Sunday, Aug. 28, wraps up the weekend with a robust 11-game main slate that begins at 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (8/28)
Main Slate: Blue Jays vs. LHP Tucker Davidson — 5.6 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has been counting down the days while eagerly anticipating the next Tucker Davidson start. The former Atlanta farmhand has been disappointing in his 52 big league innings spread across three seasons, resulting in a 5.37 ERA, 1.60 WHIP on only two more strikeouts (36) than walks (34), along with nearly three extra-base hits per nine innings. In his last two seasons, spanning 223 batters, the 26-year-old has a 13.9% strikeout rate with a 14.3% walk rate.
How crazy is it that Toronto traded for Whit Merrifield only to turn him into a platoon player with Cavan Biggio, and neither of them is a lineup regular? Heck, when catcher Alejandro Kirk gets a day off, he serves as the designated hitter because the Blue Jays do not want to lose their cleanup hitter. Backup catcher Danny Jansen is likely to be in the lineup, and he is the perfect differentiation option as part of a wraparound stack. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Matt Chapman and Teoscar Hernandez all have a long history of success against southpaws and should be the core four of any Toronto stacks this afternoon.
Mid-Afternoon Slate: Padres at RHP Jonathan Heasley — 5.6 implied runs
This is likely to be a long or short afternoon for second-year southpaw Jonathan Heasley. The 25-year-old seems more like a “crafty lefty” who is hanging onto a rotation spot at the end of his career. Over 359 career batters faced, he has an egregious 6.04 xFIP with an anemic 15.0% strikeout rate, which does him no favors with a 10.0% walk rate. In a fun twist, 179 same-handed batsmen have a whopping .377 wOBA and a .284 ISO, which favors Juan Soto, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham, who are well above average in same-handed matchups. Manny Machado and Brandon Drury will be bringing the lumber in the middle of the order, and switch-hitters Josh Bell and Jurickson Profar should be in the top half of the lineup as well. This game has the makings of a fun same-game parlay, as a home run or two is very live from the aforementioned players. All we need to do is pick one or two and then sit back and watch a fun game with our fingers crossed and dreams of a nice payday.
Afternoon Slate: Yankees at RHP Adrian Martinez — 5.6 implied runs
There are only two games providing late-afternoon action, and all eyes, of course, will be on the Yankees as they face Adrian Martinez. The Sean Manaea trade netted Martinez and infielder Euribiel Angeles. Martinez is a 25-year-old who already has had Tommy John surgery. He has a marginal fastball but an above-average changeup. The various projection models are not kind to Martinez, and they have him pegged for 6.7 to 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings, which is below league average.
Look to the New York power bats, which include most of their lineup. Someone is likely to get a day off, but Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Donaldson, Andrew Benintendi and Gleyber Torres provide plenty of ways to mix and match lineups. Differentiation can easily be found by leaving off Judge, which, of course, is tough to do, considering he leads the league in home runs with 49 — an eye-popping 14 more than the next closest player. Rookie Oswaldo Cabrera is likely to be overlooked, and while he has an average bat, he also is getting a lot of good looks from opposing pitchers as one of the “weaker” hitters in this lineup.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Max Scherzer vs. Rockies — 2.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,400 | FanDuel $11,000
Colorado has a paltry 2.5 implied run total, which is reminiscent of the seven-inning doubleheaders from last season. The Rockies have a bottom-five offense against right-handed hurlers, and Max Scherzer is the level boss in the righty-lefty-righty mix that the Mets are rolling out after Jacob deGrom. Across 18 outings this season, Scherzer has a 2.33 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, and his 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings are right in line with his career average. There will be plenty of “Sunday lineups” providing discounted hitting options, so do not be dissuaded by this apex salary.
Secondary Target: RHP Justin Verlander vs. Orioles — 3.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $11,400
Happy Ace Day! The rotations have aligned once again, and Sunday is loaded with frontline starters. Somehow in his age-39 season, Justin Verlander leads the league with his 16-3 record, 1.87 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He is averaging 95.5 pitches per appearance, and while that is his lowest figure since his rookie season, it still has been enough propel him to 19 quality starts, which is the second most in the league. Baltimore is looking like a team of destiny, having won five of six games. However, they are averaging just 3.7 runs in this stretch, and though the Orioles are in line for a rare series sweep in Houston, this has been more of a testament to their pitching rather than their offense. Sunday’s projected lineup has a .162 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, but it comes with a 25.8% strikeout rate.
Wild Card Target: RHP Ross Stripling vs. Angels — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,400 | FanDuel $7,700
Rookie Nick Lodolo received consideration for this category with his matchup against Washington. However, there were not enough salary savings to make the risk of a poor outing worthwhile, considering all of the other aces in action. Though Ross Stripling is far from exciting, he is an effective pitcher and he comes at a significant discount on DraftKings. This should make him a popular SP2, with his salary savings being used to upgrade multiple hitters. The 32-year-old journeyman rarely goes more than 75 to 80 pitches, but that should be enough to get him through the fifth inning and be in line for a win if his offense can provide early run support as projected. There is also a chance that Mike Trout or Shohei Ohtani gets a day off, which would further boost the prospects of Stripling.
Additional Opportunities
Adrian Martinez currently has a 3.5 strikeout prop for his matchup with the Yankees. The Stokastic MLB Player Props Tool has him for 2.8 strikeouts and a 68% chance of failing to reach the four whiffs needed to surpass the over. This wager can be found for -106, which works out to a 31% expected ROI. In his five major league starts, Martinez has recorded five strikeouts twice and three strikeouts in his other three games. He also has allowed 2.6 home runs per nine innings, and the hope is that New York sends him to the showers early.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
Other Pitching Options
- LHP Julio Urias at Miami Marlins (Early)
- RHP Dylan Cease vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Main)
- LHP Nick Lodolo at Washington Nationals (Main)
- LHP Robbie Ray vs. Cleveland Guardians (Afternoon)
- RHP Adam Wainwright vs. Atlanta Braves (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Joey Gallo at RHP Edward Cabrera (Early)
- Kyle Farmer at LHP Patrick Corbin (Main)
- Joc Pederson at RHP Aaron Sanchez (Main)
- Seth Brown vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt (Afternoon)
- Nolan Arenado vs. RHP Jake Odorizzi (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There is a slight chance of rain in the Chicago and Philadelphia areas, though nothing that should cause any concern. This slate is loaded with top-shelf pitching options as well as several gas cans in search of a match, which should provide a fun tournament environment.
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