Thursday’s differently divided action features a 6:40 ET start with seven games on a FanDuel slate that omits the second game of the Angels vs Yankees doubleheader, while DraftKings starts at a standard 7:05 ET lock with that game included. There is rain in the forecast for the nightcap in the Bronx, leaving both the lineups and the potential for delay or postponement very much in question for game two. The pitching options are slightly more robust on FanDuel, with the inclusion of the starters from the Giants vs Marlins game, but both sites offer a few good options from the mutually included games, and both sites feature the loaded Coors Field contest between the Braves and Rockies. That matchup tops the board with an 11.5 run total, 1.5 runs ahead of the game in Cincinnati between the Nationals and Reds that sits second on the slate at a 10-run total. With the public eyeballing those two spots for bats quite heavily, pivoting to lower-owned positively leveraged hitters is a viable approach to handling the chalky bats on both sites tonight. Getting to a diverse spread that does not directly follow the public to the most obvious plays is an easy way to differentiate high-quality MLB DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves: Matt Olson — 11.19
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 6.10
Chicago Cubs: Patrick Wisdom — 12.77
Cincinnati Reds: Mike Moustakas — 10.00
Colorado Rockies: C.J. Cron — 7.30
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout — 12.72
Los Angeles Dodgers: Edwin Rios — 9.41
Miami Marlins: Jorge Soler — 6.51
Milwaukee Brewers: Tyrone Taylor — 6.82
New York Mets: Starling Marte — 3.43
New York Yankees: Anthony Rizzo — 11.57
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 6.35
San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski — 5.15
Seattle Mariners: Jesse Winker — 11.10
St. Louis Cardinals: Paul Goldschmidt — 7.17
Washington Nationals: Yadiel Hernandez — 8.48
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather in the Angels vs Yankees game is looking bleak, with about as much rain in the forecast as what caused yesterday’s postponement, this game will surely cause chaos leading up to lock on DraftKings, given the nature of how lineups are typically released for the back end of a double-header and the weather news, staying on top of any late-breaking information could be the difference between winning and losing. The slate also sees a threat of rain in Baltimore for the Mariners vs Orioles game, but that seems like the safer of the two potentially rainy contests.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The MLB DFS Thursday pitching slate shapes up with more depth on the FanDuel slate than it does with fewer options across town. The top-ranked pitcher by his probability of success rating is Sandy Alcantara, who will be taking the mound at a slate-high $11,000 against the Giants on the blue site. Alcantara will be dueling third-ranked Alex Wood, who comes in at heavy ownership and a significant negative leverage score for his low $7,400 price. Among the pitchers who appear on both sites, San Diego southpaw Sean Manaea is easily the best probability bet. Manaea tops the DraftKings slate with nearly a 50% ownership share at a negative leverage score, but he is somewhat unavoidable even if there is an undercut to the field’s exposure in play. Young Matthew Liberatore and Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin are ranked immediately behind that Manaea on the thin DraftKings board, with options like Jameson Taillon, Jordan Lyles and Chris Flexen also hovering at relevant shares of both probability and popularity. Outside of Manaea, the entire list of starters on DraftKings is flawed or in a bad situation, Ian Anderson is a talented young pitcher, but he has a tall order pitching at Coors Field, while Austin Gomber and the balance of remaining options are even less appealing for shares of MLB DFS lineups. This may well be a slate to follow along with the chalk on the mound to a fair degree, only shaving off minor shares of public popularity to spread to the bare options on the board. FanDuel gamers have the luxury of being able to spread out while also needing only one pitcher in each lineup, giving the slate a very different shape from site to site.
Both Sandy Alcantara and Alex Wood are in play for the FanDuel slate this evening. Wood draws a Marlins lineup that has been far better against right-handed pitching this season. Against lefties, the Marlins sit dead last with a 29.6% strikeout rate and a collective WRC+ that sits 32% below average. Miami’s active roster has just a .102 ISO and a 2.11% home run rate against southpaws this season, the 27th and 23rd ranked marks in the split. Wood is more than capable of pitching through this lineup several times while racking up a fair number of strikeouts. The southpaw has a 23.7% strikeout rate over 43 innings this year and he was sharp last season with a 26% rate over 138.2 in 26 starts. Wood posted a 3.44 xFIP with a 12.5% swinging-strike rate and a 2.39% home run rate last year, this season he has a 2.63% home run rate with an improved 3.12 xFIP, though his swinging strikes and his CSW% have both dipped, this year’s swing-and-miss number sits at just 10.6% while the CSW% has dropped from 32.3% to 29.5%. Wood is drawing a 30% popularity projection on the blue site because he costs just $7,400 in the excellent matchup. The Marlins do have several right-handed bats, including Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler, who have historically hit for significant power in the split, but the overall numbers are strongly in Wood’s favor, even if the leverage situation looks ugly. Wood’s popularity has him as the most negatively leveraged pitcher on the FanDuel slate. In the meantime, Alcantara tops the board on the other side of the same game. The Marlins’ righty ace sits at a lower raw ownership projection than the second or third-ranked starters on the board, and he is at a far better leverage score of just -3.4. Wood’s leverage is at a -21.1, to put the difference in perspective. Alcantara has been excellent this season, he has a 24% strikeout rate with a 3.67 xFIP and a 1.00 WHIP while inducing a 13.8% swinging-strike rate and he has limited hitters to a 1.53% home run rate. Alcantara has yielded a 35.5% hard-hit percentage with a 4.7% barrel rate this season, he has been very good at limiting opposing power and run creation, as evidenced by the 2.00 ERA that sits more than 1.5 runs below his xFIP. Alcantara is expensive at $11,000, but he is worth the investment on the blue site, even against a good Giants lineup that only strikes out 20% of the time against righties. Alcantara is popular, but pushing to the field’s exposure level or even slightly above would not be a mistake given the low raw ownership total.
Padres starter Sean Manaea is the top-ranked option who exists on both sites, but he is a very different play from place to place. The veteran lefty has a 26.4% strikeout rate with a 3.58 xFIP and a 1.11 WHIP while inducing an excellent 13.5% swinging-strike rate this season. Despite a walk rate that has increased from 5.4% to 8.4% this season, Manaea has lowered his WHIP from 1.23 to 1.11 over the first 56 innings of his season. In nine starts, the lefty has yielded a 3.52% home run rate on a 41.9% hard-hit percentage while allowing an 8.8% barrel rate, so some premium contact is possible. Milwaukee’s active roster has a 25th-ranked .114 ISO and a 2.37% home run rate that sits 19th in the split against southpaws. They miss Hunter Renfroe in this situation, who is set to return over the weekend but will not make it back for this spot. The active Brewers have also struck out at a 23.1% rate that ranks 22nd against lefties, and their WRC+ sits 28% below average, ranking them ahead of only the Marlins in the split against lefties. Manaea appears to be aligned for a good shot at a high strikeout total while chasing the win and quality start bonuses on FanDuel, where he will be in roughly one out of every four lineups as the second-most negatively leveraged option on the board. The southpaw is projected for a 47.8% ownership share on the DraftKings slate, he is highly relevant and should be played at an aggressive rate on the DraftKings slate, but getting away from a -12.9 leverage score with at least a handful of shares in favor of even flawed options at positive leverage may be a good approach.
Left-handed rookie Matthew Liberatore will be making the third start of his Major League career. Over his first two outings, Liberatore has completed 9.2 innings while striking out 20.5% and walking hitters at an 11.4% clip. He has a 4.88 xFIP with a 1.45 WHIP in the tiny sample, and he has induced just a 4.4% swinging strike rate at this level. Liberatore is projected for a huge 38.7% ownership share on the DraftKings slate, he falls to a less relevant 11.7% for $8,000 on FanDuel, where his -3.7 leverage score is only favorable when compared to his -10.9 mark on DraftKings. Liberatore is an advanced prospect who has reached the Show at age-22, he was a first-round pick by the Rays in 2018 and he has been pitching well during his rise through the minors. In seven starts at triple-A this year, Liberatore had a 3.83 ERA and a 3.68 xFIP with a 28.4% strikeout rate. If he can find that form, he may deliver for the over-extended public, but the more interesting consideration may be in drawing shares of Cubs stacks while undercutting Liberatore by a fair amount. Chicago’s active roster has been good against lefties this year. While the team strikes out at a 23.4% rate, the 23rd ranked mark in the split, they have a .174 ISO that sits 10th and a 3.30% home run rate that ranks 11th, and they have created runs 16% better than average in the split. Liberatore needs to reach a strikeout ceiling in this game for him to provide enough relevance, even for the discounted prices, there are other inexpensive options like Jordan Lyles or Keegan Thompson, or even the Coors Field pitchers, on the board who can fill that role, though spending up at SP2 might be a smart approach on the two-pitcher site.
On both sites, Tony Gonsolin is the prime target for leverage at a fairly high price, while maintaining strong probability marks. Gonsolin checks in at a 7.7 leverage score and just 20% popularity on DraftKings, where he ranks third by his probability of success, with a rate that is nearly identical to second-ranked Liberatore. Gonsolin is facing a good Mets lineup that has just a 17.9% strikeout rate against righties this season while creating runs 30% better than average, he is in no way safe in this spot, but there is upside at the available leverage. The Dodgers righty has a solid 25.3% strikeout rate over 45 innings this season, he posted a 27.2% mark in 55.2 innings over 13 starts last year, but he has been better overall this season. Gonsolin has allowed just a 1.72% home run rate and he has a sharp 3.51 xFIP with a 0.93 WHIP. At $9,100 on DraftKings and $9,800 on FanDuel, Gonsolin is getting left behind by the field, even in a good matchup, he has the potential to deliver a slate-relevant MLB DFS score on both sites. The hefty price on FanDuel has the pitcher projected for just 2.4% popularity despite ranking fifth on the probability board. Gonsolin makes a good target for additional shares industrywide.
Coors Field
The top two stacks on the board on both sites are playing at Coors Field with significantly different ownership projections. The loaded Braves offense will be facing lefty Austin Gomber, who has struck out just 17.9% of hitters while pitching to a 3.99 xFIP and a 3.06% home run rate. The Rockies draw Atlanta right-hander Ian Anderson, who checks in at a similar 17.6% strikeout rate with a 4.50 xFIP and a 2.94% home run rate. Neither pitcher is bad, both come at extremely low ownership and fair prices on both sites. Gomber is the sneakiest option on DraftKings, where he costs just $5,900 in a plus strikeout matchup, but he is a low-end pitcher who should only be included by those who are not risk averse. The bats are the better play, which is almost always true in Coors Field, but the Braves are one of the more popular team stacks in recent memory. Atlanta is pulling in a gargantuan 31.5% ownership share on DraftKings and a 23.9% mark on FanDuel. In a vacuum, Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Matt Olson are all excellent bats who have a fantastic chance of producing high MLB DFS scores tonight, but each of those hitters is projected for 28% ownership or more, with Ozuna landing at that rate of exposure and Acuna topping the list at 39%. The ownership situation is essentially identical on FanDuel but frees up slightly more on Olson, who checks in at just a 13.6% ownership share. The catchers in the lineup and outfielder Adam Duvall are lower-owned, but still in the mid-20% range on DraftKings, the Braves are very difficult to roster in this situation despite the obvious upside, undercutting the field is recommended.
On the other side of the game, the Rockies land at low ownership from site to site. Despite playing in a very similar matchup in the same ballpark, the home team will be owned at a third of the popularity of their opponent. The Rockies come at fairly low prices and less than 10% popularity for nearly every bat. Charlie Blackmon, Yonathan Daza, C.J. Cron and Ryan McMahon are prime targets in this lineup, and any of Connor Joe, Brendan Rodgers, or Samuel Hilliard can be added to round-out stacks or differentiate lineups. The Rockies are positively leveraged on the FanDuel slate and efficiently owned on DraftKings, they are the favored target for individual bats and stacks in the Coors Field game on both MLB DFS sites, despite the better top-to-bottom talent on the other side of the game.
Blue Site Special
The game between the Nationals and Reds checks in at a heavy 10-run total and is only available on the FanDuel slate. While neither lineup is among the best in baseball, both teams rank highly on the Top Stacks tool for their matchups against lousy pitching. The Nationals are starting young Joan Adon, who has a 17% strikeout rate and a 5.22 xFIP over 47.1 innings in 10 starts this season. On the other side, Reds starter Graham Ashcraft has just an 8.9% strikeout rate in his 10.2 innings so far. The righty has allowed no home runs, but he has struck out just 8.9% of hitters and has induced just a 4.8% swinging-strike rate. Ashcraft is a fully stretched-out starter, he threw 92 pitches in his last outing, he is simply not generating any swing-and-miss at the Major League level. The confluence of circumstances between the ballpark conditions in Cincinnati strongly favoring hitting, and the gas cans on the mound on both sides has the Reds ranked third on the FanDuel board with the Nationals immediately behind them. The Reds are carrying negative leverage and heavy popularity, the Nationals are less popular and land closer to efficient ownership at just a -1.0 leverage score. The Washington lineup features Juan Soto, one of the best hitters in baseball, and Nelson Cruz, who is slowly coming back to life this season. The duo is better than anyone on the Reds, with the possible exception of the Cruz against Joey Votto matchup, but with significantly less popularity from top to bottom the Nationals are the better stack to target. Cesar Hernandez can provide correlated scoring though not much else from the top of the lineup and projected two-hitter Keibert Ruiz is an interesting bat who slots in at the under-utilized catcher position on FanDuel. Ruiz has hit one home run while creating runs at league average and slashing .273/.335/.371 this year, he is a good option to put the ball in play with his 9.4% strikeout rate this season. Soto and Cruz follow that pair and Josh Bell will add another quality bat to the potential stack after them. Yadiel Hernandez is the last truly appealing bat in the stack, the veteran of many seasons in Cuba, Hernandez is making the most of a regular role, he has four home runs in 148 plate appearances while creating runs 14% better than average and slashing .285/.331/.438 this season.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are interesting once again today. The team faces highly popular southpaw Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed plenty of contact while pitching to a 4.88 xFIP so far in his 9.2 innings. Liberatore’s nearly 40% ownership on DraftKings and 12% popularity on FanDuel are targetable with the Cubs right-handed power bats. Christopher Morel is off to a productive start over 67 plate appearances but he will be owned at just 1% for $3,300 on FanDuel and at 6.1% for $3,700 across town. On the catchers-required site, Willson Contreras is drawing a 12.5% ownership mark but he comes in at just 3% on the blue site. Patrick Wisdom and Frank Schwindel add major power to the middle of the Cubs lineup, Wisdom has mashed 11 home runs with a .261 ISO so far this season. Nico Hoerner is playable in the infield and Ian Happ is an under-owned target on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The lineup’s quality dwindles around the bottom-third, though Clint Frazier could be an interesting low-cost no-popularity pick from late in the batting order.
Los Angeles Dodgers
With so many teams projected for inflated ownership from site to site, it is surprising to see the Dodgers stack slip to single-digit popularity in a matchup against Taijuan Walker. The Mets’ righty has struck out just 13.2% of opposing hitters in his 35 innings this season while walking 8.3% and pitching to a 4.50 xFIP. Walker has a 2.83 ERA, somehow, and he has allowed just a 1.39% home run rate, but he is facing an outrageously good lineup that is going significantly under-owned on this slate.
Mookie Betts is one of baseball’s very best. The leadoff man broke the National League record for extra-base hits in the month of May over the last few weeks, a mark that had stood at 21 since being set by Jackie Robinson in 1949. Betts managed 22 extra base hits, including a dozen home runs, in his outstanding month. The outfielder costs $5,800 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel, he will be owned around 12% on both sites and he should definitely be more popular in this matchup. Betts is slashing .306/.392/.617 with a ridiculous .311 ISO and 16 home runs while creating runs 82% better than average, put him in Dodgers stacks.
First baseman Freddie Freeman has been good so far this season, despite a minor power outage. The All-Star has hit just four home runs in his 225 plate appearances, but he is slashing a superb .295/.387/.466 while creating runs 41% better than average. Freeman strikes out at just a 12.9% rate, the second of four hitters who strike out below 20% to start the batting order for Los Angeles. Freeman has a 42.8% hard-hit percentage and a 10.8% barrel rate. The home runs are coming, and he is far too unpopular for his discounted prices.
Shortstop Trea Turner is another of the best players in the game at his position, and overall. Turner is slashing .297/.355/.462 while creating runs 31% better than average. The excellent infielder has a 49.1% hard-hit percentage with just a 6.3% barrel rate, he hit 28 home runs and stole 32 bases last year, so there is additional power beyond the five home runs he has hit to this point in 2022. Turner has already stolen 10 bases; he has a good chance to eclipse last year’s total while stacking up MLB DFS points all season.
Catcher Will Smith is an excellent option for leverage on the FanDuel slate most nights. The backstop has an excellent bat, and he is always under-utilized on the blue site. Smith costs $5,100 and checks in at 11.4% popularity where the position is needed, but just 7.7% where it is not. Smith has hit five home runs while creating runs 10% better than average and he hit 25 home runs with a .237 ISO and a 130 WRC+ last year.
Young Edwin Rios is rapidly establishing a reputation as a destroyer of baseballs. The corner infielder has third base eligibility on DraftKings for just $3,900 at 4.6% popularity, he adds first base to his positioning on FanDuel, with a price that drops to just $2,600 while remaining below a 10% ownership projection. The prices and lack of popularity come in spite of an excellent stat line over 89 plate appearances so far. Rios has hit seven home runs and he has a .265 ISO while creating runs 29% better than average. He has a 38.3% hard-hit percentage with an outstanding 14.9% barrel rate. The young slugger’s one downside for DFS is that he strikes out at a 40.4% clip so far, he is an all-or-nothing power option who is not popular enough around the industry.
Justin Turner is a scuffling veteran who is slashing just .228/.289/.386 this season. Despite the struggles, Turner starts a run of low-owned playable bats at affordable prices in the bottom third of this lineup. Turner strikes out at just an 18.7% rate; he will put the ball in play with regularity and he stands a good chance at turning around his season starting tonight.
Outfielder and former MVP Cody Bellinger has hit five home runs with a .182 ISO while creating runs 4% worse than average, he has not yet made it back to his formerly stellar production. There are glimpses of the hitter that once was, however, with a 41.8% hard-hit percentage and a 9.1% barrel rate, Bellinger is at least making quality contact. Even with his 30.4% strikeout rate the outfielder can be played at low prices and popularity.
Chris Taylor has just outfield eligibility on both sites at this point in the season, but he is very unpopular while remaining affordable. Taylor is slashing .261/.346/.453 with five home runs while creating runs 25% better than average, he is a very good option from anywhere in the Dodgers lineup on both sites tonight.
Lefty utility man Gavin Lux is a $3,900 bat with second base and outfield eligibility on DraftKings, he costs $2,500 with the same positioning on the blue site. Lux has been expected to produce for a while now, the young hitter has 160 plate appearances this year, but he has managed just one home run and three stolen bases. Even with the lack of individual production, Lux has been good for correlated scoring, he is slashing .271/.356/.350 and creating runs 8% better than average this year, making him a potentially underrated choice from the bottom of the projected lineup.
The Dodgers are universally under-owned, and the lineup can be rostered from top to bottom.
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