Tuesday, July 12, keeps the MLB DFS fun rolling with a rousing 14-game featured slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel is skipping Game 2 of the White Sox at Guardians doubleheader. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/12)
Main Slate: White Sox at LHP Konnor Pilkington — 4.9 implied runs
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This game is the second of the doubleheader and not available on FanDuel. Looking at the DraftKings version (FanDuel is on the other tabs, along with all of the different slates), we can see that almost one-third of the hitters being used in tournaments will be from the San Diego Padres. Yes, once again, the DraftKings salary algorithm missed the boat, but if for any reason the Padres bats fail, even just the three most popular ones, anyone who has made a different selection for their rosters will race past a large portion of the field if their alternative option does better.
That is where the White Sox come into play. While Yasmani Grandal is still on the injured list, Eloy Jimenez recently returned and this Chicago squad is loaded with lefty mashers from top to bottom. Konnor Pilkington has limited home runs in his 167 hitter matchups; however, he has a 12.0% walk rate with a 21.0% strikeout rate while allowing fly balls 34.2% of the time and a hard-contact rate of 36.9%. Clearly, he is living on the edge, as evidenced by his 5.23 xFIP, which is nearly a run and a half higher than his actual results.
Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Andrew Vaughn all have tremendous power against lefties. This trio should be adjacent in the lineup to Yoan Moncada and Jimenez, forming a potent full stack at the top of the order.
Evening Stack: Tigers at LHP Kris Bubic — 4.2 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool has highlighted catcher Eric Haase along with infielders Javier Baez, Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera as value options for the evening slate. While it has been a fruitful endeavor to target the Tigers with right-handed hurlers, they have actually been league average against southpaws. There is no need to look to Detroit on the main slate, but this recommendation is focusing on the first three games in the 8 o’clock hour. Over his last 178.2 innings, Kris Bubic has a below-average strikeout rate, above-average walk rate and is allowing 1.56 home runs per nine innings. Keep in mind that he also was demoted to Triple-A this season to “figure things out,” and he made three starts, with an unlucky 6.59 ERA over 13.1 innings. The Tigers look like a solid contrarian play.
Late Slate Stack: Giants vs. LHP Dallas Keuchel — 4.8 implied runs
It is hard to go wrong on the late slate, as the Astros are facing the pitcher formerly known as Noah Syndergaard, who has allowed multiple home runs in two of his last three starts. Then there are the Giants in a matchup with Dallas Keuchel, who is likely to be released by Arizona after already suffering that same fate earlier this season while with the White Sox.
In 11 combined starts spanning 48.1 innings, Keuchel has suffered a 7.63 ERA and nearly two baserunners per inning, along with 22 extra-base hits. The only downside with San Francisco is the proclivity for manager Gabe Kapler to pull his right-handed platoon batters once a right-handed reliever comes in the game. Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada and catcher Yermin Mercedes are unlikely to suffer that fate, though leadoff man Austin Slater and cleanup hitter Darin Ruf carry more risk of being lifted for a pinch-hitter, such as Joc Pederson, Brandon Belt or Mike Yastrzemski.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers (FREE MONEY: BET $10 TO WIN $200)
Top Target: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Reds — 3.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,500 | FanDuel $10,600
The only risk with this matchup is a slight chance of precipitation in the New York area during the game. Otherwise, this is a nice spot for Gerrit Cole against Cincinnati, which has a bottom-10 offense against right-handed pitchers by most metrics. While the projected lineup has a reasonable 21.0% strikeout rate over the last two seasons against righties, Cole has a 33.3% rate in that same timeframe against all batters. The Reds are also anemic on the power front, with a .139 ISO in that same window.
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Wild Card Target: RHP Josiah Gray vs. Mariners — 4.8 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $8,400
Though Josiah Gray suffered eight earned runs at the hands of the Marlins two starts ago, that was the only time in his last seven appearances that he allowed more than two earned runs. In his last seven games, Gray has tallied a 2.66 ERA and 48 strikeouts across 40.2 innings. The Mariners do a decent job with their 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, though their .143 ISO is not exactly going to strike fear in any hurler’s heart.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Dylan Cease at Cleveland Guardians (Main)
- RHP Spencer Strider vs. New York Mets (Main)
- RHP Jordan Lyles at Chicago Cubs (Main SP2, Evening)
- RHP Logan Webb vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Main, Late)
- RHP Luis H. Garcia at Los Angeles Angels (Main SP2, Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Coors Field Extravaganza (Salt to taste)
- Matt Carpenter vs. RHP Graham Ashcraft (Main)
- Will Smith at LHP Matthew Liberatore (Main)
- Hunter Dozier vs. RHP Beau Brieske (Evening)
- Aledmys Diaz at RHP Noah Syndergaard (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Keep an eye on Yankee Stadium, as the forecast is still too far out to see what precipitation coverage will spread out over the five boroughs. Washington also has some scattered showers, though the current storm track looks to be a non-issue. Finally, there is some late-evening rain in Minnesota, so that bears monitoring as well.
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