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MLB DFS Picks Wednesday 7/13: Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks Today

Eric MacPherson



Wednesday, July 13, brings split-slate action with a four-game early slate starting at 12:05 p.m. ET. Then there is a nine-game featured slate with the standard 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.

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DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (7/13)

Main Slate: New York Yankees vs. LHP Mike Minor — 6.0 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Stack Tool laughs at Mike Minor, even with DraftKings handing out salaries to the key Yankees that are higher than most of the players participating in the Coors Field Extravaganza tonight. This looks like the end of the line for 34-year-old lefty Mike Minor, and it will not be a surprise if he is released during the All-Star Break. He has allowed home runs in each of his seven starts, including three games with two or more. While he has gamely taken the ball every five or six days to eat innings, it has resulted in Cincinnati losing all but one game.

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Tonight we could see some early Home Run Derby results in New York from the Yankees. Minor has allowed 2.34 home runs per nine innings this season, and the players in pinstripes lead the league in that category. Aaron Judge is the first batter to launch 30 long balls, and even with missing several games each, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are still in the top 10. Josh Donaldson has been in a groove, and with his long track record of success against lefties, he is a strong option tonight. Two-time batting champion D.J. LeMahieu is an excellent choice, as is catcher Kyle Higashioka if he is serving as the caddy for Severino tonight.

Evening Stack: Texas Rangers vs. RHP Paul Blackburn — 4.5 implied runs

The Stokastic Top Batters Tool sees through the façade of Oakland’s All-Star Game representative Paul Blackburn. MLB makes sure to include at least one player from every team for the Mid-Season Classic, which leads to silliness like Blackburn making the roster. Though his numbers on the back of the baseball card are not bad, with a 3.36 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 6-4 record, he has allowed two home runs in three of his las four starts and has never been good enough to appear in more than 10 games for the parent club prior to this season. For his career, Blackburn has played in just 47 games across six different seasons, resulting in 229.0 total innings with a 4.79 ERA.

Blackburn is susceptible to left-handed power, which puts Corey Seager, Nate Lowe, Kole Calhoun and Brad Miller on the short list of Rangers tonight. Former Athletic Marcus Semien and cleanup hitter Adolis Garcia can more than hold their own in same-handed matchups to complete a full stack.

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Early Slate: Washington Nationals vs. RHP Chris Flexen — 4.6 implied runs

This afternoon, it looks like the Twins against southpaw Aaron Ashby or the Nationals against righty Chris Flexen are the way to go. Flexen was given a second chance at a spot in The Show by a pitching-starved Seattle club last year. During the 2020 season, the former Met churned out a solid season in the KBO and turned around what had been a disastrous decline. He is well below league average with his 16.2% strikeout rate over the last two seasons and survives by inducing weak contact. That may work in the Pacific Northwest, but in our nation’s capital, the forecast is for game-time temperatures in the mid-80s with heavy humidity. Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Nelson Cruz are the trio to target. The options fall off dramatically after that, though if a full stack is desired, taking a chance on Yadiel Hernandez, Lane Thomas or Luis V. Garcia is reasonable, depending on positional or salary cap constraints.

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Top Target: RHP Luis Severino vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.0 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $9,300

Cincinnati came through plating four runs in the top of the ninth to edge out their hosts 4-3 in Yankee Stadium. Tonight they have another tough matchup against Luis Severino, and while they may outperform their seven scoreless innings with only five baserunners and 11 strikeouts that they posted against Gerrit Cole, it probably won’t be by much.

The Reds are top five in strikeouts and bottom 10 in scoring against right-handed hurlers this season. Severino and the Yankees are 3-to-1 favorites in this matchup, and the Stokastic projections like the 28-year-old hurler as one of the better point-per-dollar options on DraftKings. Additionally, Severino has seven quality starts in 15 outings this season, which bodes well for his FanDuel scoring.

Secondary Target: RHP Jon Gray vs. Oakland Athletics — 3.2 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $9,000

Jon Gray’s salary is just too hard to overlook on DraftKings, and he is an above-average option on FanDuel. Though Oakland has been league average from a strikeout perspective, the offense is laughable against right-handed pitching, as evidenced by an 85 wRC+ for the season.

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This year Gray has seen marked improvements now that he has moved from Coors Field to the friendly pitching park in Arlington. In his last two starts, he did allow two home runs to the Twins and another pair to the Mets in New York. Though, to his credit, he had only two walks and 15 strikeouts in 11 innings against those offensive juggernauts. In six June starts, Gray logged 37.2 innings with a 2.39 ERA, allowing only two home runs while recording 44 strikeouts.

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Early Slate Target: RHP Brady Singer vs. Detroit Tigers — 4.0 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,300 | FanDuel $7,600

After their moment of glory as a recommended evening-slate stack yesterday, the Tigers are returning to the reality of being a team to pick on now that a right-hander is back on the mound. This season Detroit has a league-worst 69 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which is nearly a full standard deviation away from the second-worst team. Additionally, the Tigers’ 24.3% strikeout rate is the fifth highest in the league against righties, and today’s projected lineup has a 25.3% two-year strikeout rate.

Brady Singer shuts down same-handed batsmen, and while he does allow above-average power to lefties, that should not be much of a concern today. Riley Greene, Harold Castro, and switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jeimer Candelario are all below-average power bats against righties. The only real threat is Akil Baddoo, who has spent most of the season in Triple-A, resulting from his disappointing early results. Singer is an excellent SP2 and worthy of lead consideration as well.

Alternate Target: RHP Josiah Gray vs. Seattle Mariners — 4.8 implied runs

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,500 | FanDuel $9,300

When this article was posted, it was not clear who would be starting the first game of today’s doubleheader after the Mariners and Nationals were washed out Tuesday. Here is the assessment of this matchup from yesterday’s article; keep in mind that Gray’s salary has increased by $1,000 or more since last night depending on your MLB DFS site of choice: Though Josiah Gray suffered eight earned runs at the hands of the Marlins two starts ago, that was the only time in his last seven appearances that he allowed more than two earned runs. In his last seven games, Gray has tallied a 2.66 ERA and 48 strikeouts across 40.2 innings. The Mariners do a decent job with their 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, though their .143 ISO is not exactly going to strike fear in any hurler’s heart.

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Other Pitching Options

  1. LHP Aaron Ashby at Minnesota Twins (Early SP2)
  2. LHP Shane McClanahan vs. Boston Red Sox (Main)
  3. LHP Justin Steele vs. Baltimore Orioles (Evening)
  4. RHP Shohei Ohtani vs. Houston Astros (Main, Late)
  5. RHP Cristian Javier at Los Angeles Angels (Main, Late)

Other Hitting Options

  1. Brandon Nimmo at RHP Charlie Morton (Early)
  2. Byron Buxton vs. LHP Aaron Ashby (Early, Afternoon)
  3. Darick Hall at RHP Ross Stripling (Main)
  4. Luis Robert at RHP Aaron Civale (Main)
  5. Jared Walsh vs. RHP Cristian Javier (Late)

Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes

The weather looks to be solid in most scenarios during the Wednesday wall-to-wall baseball action. Atlanta has the usual potential for roving showers, but nothing that should create major issues. Cleveland may see sprinkles, but it does not look like anything will be too heavy during the game.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! Looking for more MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of daily fantasy baseball articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Stokastic MLB DFS home page.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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