Monday, Sept. 26, brings a short four-game featured slate with an early lock time at 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/26)
Primary Stack:
Atlanta Braves at RHP Cory Abbott — 5.7 implied runs
Atlanta is only 1.5 games behind New York in the National League East and these two teams will be battling down to the wire to stay out of the Wild Card scrum. Even without Ozzie Albies, this offense is loaded from top to bottom and has several key reserves.
Corey Abbott has a 10.6% walk rate over his last 230 batters faced while allowing a .311 ISO to lefties and a .260 ISO to same-handed hitters. The top six hitters in the lineup can be rostered in a variety of ways to help minimize overlap with the field, while still providing a formidable baseline projection.
Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Dansby Swanson are the core four to target with rookie Michael Harris II continuing to move up in the batting order and the catcher being our differentiation options. Atlanta has the luxury of two outstanding hitters who fill the backstop position in Travis d’Arnaud and William Contreras. From the bottom-third of the lineup, some combination of veterans Eddie Rosario and Robbie Grossman, along with rookie Vaughn Grissom, are likely to see their names on the lineup card and they are viable DFS options as well on the abbreviated slate.
Secondary Stack:
Baltimore Orioles at RHP Connor Seabold — 4.6 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool has been caught up in the Baltimore Orioles’ late-season surge and is hoping that they can catch either the Mariners or Rays in the Wild Card chase, though they will need to win most of their remaining games.
That said, tonight they are playing against the Red Sox, who have been eliminated from the postseason and have been content to give their regulars days off over the last week or so. Connor Seabold has been a disaster across five career starts in The Show with a 9.78 ERA, 2.12 WHIP and five home runs allowed in just 19.1 innings.
The top half of the Baltimore lineup has provided elite production against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Of course, rookies Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have only participated this year, but both have a .214 ISO against righties. Veteran Cedric Mullins has plenty of pop for a leadoff hitter, particularly when he has the platoon advantage. Then we get veteran switch-hitter Anthony Santander and the improving Ryan Mountcastle, who also have extra-base hit upside. Gamers may not realize just how much the Red Sox are ready to have this season end and they could overlook this stack, well, as much as any team can fall under the radar on a four-game slate.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target:
RHP Roansy Contreras vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $8,200
Tonight is a compressed four-game slate with all of the action getting underway between 6:35 and 7:10 p.m. ET. While Luis Severino and Kevin Gausman are the most “talented” options on the docket, they are also facing each other and the respective offensive juggernauts of the Yankees and Blue Jays.
Roansy Contreras has had a solid season and looks like he should be a fixture in the Pittsburgh rotation for the next few years. Tonight he gets a terrific matchup against Cincinnati, who has seen their already poor offense continue to be depleted by injuries.
Contreras has logged the second most innings of his career and the most since 2019 so we should not expect more than 80-85 pitches tonight and an unofficial hard cap of 90 pitches or the end of the fifth inning. This will be the third time that the 22-year-old has faced the Reds and he has held serve through the first two tilts with 10 strikeouts and just two earned runs allowed over 10 innings.
Secondary Pitching Target:
RHP Bryce Elder at Washington Nationals — 3.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $8,900
This will be the third time Bryce Elder has squared off against the Nationals. The rookie took care of business in this same matchup five days ago, holding Washington to just one run over 5.2 innings while allowing half a dozen base runners and recording as many strikeouts.
The Nationals are just 4-10 in their last 14 games and are plating a meager 3.2 runners per game in this stretch. This should be no surprise as their “best” hitter is the well-traveled Luke Voit, while their most “productive” hitter is 30-year-old rookie Joey Meneses. Advantage Atlanta.
Additional Opportunities
Contreras has a 4.5 strikeout prop in his matchup with Cincinnati tonight and we can double down by using him in our DFS lineups and also targeting him in the player prop market. The Stokastic MLB DFS projections are forecasting 5.2 strikeouts and a 59% win probability. This is a milestone that Contreras has reached in four of his last six starts and with the current +115 moneyline, this wager has a solid 25% expected return on investment or xROI.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Kevin Gausman vs. New York Yankees (Main)
- RHP Luis Severino at Toronto Blue Jays (Main)
- RHP Jordan Lyles at Boston Red Sox (Main SP2)
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Other Hitting Options
- Kyle Farmer at RHP Roansy Contreras (Main)
- Joey Meneses vs. RHP Bryce Elder (Main)
- Josh Donaldson at RHP Kevin Gausman (Main)
- Rafael Devers vs. RHP Jordan Lyles (Main)
- Cedric Mullins at RHP Connor Seabold (Main)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Pittsburgh has a slight chance of light rain, though there is not much risk more than a delay.
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