Sunday, July 24, wraps up the weekend with a nine-game featured slate with the usual 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/24)
Main Slate: Atlanta Braves vs. LHP Reid Detmers — 5.3 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, acknowledges that rookie Reid Detmer authored a no-hitter in his sixth ever appearance in The Show and it just does not care. In the eight games since that masterpiece (which featured just one walk, but only two strikeouts), the 23-year-old southpaw has allowed two home runs in four different starts. Six of those outings included multiple walks and he had four or fewer strikeouts in half of these games.
Fortunately the DraftKings salary algorithm has similar beliefs as the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool, and has taken the initiative to saddle most of the key Atlanta hitters with salaries well into the $5,000s. This will help keep their popularity in check in what is a tremendous matchup. The temperatures for this early afternoon game should be cresting into the low-90s which will give an added boost to the offenses.
Five of the projected top six hitters in the Atlanta lineup boast a .220 ISO or better against southpaws dating back to the start of last season. Collectively this group has a walk rate just over 10% while striking out at a below average rate. At some point Matt Olson is going to get a day off this season, but as long as his name is on the lineup card, get him on your DFS rosters, even in this lefty/lefty matchup.
Load up on Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson, Travis d’Arnaud and of course Olson in this cherry matchup on Sunday. If William Contreras finds himself in the lineup, use the least popular backstop option between the Venezuelan and d’Arnaud for differentiation on DraftKings. If both are in the lineup, by all means double down on FanDuel where the utility position is our friend.
Mid-Afternoon Slate: Milwaukee Brewers vs. RHP Chad Kuhl — 5.3 implied runs
It is hard to besmirch the good name of Chad Michael Kuhl who showed flashes of tremendous talent earlier in his career when he was with Pittsburgh. The Delaware native ended up pitching for three seasons with the University of Delaware before hearing his named called in the ninth round of the 2013 MLB Draft. Sadly like so many other pitchers, Kuhl ended up needing Tommy John surgery and he has not been able to recapture any magic he displayed prior to that procedure.
Colorado should be happy with the accomplishments of Kuhl this season as he is besting his career averages across the board. The soon to be 30-year-old has performed well on his one-year, $3,000,000 deal – though we should still target him both home and abroad from a DFS perspective.
While the Brew Crew started slowly on Saturday, they finally found their stride in the fourth inning and in a nine out span rolled up eight runs against a pair of right-handed Rocky pitchers. In a “Baseball being baseball” moment, these crooked numbers were the results of exactly two extra base hits.
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool would like us to focus on the batters swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate with Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong and Christian Yelich being the trio to target as standouts at their respective positions. Omar Narvaez is also a decent catcher option if he is behind the plate on Sunday. The only downside to this stack is that they are likely to be separated by right-handed teammates, so we lose some of the synergy, since for all his faults, Kuhl is still steady against same-handed batsmen.
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Late Slate: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Erick Fedde — 5.0 implied runs
The Chase Field roof is naturally scheduled to be closed for this 1:10 p.m. local start in Arizona. It seems that the Diamondbacks will be going with a semi-bullpen game with Corbin Martin being recalled from Triple-A to replace the recently released Dallas Keuchel. Martin barely cracks the top 20 prospects within the Arizona system and it is hard to be excited for his long-term outlook. The 26-year-old was a second round selection by Houston in the 2017 MLB Draft. He ended up with the Diamondbacks as part of the Zack Greinke trade in 2019. That was also the same season that was cut short by Tommy John surgery.
Though he has labored his way to a 5.10 ERA in the Pacific Coast League, the right-handed hurler does have 9.15 strikeouts per nine innings. Martin is fully stretched out, though it is hard to see him going more than five innings, even against a hapless Washington offense. Normally this would be a spot to target hitters, but the Nationals are so horrible it is difficult to recommend anyone aside from the obvious threesome of Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz.
That brings us back around to the Diamondbacks and their terrific matchup against Erick Fedde. Though he is far from a tomato can, we know exactly what the 29-year-old brings to the table. That would be a marginal 20% strikeout rate with nearly a double digit walk rate, while allowing a .196 ISO to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons.
Arizona is likely to roll out a lineup loaded with lefties and switch-hitters to gain the platoon-advantage over Fedde. Focus on the top half of the order with Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Alek Thomas, Josh Rojas and Dalton Varsho as the concentrated group to target.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers (FREE MONEY: BET $10 TO WIN $200)
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Primary Target: RHP Dylan Cease vs. Cleveland Guardians — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,100
Dylan Cease has been outstanding this season ranking fifth with his 2.15 ERA and second with 150 strikeouts. If he can neutralized Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Andres Gimenez, the 26-year-old ace should be in for a strong fantasy performance. Cease has allowed more than two runs only three times this season and his 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings rate is far and away the best in the league among qualified starters.
Secondary Target: RHP Sonny Gray at Detroit Tigers — 3.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,100 | FanDuel $8,400
There is no doubt that Sonny Gray was a disaster in his three July starts prior to the All-Star Break. In games against the White Sox, Orioles and Rangers, he lasted a combined 13.1 innings with a 9.45 ERA ,while allowing nearly two baserunners per inning. We should give him the benefit of the doubt based on the delightful matchup against Detroit and his 10 appearances prior to this recent dip when he held the opposition to two or fewer runs nine times. The Tigers offense is epically bad against right-handed hurlers and nearly a full standard deviation below the second worst team. Take the savings on DraftKings and employ Gray as an SP2 and consider rolling the dice on FanDuel in the afternoon action. If the weather worsens, then the easy pivot will be to Ian Anderson at a similar salary.
Late Afternoon: LHP Framber Valdez at Seattle Mariners — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,700 | FanDuel $9,800
Through a scheduling quirk, Framber Valdez has made four starts against the Angels and none against the Mariners thus far in the season. That changes this afternoon as the elite groundball artist gets his first crack at the M’s in Seattle. Across his last 1,079 batters faced, the 28-year-old southpaw has a wicked 69.5% groundball rate with an obscene negative 4.9 degree launch angle. Additionally he has just enough strikeout upside to make things interesting for tournaments. Rookie wunderkind Julio Rodriguez is dealing with a sore wrist and may miss a third straight game after his dominating Home Run Derby performance. That is a big blow to the Seattle offense, though it is cushioned a little by the return of Kyle Lewis.
Additional Opportunities
Strikeouts are really not part of the pitching strategy for Alex Cobb who focuses on inducing groundballs and letting his defense do the dirty work. That makes his 4.5 over/under on his strikeout prop an intriguing wager against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 4.0 strikeouts, giving him a 65% probability of failing to surpass the over. While this may seem like a tenuous position to take, keep in mind that the projected Los Angeles lineup has a trailing 18.3% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. Additionally, Cobb has more than four strikeouts in only one of his last six starts and that was five against Milwaukee. There is also a strong chance that Los Angeles can break the game open early which would lead to Cobb hitting the showers before collecting strikeout No. 5 this afternoon.
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Other Pitching Options
- LHP Nestor Cortes at Baltimore Orioles (Main)
- RHP Ian Anderson vs. Los Angeles Angeles (Main SP2)
- LHP Eric Lauer vs. Colorado Rockies (Main, Mid-Afternoon)
- LHP Clayton Kershaw vs. San Francisco Giants (Late)
- LHP Martin Perez at Oakland Athletics (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Bo Bichette at RHP Brayan Bello (Main)
- Shoehei Ohtani at RHP Ian Anderson (Main)
- Giancarlo Stanton at RHP Dean Kremer (Main)
- Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff at RHP Rony Garcia (Main, Mid-Afternoon)
- Kole Calhoun at RHP Paul Blackburn (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
The Midwest is again the trouble spot with Detroit looking to see the highest likelihood of a delay. Kansas City is looking more like spotty showers and nothing to worrisome in the grand scheme of the slate.
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