MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 11
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
For seven seasons between 2012 and 2018, the now 36-year-old made the Mid-Summer Classic while he was in the American League, finishing in the top 6 each season for the Cy Young balloting.
After a less-than-stellar 2019 season, Sale conferred with Dr. James Andrews on the need for Tommy John surgery. He decided Sale didn’t need it, though after not getting right in the leadup to the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, Sale ended up succumbing to the procedure.
When he returned in 2021, he dealt with COVID and pneumonia, playing in just nine games. Then in 2022 he made a couple rehabilitation starts in the minors but only two outings in The Show, courtesy of a broken wrist from a bicycle accident.
Fast-forwarding back to the good stuff, Sale took home the Triple Crown for pitchers, becoming the first Atlanta ace to earn that honor, which is impressive considering the history of the franchise.
For Sunday, the Pirates do not have a daunting lineup, as lefty Oneil Cruz (left last night in extra innings with a sore back) and veteran switch-hitter Bryan Reynolds do their best work against righties. That leaves Bucs legend Andrew McCutchen, who has a long history of success against southpaws, and catcher Joey Bart if he is in the lineup as the only worrisome batsmen for Sale to handle.
Other options include RHPs Sandy Alcantara and Sean Burke facing the respective offenses for Miami and Chicago, which is about as good of a matchup either will see this season. Of course, the Marlins and White Sox are each projected for just over four runs, which shows the inherent risk of the struggling Alcantara and unproven youngster Burke.
Washington is hosting Cincinnati in the series finale with budding ace LHP MacKenzie Gore on the mound as the pitcher most likely to match Sale’s production. Minnesota RHP Pablo Lopez is also in play against a pesky but beatable Giants lineup that does perform better on the road.
In the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners are rolling out RHP Bryce Miller against Toronto. Anthony Santander is dealing with a shoulder issue and has not played since Thursday. He is questionable for today and may end up on the injured list. That takes one of the best bats away from the Blue Jays, which is a bonus for Miller.
Miller was the top prospect for the M’s 2023 class, ranking inside the best 75 on most industry lists. He is a level below RHPs Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, though deserving of being a mid-rotation starter. There have been a lot of walks this year with his 4.93 per nine innings this year, well above his 2.05 per nine in his first 55 starts. This is still a small 34.2-inning sample size, compared to the 311.2 frames in his first two years.
The strikeouts are similar with 8.31 per nine innings, and his power numbers are down, so this hopefully was just a random variance wrinkle. He will still need to navigate Vladimir Guerrero, Daulton Varsho and veteran George Springer, plus an overall paucity of available strikeouts, but he is the leading arm for the afternoon action.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Giolito missed 2024 after signing with Boston, ultimately ending his season in elbow surgery without playing for the Red Sox. This year, he has mostly used a fastball or changeup, eschewing any breaking pitches. That is not going to be an approach that will allow him to remain unscathed for long, so we want to arrive at this party early.
Superstar Bobby Witt Jr. is the mainstay for stacks and a phenomenal one-off this afternoon. Vinnie Pasquantino seems all but preordained to send one out of the park, and it is easy to round out full stacks from the top 4 with leadoff man Jonathan India and veteran Salvador Perez. Do not sleep on Maikel Garcia, who has newfound success this season in same-handed matchups, and he has the green light for steals.
The Rays are interesting with warm and humid weather in Tampa, which will turn George Steinbrenner Field into a launching pad. There is also a high chance of rain, and while spring showers in Florida tend to be intense, they also typically pass in an hour or two. If there were no precipitation risks, the Rays would be the official primary stack for the day.
Milwaukee will be riding with RHP Chad Patrick, who is mostly sticking in the rotation due to the absence of Aaron Civale, Nestor Cortes and Brandon Woodruff. The 26-year-old was a fourth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft, though he is not among the top prospects for the Brew Crew. He is likely to settle in as a spot starter or multi-inning reliever once the rest of the pitching staff is healthy. The Brewers used six relievers in Saturday’s extra-innings game and four on Friday, but none of their key contributors have worked more than once in the last three days.
Lefties Jonathan Aranda, Brandon Lowe and Kameron Misner are the trio to target, with righty Junior Caminero or inexperienced but speedy lefty Chandler Simpson in play to round out full stacks. The top half of the Milwaukee lineup is also in play against RHP Drew Rasmussen, as the fivesome of Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Brice Turang enjoy the same hitting environment as their Tampa counterparts.
Late Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Saturday’s game saw each team hit three home runs, and the Bronx Bombers got four on Friday. Severino is not a bad pitcher, but he is on the downslope for his career. This season he has posted 6.89 strikeouts per nine innings, which are well below the 10.53 per nine during his 2017 and 2018 heyday with the Yanks. He still gets just enough ground balls to be a serviceable innings-eater against mediocre teams, which is why the Athletics signed him to a three-year, $67 million deal, well outpacing his offer from the Mets after a one-season stopover with New York’s other baseball team.
Aaron Judge, Ben Rice and Trent Grisham comprise the first wave of Yankees, with venerable veteran Paul Goldschmidt, scorching hot Jasson Dominguez and catcher Austin Wells the secondary targets.
It has not yet been determined if RHP Clark Schmidt or RHP Mark Leiter Jr. is starting for New York, but the usual Athletics are all in play as well this afternoon. Arizona looks solid against RHP Tony Gonsolin, though the Chase Field roof will be closed. It is also prudent to make a leverage stack of the key Blue Jays, particularly if Miller ends up being the most popular pitcher on the slate as expected.
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Gonsolin has 17 strikeouts in 11 innings this season, though both of his starts were against Miami. Arizona is an upper-echelon offense with power, contact, speed and plate discipline. The projected lineup has a 9.8% walk rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last season and a solid 18.9% strikeout rate.
