Tuesday, Sept. 20, keeps the week rolling along with a spectacular 11-game main slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/20)
Main Slate Stack:
Atlanta Braves vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.7 implied runs
It is going to be a warm evening in Atlanta with game time temperatures in the mid-80s and a light breeze out to right field. Patrick Corbin somehow survived in two of his last three starts, limiting the Mets and Orioles to just two combined earned runs across 13 innings. Of course sandwiched in between these outings was a dumpster fire of a performance against the Phillies where the erstwhile ace suffered 12 hits, giving up five earned runs and allowing two home runs. In three previous starts against Atlanta, Corbin has allowed a 9.88 ERA, 2.42 WHIP and a trio of round-trippers in 13.2 innings.
Austin Riley has become one of the best in the game against lefties, boasting a .400 wOBA and .267 ISO over the last two seasons. Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson and William Contreras are also elite when holding the platoon-advantage with each player carrying a .194 ISO or better. Finally, we get the perfect situation for Matt Olson, who is continually overlooked by gamers in same-handed matchups. Over his last 432 plate appearances against fellow lefties, Olson has a .367 wOBA and a .274 ISO, which is actually better than his production against right-handed hurlers in the same timeframe.
Late Slate Stack:
Seattle Mariners at LHP JP Sears — 4.2 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has turned notifications on to be reminded of any time JP Sears is drawing a start. The 26-year-old rookie spent three years as a starting pitcher for The Citadel before being selected in the 11th round of the 2017 MLB Draft. In his first two seasons in the minors, he never made it above Single-A and then the pandemic scrapped the 2020 MiLB season.
Last year Sears worked his way up to Triple-A, but it was more a function to see if he could handle it, rather than earning his way up the ladder. Sears came over from the Yankees as part of the Frankie Montas trade, but he was not a key piece of the deal.
Over his last four outings, Sears has lasted only 18 innings while issuing seven walks, allowing six home runs and recording only 13 strikeouts. This has resulted in an 8.00 ERA, which is not too far off of his 7.33 FIP, which indicates he has pretty much earned this disastrous stat line and it is not due to bad luck.
Seattle is able to put out a solid lineup against southpaws. Rookie Julio Rodriguez has been amazing this year and the Mariners have already inked him to a 12-year, $209 million contract to keep him in the fold. Mitch Haniger has been dealing with a myriad of injuries, but he has a long track record of success against opposite-handed hurlers.
Dylan Moore and switch-hitting Sam Haggerty are excellent salary savers on both the main and late slates. It is unfortunate that Eugenio Suarez (fractured finger) is on the injured list, but that should give Ty France and Carlos Santana a boost in the batting order.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target:
RHP Luis Castillo at Oakland Athletics — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $9,700
Since being acquired by Seattle earlier this summer, Luis Castillo has been impressive in eight starts for his new team. During this stretch he has logged 49.1 innings with a 2.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and a stellar 13.5 strikeouts per nine innings rate.
Oakland has scored the second-fewest runs in the league this season and are currently in a 4-13 skid. The Athletics have been a bottom-five team for most of the season against right-handed pitching and aside from Sean Murphy and Seth Brown, there are no other imposing hitters to worry about.
Primary Pitching Target:
RHP Charlie Morton vs. Washington Nationals — 3.1 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $9,200
Dylan Cease is also an excellent option against Cleveland. However, the salary discount received by turning to Charlie Morton can be quite helpful in gaining access to the hitters participating in the Coors Field Extravaganza tonight. The current projected run total in that game is pressing 12 and the mercury is likely to be touching 90 degrees during first pitch.
Back to Morton, he has a cherry matchup against Washington. The 38-year-old is coming off a stretch that makes it seem like he is 10 years younger. In his last 10 starts, the venerable veteran has tallied a 3.68 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a whopping 73 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. The Nationals have been struggling all season, but even more so after trading away Juan Soto and Josh Bell. Their best hitters right now are journeyman Luke Voit and 30-year-old rookie Joey Meneses. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 26.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, which plays into the strength of Morton.
Additional Opportunities
Currently, Shane McClanahan has a 4.5 over/under strikeout prop in his matchup with the the Astros. Houston is a daunting lineup and while we do not want to tangle with them in DFS, we definitely can look at this matchup for a sports wager. The Stokastic projections are forecasting 5.9 strikeouts and a 65% win probability. There is a somewhat heavy -148 moneyline on this over, so pairing this with another reasonably attainable wager as part of a parlay can help increase the payout upside.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Christian Javier at Tampa Bay Rays (Early)
- RHP Pablo Lopez vs. Chicago Cubs (Early)
- RHP Dylan Cease vs. Cleveland Guardians (Main)
- LHP Nestor Cortes vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Main)
- LHP Tyler Anderson vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Late)
Latest MLB DFS Content
- MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Live Before Lock (September 29)
- MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1s Carlos Rodon and Nick Pivetta Look Strong Tonight (September 29)
- MLB DFS Picks Today: DraftKings Stacks, HR Predictions & Weather (September 29)
- MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Main Slate DraftKings Fantasy Baseball Picks | Ronald Acuna (September 29)
- MLB DFS Cheat Sheet: Main Slate FanDuel Fantasy Baseball Picks | Matt Olson (September 29)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Other Hitting Options
- Bryce Harper vs. RHP Ross Stripling (Early)
- Coors Field Extravaganza (Both sides, all slates)
- Ryan Mountcastle vs. LHP Joey Wentz (Main)
- Josh Donaldson vs. RHP Luis Ortiz (Main)
- Freddie Freeman vs. RHP Drey Jameson (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
It is going to be warmer than usual at a few venues, which should give a boost to offenses. It is going to be in the upper-80s in Atlanta and Colorado, with Kansas City looking at temperatures in the low-90s.
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![College football Week 5 continues with a four-game Friday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let's get into the CFB Week 5 DFS picks and projections for Friday, Sept. 29. CFB Week 5 DFS Picks and Projections | Friday, Sept. 29 Quarterback Emory Jones ($6,900): The top price-adjusted quarterback on the slate, Emory Jones, and the Cincinnati Bearcats are 2-point favorites over BYU in a game with a 48 total. Jones averages 242.5 passing yards per game on 31 attempts. He also has elite mobility, with 32 designed attempts through four games. Hank Bachmeier ($5,800): Hank Bachmeier should have a better chance to play this game after being available "in case of emergency" last week. Louisiana Tech ranks 63rd in pace and passes 55.6% of the time. This makes whoever starts at quarterback a strong value. Jack Turner played well in place of Bachmeier last week and actually looks to provide decent mobility. If Bachmeier misses, Turner is an easy swap option. Jack Plummer ($8,500): On a relatively weak quarterback slate, Jack Plummer stands out between the pair of expensive options. Louisville comes in as a 3-point favorite over North Carolina State in a game with a 55.5 total. Plummer has averaged 280 passing yards per game and is hyper-efficient. The North Carolina State defense projects to provide little resistance, allowing 8.3 yards per attempt. Plummer also has 13 designed rush attempts this year, which helps prevent the negative rushing stats from early in his career. the_ad id="340345"] Running Back Jawhar Jordan ($7,000): Louisville has begun to feature Jawhar Jordan at the expense of Isaac Guerendo and Maurice Turner. Jordan has 18 carries in back-to-back games and four targets in that span. His route rate has also eclipsed 50% in those two games. Jacob Fields ($3,700): Louisiana Tech is dealing with injuries to Keith Willis Jr., Charvis Thornton and Tyre Shelton. Marquis Crosby has also yet to play this year. If this injury situation breaks right, Jacob Fields should lead a committee also featuring Keldric Moody. This is a pure late-news situation. L.J. Martin ($5,100): Corey Kiner ($4,700): Ryan Montgomery left last week's game with an injury, allowing Corey Kiner to receiver more work. He finished with 10 carries and three targets in a decisive loss to Oklahoma. His workload stands to increase in more competitive games. Watch Montgomery's status ahead of kickoff. Jaylon Glover ($5,000): Utah already lost Micah Bernard for the year, and Ja'Quinden Jackson enters this game with the questionable tag. If out, Jaylon Glover projects to handle a feature back workload. Last week he saw 25 carries and one target. Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s' college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now! Wide Receiver Isaac Rex ($4,700): Despite coming in as a slight underdog, BYU still ranks 58th in pace and passes 57.4% of the time. Tight end Isaac Rex not only paces the team in targets (34), but he has the best route rate of the group as well. Smoke Harris ($6,800): One of the premier receivers on the slate, Smoke Harris averages 73.4 receiving yards per game on a 26.9% target share. In the Louisiana Tech offense this equates to 8.6 targets per game. Braden Smith ($4,200): Braden Smith ranks second on Cincinnati with 22 targets this year, averaging 49.5 yards per game. He projects as one of the top price-adjusted receivers on the slate. Jamari Thrash ($6,600):  Jamari Thrash is one of the most explosive receivers in college football, averaging 100 yards per game behind a 25.2% target share. With little salary restrictions on this slate, Thrash should be a priority.
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