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MLB DFS Picks Thursday 7/21: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today

Eric MacPherson

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Thursday, July 21, eases everyone back into the MLB grind with split-slate action, including two doubleheaders with a 1:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.


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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/21)

Main Slate: Detroit Tigers at LHP Zach Logue — 3.8 implied runs

There are two doubleheaders today and the various DFS sites are handling each differently. Most are including the Game 1’s as part of an afternoon “main” slate. Regardless of who is starting the earlier game for New York between Jameson Taillon and Jordan Montgomery, look to the hometown Astros as the primary stack.

Of course, finding differentiation on a pair of short slates is going to be difficult; however, we are so conditioned to avoid the Detroit bats, ideally some gamers continue with that philosophy this afternoon. The Tigers are abysmal against right-handed pitching, but they are creating runs right around the league average against southpaws. Though their power is lacking, they also have limited their strikeouts, which has led to more balls in play.

Power has been an issue for rookie Zach Logue, who is back up from Triple-A to make this spot start. In his limited 132 batters faced in The Show, he has a dreadful 6.60 xFIP with a paltry 17.4% strikeout rate and a .260 ISO. Javier Baez is a prime bat to target, followed by catcher Eric Haase and infielders Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario.

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Late Slate: San Francisco Giants at RHP Mitch White — 3.9 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Batters Tool likes several of the San Francisco batsmen at their respective positions from a point-per-dollar perspective. Mitch White has been decent as he is making the move from being a reliever to a starter, though he is far from dominant. Even including his work out of the bullpen, White has a mediocre 23.3% strikeout rate with nearly 80% contact.

Brandon Belt stands out with his eye-popping .293 ISO against opposite-handed hurlers in his last 439 plate appearances. All-Star Joc Pederson and fellow outfielder Mike Yastrzemski should also be able to make good use of the platoon advantage. Building out from this trio, LaMonte Wade and Thairo Estrada can be employed to create a full stack.


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Late Target: LHP Carlos Rodon at Los Angeles Dodgers — 4.7 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500| FanDuel $10,900

Do not let the matchup against Los Angeles dissuade you from rolling with Carlos Rodon tonight. The 29-year-old is posting some of the best results of his career, and he is only a tick below last year’s breakout campaign. This will be the third time that Rodon has squared off against the Dodgers, and in his first two outings he compiled a 1.50 ERA, 0.830 WHIP and 11 strikeouts in a dozen innings. Will he do that again tonight? Well, that is why they play the games, but the point is do not be afraid of this matchup on a short slate.


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Additional Opportunities

Frankie Montas last pitched on July 3, and he has been managing an inflamed shoulder for the last three weeks. Fortunately, he successfully completed an “aggressive” bullpen session and is not expected to have any limitations tonight. That means he can still be targeted with his 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 6.1 strikeouts, giving him a 70% probability of surpassing the over. Prior to his abbreviated outing at the start of the month, Montas had recorded five or more strikeouts in six of nine starts.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Jon Gray at Miami Marlins (Main)
  2. RHP Pablo Lopez vs. Texas Rangers (Main)
  3. RHP Luis H. Garcia vs. New York Yankees (Late)

Other Hitting Options

  1. Jose Altuve vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery (Main)
  2. Ramon Laureano vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (Main)
  3. Anthony Rizzo at RHP Cristian Javier (Main)
  4. Kyle Tucker vs. RHP Jameson Taillon (Late)
  5. Mookie Betts vs. LHP Carlos Rodon (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

There are no precipitation risks for Thursday’s abbreviated action. Do not be afraid to roster a batter or two against your pitchers, particularly on DraftKings and Yahoo.

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Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy baseball articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Stokastic MLB DFS home page.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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