. Hitting behind him in the lineup, catcher Austin Hedges is a less interesting option. Over 248 plate appearances this year, Hedges has disappointed with just a 27.7% hard-hit rate and a 3.1% barrel rate. He has hit seven home runs but has a lousy .112 ISO and is slashing a lowly .183/.228/.295 while creating runs 63% worse than average.
HR Call: Franmil Reyes — Cleveland
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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