Saturday Sept. 3, sees MLB once again ceding the afternoon airwaves to college football. This means we have six-game early evening appetizer leading into a nine-game main slate at the usual 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/3)
Main Slate: New York Mets vs. LHP Patrick Corbin — 4.9 implied runs
Saturday brings Dickensian twist to the MLB slate with a dichotomy of Corbins. Corbin Burnes is in “The Best of Times” corner with Patrick Corbin in “The Worst of Times” corner. On the positive side for Washington, Corbin continues to gamely take the mound every five or so days. The downside of course is that the 33-year-old southpaw has two more seasons and nearly $60 million remaining on his contract.
Last year, Corbin allowed the second most home runs in the league and despite a quiet start to the season, he has been surging towards the top of that dubious leaderboard over the last few months. In his last 23 starts, Washington’s albatross contract holder has made 19 starts with a 6.73 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP with nine inning rates of 7.8 strikeouts and 2.2 home runs. In seven of these appearances he has allowed multiple longballs.
In his last 1,024 lefty-righty matchups, Corbin has been knocked around for a 0.387 wOBA and .239 ISO. The Mets have a malleable offense with multiple switch-hitters and a deep bench that allows them to configure things so they have a baseline platoon advantage against pitchers of either-handedness. Pete Alonso, Eduardo Escobar, Francisco Lindor, Mark Canha and Starling Marte all have sustained career success against southpaws. That is the core to build around with catcher James McCann likely behind the plate and former Giant Darin Ruf in the heart of the order, though he is a pinch hit risk if a right-handed reliever enters the fray.
Brandon Nimmo has continued to hit leadoff, even in lefty-lefty matchups, so he is also a solid option. There will be many ways to stack the Mets tonight, so the savvy gamer should not have to worry about their expected popularity as highlighted by the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool.
Late Slate: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Sean Manaea — 5.2 implied runs
August was a rough month for Sean Manaea as he suffered a 7.88 ERA while lasting only 24 innings, spread across five starts. This will be the third time that the former Oakland ace has battled the Dodgers and they have given no quarter while plating 15 runs in just 8.1 innings. Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Will Smith, Chris Taylor and Justin Turner should be the right-handed batsmen comprising the top of the lineup along with Freddie Freeman, who excels in same-handed matchups. Trayce Thompson can be used as a salary-saving option from the bottom of the order and even Austin Barnes is viable from the nine-hole as part of a wraparound stack if he draws catching duty.
Early Slate: Kansas City Royals at RHP Michael Pineda — 4.3 implied runs
Veteran Michael Pineda is back with Detroit after being banished to Triple-A Toledo for a second time this season. Prior to his demotion, in five July starts he lasted just 20.1 innings with a 7.52 ERA courtesy of an obscene 3.1 home runs per nine innings. Of course, striking out barely one hitter every other inning did him no favors either.
Kansas City dealt away Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield earlier this summer to help facilitate a rebuilding operation. Though the backend of its batting order is filled with easy outs, it is letting their its talent gain valuable experience. Bobby Witt Jr. and M.J. Melendez have been lineup fixtures for a couple of months and they have held their own. Veterans Hunter Dozier and Michael A. Taylor are around to provide a steadying presence and, of course, so is Salvador Perez when he is healthy.
Nick Pratto has been outstanding in limited action and he should continue to grow into his power along with Vinnie Pasquantio (shoulder), who is close to a return. This gives gamers options across a myriad of positions while also not gobbling up too much salary cap.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Max Scherzer vs. Washington Nationals — 5.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $11,200
Tonight, Max Scherzer will be taking on one of his former squads, though there has been quite the roster churn since he last pitched for Washington just over a year ago. In his last 11 games after an injury layoff, the 38-year-old has been sublime with a 2.10 ERA, 2.14 FIP and a tick shy of 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Across 73 frames, he has just 11 walks and only four home runs.
The current Nationals roster, sans Juan Soto and Josh Bell, has been a disaster this season with an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is a bottom-five mark. They are right around league average with a 22.2% strikeout rate, but their .126 ISO is pitiful. The Mets are only three games up on Atlanta for the National League East lead, which bodes well for Scherzer seeing at least half a dozen innings and 90 pitches. In his last six games, he has thrown 98 or more pitches on five occasions.
Secondary Target: RHP Dylan Cease vs. Minnesota Twins — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $11,200
Injuries have been a theme all season for Minnesota with Byron Buxton, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Miguel Sano all currently on the injured list and Jorge Polanco is dealing with a knee issue. On the flipside, Dylan Cease has been dealing all season and he currently ranks third with a 2.27 ERA and first with 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The top half of the Twins lineup still has competent hitters, however the back half is filled with below replacement level bats. There is not much else to add other than consider Cease as your SP2 in “cash” game lineups.
Wild Card Target: LHP Robbie Ray at Cleveland Guardians — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,700
In his five August starts, Robbie Ray has been locked in leading Seattle to four victories with a 1.64 ERA, an 0.91 WHIP with only three home runs allowed while striking out 41 batters in 33 innings. Of course, he did face the Angels twice and the Nationals once, though the other two games were against the Yankees and in his last start he battled tonight’s opponent in the Guardians.
On the season, Cleveland has a 90 wRC+ against southpaws, which means they are creating runs 10% less efficiently than league average. While that is not horrible, they also do not have an overly threating lineup against lefties as most of their better hitters lose the platoon advantage in this scenario. To their credit, the Guardians projected lineup has a sub-20% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons, however, they also have very little power.
Ray has a 30.6% strikeout rate in the same timeframe and while rolling with the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is always an adventure, the scales are definitely tipped in his favor. Particularly if his popularity does not gain much traction with the field.
Additional Opportunities
Tyler Mahle is working his way back from a shoulder issue that has kept him on the shelf the last two weeks. After a 30-pitch bullpen session, Minnesota has elected to not send him out on a rehabilitation assignment. That makes his early line of 5.5 strikeouts (currently only on FanDuel) seem rather aggressive and the Stokastic projections agree, forecasting only 3.9 whiffs for the veteran right-hander against the White Sox. This gives him a whopping 78% likelihood of failing to reach the six strikeouts needed for the over, while featuring a 30% xROI.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- LHP Nick Lodolo vs. Colorado Rockies (Early)
- RHP Corbin Burnes at Arizona (Main)
- RHP Adam Wainwright vs. Chicago Cubs (Main SP2)
- RHP Jake Odorizzi vs. Miami Marlins (Main SP2)
- RHP Luis H. Garcia at Los Angeles Angels (Main, Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Javier Baez vs. RHP Jonathan Heasley (Early)
- Seth Brown at RHP Austin Voth (Main)
- Cedric Mullin vs. RHP Adam Oller (Main)
- Paul Goldschmidt vs. LHP Drew Smyly (Main)
- Manny Machado at LHP Julio Urias (Late)
Latest MLB DFS Content
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- MLB DFS: Stokastic’s Tom Kennedy With TWO DraftKings MLB Wins in One Night | How the Sims Helped Him Out
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- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Keep an eye on the weather in the Midwest with Cincinnati looking to be the matchup with the biggest risk. Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit are worth monitoring, though it looks like these venues should mostly avoid any in-game precipitation risk.
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