MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 2
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
The only knock against Flaherty is that he has allowed 11 home runs in his 11 starts, though four occurred three weeks ago against the Texas Rangers. Corey Seager had two and Josh Smith hit one, with Joc Pederson rounding things out. There is no shame in the good hitters getting to a pitcher, and what hurler hasn’t been trying to strike out Pederson for the last half decade? Sometimes that is the cost of doing business in baseball, and with Flaherty averaging nearly 11 strikeouts per nine innings, it is an acceptable tradeoff.
On Yahoo, the Miami Marlins game (which has a 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch) is included in the featured slate. That means RHP Max Meyer is in play at $36 as an SP2. It is important to note that he had struggles over his last six starts after a couple of nice outings to begin the season. Across six appearances, he allowed four or more runs four times, with two games of zero strikeouts.
All told in this stretch, he was somewhat unlucky with a 6.98 ERA, outpacing both his 5.98 FIP and 4.51 xFIP in this span. In four of the games he had at least four strikeouts, so against what portends to be the worst team and offense in the history of the game, it makes sense to take a chance on the 26-year-old who is the second-best prospect for the Marlins and just inside the top 100 on most industry lists. To be clear, if he were not at home against the Rockies, we would not be having this conversation.
The other benefit for RHP Logan Webb is that he has averaged a 57.9% ground ball rate for his career. This season, he also has made his own magic at the plate with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings that are well above his 8.3-per0nine career rate and his previous top campaign of 9.6 back in 2021.
This is not a new baseline expectation, but it does look like Webb will be in the mid-8’s and potentially hold on for a strikeout per inning.
San Diego has plenty of hitters who have experience against Webb, with five in the expected lineup having seen Webb for at least 20 at-bats. Three-time batting champion Luis Arraez is 8-for-13.
Still, the five hitters with the most experience have a grand total of eight extra-base hits in 134 at-bats, only two of which were home runs.
Expect RHPs Joe Ryan and Luis Severino to get some traction with the shallower player pool as the Minnesota Twins and Athletics face off in West Sacramento. Temperatures are going to be in the upper 70s for most of the game with a light breeze of 9 to 14 mph heading out towards center field in this friendly hitting venue.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Cincinnati Reds
In the preceding eight games, the former MVP and two-time batting champion had been locked in with a .472/.513/.917 triple slash line across 36 at-bats, including five round-trippers, one double, three walks and two stolen bases. If he is out, the Brew Crew are better left as fill-ins around other primary stacks as outfielder Garrett Mitchell remains on the injured list.
Cincinnati plays in the most homer-happy venue in the league, which means a likely adventure for RHP Aaron Civale, who will be making his third start after missing nearly two months with a hamstring injury. Since the start of last year, Civale has allowed obscene power to hitters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate, with a combined .195 ISO, a low 34% ground ball rate and an elevated 45.7% hard-hit rate. That creates challenges with holding hitters in the park considering he also has a 30.3% fly ball rate.
But wait … there’s more … he also has an 8.8% swinging-strike rate in this timeframe, and to make matters worse, Milwaukee catcher William Contreras has allowed the 10th-most successful stolen base attempts since the start of last year. Elly De La Cruz (17 SBs) leadoff man TJ Friedl (9 SBs) and back-of-the-order infielder Matt McLain (11 SBs) all have the green light when on the basepaths.
De La Cruz, Friedl and Will Benson are the trio to target, with Gavin Lux and potentially Jake Fraley extending stacks, depending on where they are in the lineup.
Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins
Across 40.2 innings, spanning seven outings, Severino was saddled with a 6.20 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and all four of his round-trippers. By comparison, 31 innings across five appearances on the road, the veteran had a stellar 0.87 ERA and a 0.935 WHIP. The gap between these figures will likely narrow throughout the remainder of the season, but it also needs to be pointed out that Severino has seen his strikeout rate slide in each of the last six seasons, settling in at a 6.8 per nine this year — well below his 9.2 career average.
Minnesota should have everyone available tonight, save for utility man Luke Keaschall. That extends this lineup greatly, with Matt Wallner and Kody Clemens solid plays when they have the platoon advantage down at the bottom of the order. Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton are the targets at the top, and there are steady hitters in between these pairs such as righties Carlos Correa, catcher Ryan Jeffers and switch-hitter Brooks Lee. Ty France does not bring much power upside, particularly for a first baseman, but he is an excellent contact hitter who can keep stacks moving along.
The Twins currently have positive leverage on the main DFS sites, meaning that they are likely to be underrepresented in tournaments to a light degree. In Los Angeles, the Dodgers are facing RHP Paul Blackburn, who has been out with a knee strain. Last season after being traded from Oakland to New York at the deadline for RHP Kade Morris, Blackburn made five starts for the Mets before needing surgery to repair a fluid leak from his spine, which sounds terrifying from afar.
The 31-year-old journeyman made seven MiLB appearances, moving up through the levels and logging 87 and 84 throws in his last two outings for the Syracuse Mets. Despite being in The Show for nine seasons, injuries and ineffectiveness have limited Blackburn to 86 games, though he did earn an All-Star nod in 2022. Look to pretty much anyone in Dodger blue tonight as a stacking option. The salaries for Los Angeles are likely to keep their popularity mostly in check for the top 4 on DraftKings, but FanDuel and Yahoo have not been nearly aggressive with this core. Keep in mind that Mookie Betts missed the last couple of games with a fractured toe, though he is expected to give it a go at some point this series.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
The nice thing about Portfolio EV is that it is constantly scanning the markets for excellent wagers, so when there is someone getting out over their skis on the social sites of ProphetX or Novig, users are able to pounce. The +148 odds are well above the “true odds” of +129, and most books are offering this in the +110 to +115 range. Mayer has just six plate appearances in lefty-lefty situations, so the rookie may get tonight off. In this limited sample size, he has three strikeouts and a single. This season in Triple-A he did have 14 hits in 54 at-bats (.259), accompanied by 18 (33%) strikeouts, and he was at a similar rate last year at Double-A, going 16-for-62 (.258) with 16 strikeouts (26%).
