Thursday’s slate of MLB DFSÂ action splits somewhat differently between DraftKings and FanDuel, with the latter site leaving the seven-inning Reds – Nationals game off the board and starting their slate at 8:10 p.m. ET. This takes the two best pitchers of the night off the board entirely on the blue site, while Sonny Gray and Stephen Strasburg are both interesting in short start situations on the DraftKings slate. Facing pitchers of that caliber in shortened starts limits the appeal of either team’s offense as a stack despite the premium bats available on both sides. The home run picks below include the early game, but the Power Index and the bulk of this article will focus on the five games that appear across both slates.
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MLB DFS picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel will come together in interesting ways today, and it should be a good time for building to unique constructions.
Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home-run candidates for each team.
MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free baseball picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Carson Kelly — 5.02
Baltimore Orioles: Maikel Franco — 8.31
Chicago White Sox: Yasmani Grandal — 10.74
Cincinnati Reds: Jesse Winker — 8.38
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 6.21
Los Angeles Dodgers: Mookie Betts — 5.15
Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 3.91
San Francisco Giants: Evan Longoria — 14.01
Seattle Mariners: Jarred Kelenic — 6.14
St. Louis Cardinals: Dylan Carlson — 9.51
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun — 5.26
Washington Nationals: Josh Bell — 5.79
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
With both Strasburg and Gray off the board on one site and in difficult matchups even in short starts where they are available, the Top Pitchers Tool tells a different story across the industry. Leaving those two out of the conversation, Dylan Cease, Shohei Ohtani, Chris Bassitt and Alex Wood are the primary considerations, while the other available starters are primarily targets for stacks on tonight’s MLB DFS slate.
Cease is finally seeing his awaited talent shine through at the big-league level. He has a 4.16 xFIP and a 1.30 WHIP across his first 45.1 innings, while striking out 29.0% of hitters. The WHIP is bumped up too high by his untenable 12.4% walk rate, but so far Cease has largely gotten away with his improved but lingering inconsistencies with control and command. The ability to strike opposing hitters out was never in question, but Cease has made significant strides, inducing 14.5% swinging strikes this season. He sits in the 77th percentile in hard hit rate allowed, the 85th percentile in expected batting average against, the 76th in strikeout rate, 78th in chase rate and 59th percentile in barrel rate allowed. He has been excellent to start the season despite the walks and will be facing an Orioles team that sits in the middle of the league with a 23.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Baltimore has just a .144 team ISO in the split this season and they have created runs 15% worse than average, though much of that sample was without key hitter Anthony Santander in the lineup. The Orioles offense is likely slightly better than those numbers, but Cease is in a good position to notch another strong start tonight, making him highly viable on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Ohtani is not in an easy matchup, facing an Athletics squad that creates runs 5% better than average against righties. Oakland has pounded 46 home runs in the split, and they have a .182 team ISO, both among league leaders, while they sit at an average team strikeout rate of 23.8% against right-handers. Ohtani, meanwhile, has been erratic to start the season. He has a sparkling 34.9% strikeout rate over his first 30.1 innings in six starts, but the 17.1% walk rate and lack of depth are both headaches for MLB DFS purposes. Ohtani has managed a 3.59 xFIP and a 1.25 WHIP despite the free passes, but that is not necessarily something that will continue all year. Eventually his walk rate will regress toward his norms, or the run production against will catch up. Ohtani costs $7,700 on DraftKings but $10,300 on FanDuel. He seems a far stronger play on the two-pitcher site, though the extreme price tag will scare away all but the boldest of public ownership shares, potentially creating a minor opportunity on a small slate.
On the other side of the same contest, Bassitt will be looking to continue his solid start to 2021. He has completed 61.0 innings over 10 starts, providing reliable depth and production. His strikeout rate sits at 25.7%, up from 21.1% over 63.0 innings in 11 starts in 2020. Bassitt has improved his xFIP from 4.49 to 3.67 and his WHIP from 1.16 to 1.10 this year. He is inducing 11.6% swinging strikes, which is a marked improvement from the 9.9% he was at last season and the 8.9% he has averaged for his career. He throws a six-pitch mix including a turbo sinker and four-seamer that sit at nearly identical average velocities but function as extremely different fastballs, while mixing in an improved change up that he is throwing slightly more often, an effective cutter that is his second-most used pitch plus a wipeout slider and improved curveball. Bassitt’s underrated slider is carrying a .065 xSLG this season. He has thrown 74 of them to right-handed hitters and just four to lefties, striking out 18 hitters with the pitch. Bassitt has been excellent keeping opposing hitters off balance this season. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in hard hit rate allowed and 69th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, as well as the 79th percentile of barrel rate allowed. If the form holds, Bassitt will remain a strong and likely underappreciated MLB DFS option all season. Bassitt will not necessarily benefit from a matchup with an Angels team that is missing Mike Trout. The active roster for Los Angeles has struck out at a 24.8% clip against right-handed pitching this season, ninth worst in baseball, but they have a solid .185 team ISO and create runs 11% better than average in the split. Both starters in this contest are solid options, but neither is entirely safe.
Southpaw Alex Wood has been solid over his first 42.0 innings and seven starts this season. Wood has a 25.5% strikeout rate and a 2.88 xFIP with a 1.05 WHIP so far. Wood made just two unremarkable starts in 2020 but is perhaps underrated overall. He has a solid 3.54 xFIP over an 893.2 inning career, striking out 22.2% of hitters, around the league average, and he has made significant strides in inducing swinging strikes over the past few years; Wood is currently up to 13.1% in the category, despite a career average of just 10.1%. Wood will be facing a depleted Dodgers lineup that is quietly tied with Texas for ninth worst in baseball with a 24.9% strikeout rate against lefties this season. Los Angeles has created runs 9% worse than average in the split and has just a .148 team ISO, there is plenty of statistical support for the idea that Wood could hold this offense in check tonight while racking up more than a handful of strikeouts.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners draw lefty Kolby Allard, who is making his first start of the season for the depleted Rangers tonight. Allard has been solid over 20.0 innings out of the bullpen in 2021, compiling a 3.66 xFIP and a 1.25 WHIP with a 26.7% strikeout rate. Pitchers with inflated strikeout rates in bullpen roles come down when they enter the starting rotation, as they are not able to throw the same pitch mix across a full game as in one or two bullpen innings. Additionally, there is the immeasurable and somewhat apocryphal idea of throwing at 100% instead of keeping something in reserve for a full start also leading to pitchers putting up stronger numbers in bullpen situations at times. Allard has boosted his swinging strike rate from 9.4% last year to 11.5% this season and he has boosted his fastball usage from 46.7% to 53.8% while in the pen, increasing his average velocity slightly from 91.5 to 92.0 mph. Pitchers typically limit the full mix of offerings to their best few pitches, so he may be more of the curveball and changeup pitcher tonight, which may not be a good thing, his changeup in particular has been a vulnerable pitch in the Majors so far. Over 33.2 innings in eight starts last season, Allard had a 21.1% strikeout rate and an ugly 13.2% walk rate, leading to a 1.51 WHIP and a 5.86 xFIP. In 45.1 innings in 2019, he had just a 15.9% strikeout rate with a 4.01 xFIP and 1.57 WHIP. Ultimately, this is a targetable pitcher.
The Mariners rank several pegs down the Top Stacks board tonight, but they are not drawing enough public popularity for the matchup, leaving small degrees of leverage for MLB DFS gamers to exploit. The Mariners have not been great against lefties this season, they have struck out 28.3% of the time in the split, fifth worst in baseball so far, while creating runs 15% worse than average against southpaws. The team has a .175 ISO against lefties, however, and they have hit 18 home runs, placing them around the middle of the league. With low ownership and appealing prices, there are compelling reasons to chase the matchup with Seattle stacks.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”05/27/2021″ team=”mariners”]
Rookie Jarred Kelenic has had an up and down start after arriving with major expectations a mere 55 plate appearances ago. Kelenic is priced at just $2,600 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings, which is inexpensive if considering only the pedigree and obvious talent potential. Baseball can be fickle with underdeveloped talent, however, and Kelenic is at just .157/.218/.314 to start his career. He has a .157 ISO and two home runs so far, adding a stolen base for MLB DFS purposes, but he has created runs 48% worse than average in the small sample and could be currently miscast as a leadoff hitter. Kelenic is very much in play but would likely be better served hitting in a later spot in the lineup. At under 10.0% ownership across the industry, however, he makes a strong consideration when building Mariners stacks.
Mitch Haniger is the most expensive Mariners bat on both FanDuel, where he costs $3,400, and DraftKings, where he lands at a pricey $5,300. Haniger has been terrific to start the season, putting up a .262/.319/.551 slash with a .289 ISO and 13 home runs. He has created runs 41% better than average so far and is too cheap for his upside on the blue site. This is leading to extreme popularity. Haniger is pulling in a nearly 30.0% ownership projection, which begins to get concerning when considering baseball’s variance. On a small slate, the ownership mark will likely be far higher within lineups comprised of Mariners stacks. This is not to say he is skippable in most constructions, Haniger is the team’s best offensive weapon, but he has more appeal for half the ownership, even at a higher price, on the DraftKings slate.
Kyle Lewis is a discounted bat at $3,700 on DraftKings and a mere $2,900 on FanDuel. Lewis’s talent has always been obvious — he simply suffered several major setbacks in the minors due to devastating injuries. Lewis had a strong “full season” debut in 2020, seeing 242 plate appearances in the truncated year, going .262/.364/.434, 11 home runs and a .175 ISO. In 75 plate appearances a year prior, Lewis posted a .268/.293/.592 slash with six home runs and a .324 ISO. In 128 opportunities this year, Lewis has hit four home runs and has a .243/.344/.369 slash but just a .126 ISO. There is more upside in the bat. The power is obvious, and it would be a win to be ahead of the curve on the first day of the breakout.
Veteran Kyle Seager mans the hot corner for the Mariners and hits from the left side of the plate, which should not be a major concern in a matchup against a weak soft-throwing lefty. Seager sits at a .230/.299/.454 to start the season, though he has a strong .224 ISO and has hit nine home runs in 204 plate appearances. For his career, Seager has a .179 ISO and a .248/.303/.427 slash while creating runs 2% better than average against same-handed pitching. He is a fine option on both sites.
Ty France offers multi-position eligibility in the middle of the lineup and he is dirt cheap on both sites. France is at the minimum $2,000 salary on FanDuel, while costing just $2,900 on DraftKings. He has a .239/.339/.373 slash to start the season and has been 9% better than average creating runs so far, numbers that make his salary somewhat head-scratching. He has just three home runs in 165 plate appearances, but there is significant dormant power. France hit 27 home runs in just 348 plate appearances in AAA in 2019, adding another seven in 201 tries in the Show after getting the call to the Padres that year. France is very easy to roster at under 5% ownership on FanDuel and is not someone to skip despite more popularity on DraftKings.
Shortstop J.P. Crawford is another player that is coming up underpriced – a major theme for the bottom of this lineup – at just $2,300 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. Crawford sits at .255/.320/.327 for the season, though he has flashed no power in hitting just one home runs and putting up a .073 ISO while creating runs 10% worse than average. Crawford has utility from the left side of the plate and fills a premium position at low cost. At less than 5% ownership across the industry, it makes sense to consider shares of Crawford in at least some Mariners constructions, given his mid-range upside for both power and speed.
Catchers Jacob Nottingham and Tom Murphy are both in the projected lineup and they cost just $2,000 and $2,100 respectively on FanDuel, $3,500 and $3,300 on DraftKings. Both right-handed catchers have significant power upside and struggle with everything else. Nottingham has made just 31 plate appearances this season. He sits at .138/.161/.379 but has hit two home runs already and owns a .241 ISO. Murphy has seen more opportunity, responding with four home runs and a .184 ISO in 95 plate appearances where he has otherwise gone .138/.194/.322. Neither hitter is reliable, Nottingham has created runs 59% worse than average in his tiny sample, while Murphy has not been much better, sitting at 55% below average. Neither is mandatory, but either could hit a home run or even two on this slate. Rostering both seems like overkill, but choosing between the two in a fair share of Mariners stacks could have upside.
Infielder Jack Mayfield is mostly an afterthought form the bottom of the lineup. He is yet another minimum-priced FanDuel play, and he slots in at the same price on DraftKings, which has some appeal when adding second and third base eligibility. Mayfield has made just 19 plate appearances and is off to a rocky .053/.053/.053 start with a .000 ISO which is only worth mentioning for the chuckle. However, Mayfield did hit 26 home runs in 431 AAA plate appearances for Houston’s affiliate in 2019 and 16 in 479 tries the year before. At 30 years old, Mayfield is far more a quad-A player than he is a prospect, but he is not entirely bereft of talent. Mixing in a few shares could lead to a very low-owned bit of pop if all things go well.
HR Call: Evan Longoria — San Francisco Giants
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.
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