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MLB DFS Picks Tuesday 7/26: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today

Eric MacPherson



Tuesday, July 26, brings a robust 13-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/26)

Main Slate: Blue Jays vs. RHP Andre Pallante — 5.6 implied runs

The on-the-job training has been rough this season for rookie Andre Pallante, who has seen nearly one in five fly balls leave the yard. Though he could use more time to hone his craft in the minors, St. Louis seems content to let the soon-to-be 24-year-old work though things under the bright lights of The Show. If he can resume his high ground ball rate as demonstrated in the minors, he could be a solid back-of-the-rotation contributor. Until then, keep picking on him with power hitters.

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Essentially anyone in the Blue Jays starting lineup tonight is on the short list of viable options. Ranking this group with an eye towards projected popularity, production, price and positional eligibility, Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman should be the main focus for full stacks.

Evening Slate: Twins at LHP Ethan Small — 4.9 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Batters Tool likes several Twins tonight in their matchup with rookie Ethan Small. This will be the second appearance in The Show for the 24-year-old southpaw, who was knocked around by the Cubs on Memorial Day. Small is the sixth-ranked prospect in the Milwaukee farm system, and while he does have the stuff to be a mid-rotation starter, most of the key projection systems have his strikeout rate tailing off dramatically once he becomes a regular in the big leagues.

Minnesota has been an above-average offense all season and it came out of the All-Star Break strong, scoring 17 runs in its first two games back. Today, the Twins are likely to be rolling out a lineup with at least seven or eight right-handed batsmen. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco are the trio to target, with Gary Sanchez, Kyle Garlick and Jose Miranda the go-to options for a full stack.

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Late Slate: Dodgers vs. RHP Josiah Gray — 5.7 implied runs

This could be a long night for Josiah Gray going against a loaded Los Angeles offense. Gray was dealt to the Nationals last year as part of the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal, and he has flashed upside potential with his strikeout mix. Unfortunately, control and power have been an issue and the 24-year-old hurler has ceded 22 home runs, which is the second most in the league. Across 371 same-handed matchups since the beginning of last year, Gray has a 27.8% strikeout rate, though he is allowing a .201 ISO. Lefties have gotten to him as well with a .306 ISO, but he has at least cobbled together a 23.5% strikeout rate, so all is not lost.

Over the last season and some change, Mookie Betts (.225), Freddie Freeman (.219), Will Smith (.220), Max Muncy (.229) and Jake Lamb (.213) all have isolated power marks north of .210 against right-handed pitchers. Trea Turner is on his way to his first ever 20/20 season and should do some damage against his former squad. Justin Turner, Gavin Lux and Cody Bellinger will be at the bottom of the order, but they still provide discounted access as well as differentiation to this fantasy-friendly matchup.

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Primary Target: LHP Carlos Rodon at Diamondbacks — 3.7 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,800

Carlos Rodon gets a park upgrade heading into Chase Field where the roof will be closed tonight, which will help the humidor being employed reach full efficacy. While he had a rough go in Los Angeles against the Dodgers last Thursday, Rodon has been mostly spectacular this season. Through 19 starts, he has allowed more than two runs only four times while also rolling up the fifth-most strikeouts in the league. While Arizona has been above average this season against southpaws, Rodon is in the Cy Young conversation and he should not have too much to fear from the Diamondbacks tonight.

Secondary Target: RHP Luis H. Garcia at Athletics — 3.1 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,100 | FanDuel $9,500

Though Oakland was frisky last night, roaring back for a 7-5 victory, Luis H. Garcia is a far cry better than last night’s starter Jake Odorizzi. While they have been on a mini-heater, winning four of their last five games, the Athletics still have scored just the second-fewest runs in the league this season. Garcia does an excellent job of preventing runs, and he has continued to build on the success of last year with just over a strikeout per inning.

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Wild Card Target: LHP Shane McClanahan at Orioles — 3.2 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,600

There is nothing wrong with Shane McClanahan, other than his salary level needs yet another above-average performance to break even. Clearly, this is within the range of likely outcomes for the league leader in ERA and WHIP. In his last dozen starts, the 25-year-old southpaw has allowed more than one run just one time. There will be some moments where he is a mere mortal, though those have been few and far between so far this season.

Additional Opportunities

Borrowing from yesterday’s analysis, prior to Merrill Kelly supplanting Tyler Gilbert — we should again look to target Gilbert in the props market with his distinct lack of strikeouts. Though his 3.5 over/under on his strikeout prop may feel low, the under is actually in play. The Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 3.1 strikeouts, giving him a 61% probability of failing to surpass the over. In his last three starts, spanning 14.1 innings, he has totaled four whiffs. Only once this season does he have more than three strikeouts, and that was against the Dodgers in a game where he had six strikeouts but also allowed four home runs. Tonight, the Giants will be rolling out a lineup loaded with right-handed batsmen that rarely strike out. There is a decent chance they knock Gilbert out of the game in the early innings, which bodes well for this wager.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. RHP Spencer Strider at Philadelphia Phillies (Main)
  2. RHP Mike Clevinger at Detroit Tigers (Main)
  3. RHP George Kirby vs. Texas Rangers (Late)

Other Hitting Options

  1. Ji-Man Choi at RHP Spenser Watkins (Main)
  2. Nomar Mazara at RHP Garrett Hill (Main)
  3. Bobby Witt Jr. vs. LHP Jose Suarez (Evening)
  4. Wilmer Flores at LHP Tyler Gilbert (Late)
  5. Jesse Winker vs. RHP Dane Dunning (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

Similar to Monday, we will need to keep an eye on the forecasts in Baltimore and Philadelphia, as there are currently a wide range of outcomes entirely dependent on the storm track. Kansas City has the potential for late-inning rain, though the arrival time and voracity are not yet well defined by the weather models.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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