NBA DFS action lines up with a six-game Thursday that already has the now customary extreme value plays established for the night. The value on the slate makes it easy to get to any combination of premium players available, making it likely that stars-and-scrubs constructions will be the preferred approach. The six-game schedule has already seen the Heat – Spurs contest shift from 8:30 ET to 7 ET due to winter surprising the city of San Antonio. That game is targetable for a few pay-up options, and it lands in the middle of the board with a 221.5 total. The other early game, a matchup between the Timberwolves and Pistons, is the night’s most heavily totaled game at 229, with the next-highest mark coming in the Suns – Hawks game. With several excellent pay-up options and all the value one could hope for on the board, a strong blend of premium players and value options is the approach once again, it should be easy to secure a foundation of highly probable players from every tier.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With six games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Drew Eubanks: DraftKings — $3,300 — C | FanDuel — $4,500 — C/PF
The top option on the board on both sites comes from the extreme value tier on one, and just a fair lower mid-range salary on another. Spurs backup big man Drew Eubanks is projected for 25.9 minutes, stepping into the starting lineup in the absence of Jakob Poeltl and an assortment of centers and forwards. Eubanks has produced 1.05 fantasy points per minute across all situations in his limited role this season. He plays just 12.3 minutes per game, but he has seen action in 47 contests. Eubanks has a 58.7% true shooting percentage with a 12.4% assist rate and 14.8% rebounding percentage. He is projected for more than enough time to pay off his salary and then some across the industry. He should be rostered aggressively as he creates the initial level-up to the top player combinations on both sites.
On the FanDuel slate, Eubanks checks in from the lower mid-range as a $4,500 option who, critically, carries both center and power forward eligibility. The opportunity to roster Eubanks’ value without sacrificing the singular center spot on the blue site helps the Spurs big man land in the optimal lineup in a slate-leading 32.7% of Awesemo’s simulations. Eubanks also crests the top of the slate among all players with his 35.22% boom score probability, outpacing the field by 10 percentage points and landing 12 ahead of the next-highest center or power forward, Lakers star Anthony Davis at 23.18%. Eubanks comes in with a 27.18-point median projection on FanDuel and he is justifiably popular on the site. The public is projected to include the popular big man in 39.5% of their lineups, a number that may grow as afternoon turns to evening. Adding shares of Eubanks, despite a -6.8 leverage score, seems like a sound approach. He is more likely to be a key foundational piece in all types of lineup combinations than he is an ownership issue.
At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Eubanks is easily the top play on the slate, despite being limited to just the center and utility spots on the site. Eubanks checks in with a 42% optimal lineup appearance rate at that price, more than double the next-most frequently optimal player at any position on DraftKings tonight. That option is Toronto big man Pascal Siakam, who can be rostered as either a center or power forward on the site, but who lands in the optimal lineup in just 20.9% of simulated slates for his $9,000 salary. It is an easy approach to roster both pieces before moving on to filling out guards and forwards on the site. Eubanks is projected for a 26.8-point median night and he will be owned at an appropriate rate by the field. The extreme value option is already projected to be in half of the public’s lineups at 49.3%, and he could conceivably go up with the incredibly low salary. Eubanks has a 58.7% boom score probability that also leads the slate. He should be rostered aggressively in DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.
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Anthony Edwards: DraftKings — $8,000 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $8,300 — SF/SG
The Timberwolves are in Detroit to face the Pistons in the game with the highest total on the board in Vegas. Minnesota is favored by seven points over the lowly Pistons, and several of the team’s options are looking like potentially strong producers on this slate. At a fair price on both sites, Anthony Edwards offers multi-position eligibility on the wing, and he is coming up somewhat under-owned on both sites. Edwards has premium upside when he is going right, over the course of the full season in all situations he has put up 1.08 fantasy points per minute on 26.7% usage, up from the 1.0 he posted on 26.4% last year. Edwards is capable of putting up 50 fantasy points on any given slate, and he comes in a highly totaled game against a bad opponent that should offer little resistance. The Timberwolves also may be without several rotation pieces once again, Patrick Beverley is now probable, but not confirmed, and D’Angelo Russell is questionable. Edwards will have plenty of opportunity on the floor tonight. He is in a good matchup to produce, his price is right, and his ownership is lower than it should be, creating an ideal situation for GPP lineups.
Edwards is an $8,000 option at either shooting guard or small forward on the DraftKings slate. He lands in the optimal lineup in 14.9% of simulated slates at that price and positioning, the 12th-most frequently optimal player on the entire slate. Edwards ranks behind a handful of other options at each of his positions, but almost every player at the top of the board can be rostered at multiple positions, making lineup combinations a breeze. The multi-position option checks in with a 37.3-point median projection on DraftKings and he has a 14.62% boom score probability, but the field is rostering him in just 13.3% of their lineups. Getting to a player with Edwards’ upside from the reasonable mid-range as a mix-and-match piece that carries positive leverage seems like a worthwhile idea for lineup construction on this slate, it is easy to exceed the field’s ownership and his 1.6 leverage score is one of the better marks among frequently optimal options.
Edwards has the same positional flexibility on the FanDuel slate, but his salary climbs the $8,300 on the site. That mark is perfectly acceptable against the blue site’s higher salary cap, Edwards ranks out as a quality option on this site as well, landing in the optimal lineup in 13.3% of simulated slates. That makes Edwards the 25th most frequently optimal player among all choices, with the board spiking higher for a handful of players than it does across town on DraftKings. After Eubanks’ 32.7% optimal rate there are 10 players who have optimal rates above 20%, the mark at which 12th-ranked Dejounte Murray sits on this slate. On DraftKings that range is packed much tighter, Eubanks is optimal 42% of the time followed by Siakam at 20.9% and then 18 players between 17.5% and 12% optimal. Even as more of a mix-in option and less of a priority on FanDuel, Edwards can still be targeted for more ownership than the field is projected to reach. The wing is carrying just a 10.8% popularity projection leaving him at a targetable 2.6 leverage score. Edwards has a 36.09-point median projection and a relatively uninspiring 9.87% boom score probability on the FanDuel slate. He can be rostered in more lineups than the field, but realistic expectations should be kept.
Mikal Bridges: DraftKings — $6,400 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $6,300 — SF/PF
An overlooked mid-range option from another highly totaled game on the slate is Suns forward Mikal Bridges, who currently is projecting well with questionable teammates Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton also projected in. Both of Bridges’ teammates are probable, they both returned in the team’s last game and seem likely to play, but if they do not go the forward’s value would only increase on this slate. As it stands, Bridges comes in as a player with excellent leverage and a fair chance at delivering value for the fair price. It is important to remember that Bridges averages 0.73 fantasy points per minute under normal circumstances, but he flashes occasional upside. Over the team’s three most recent games, Bridges has a 0.97 per-minute mark in a massive 40.3 minutes per night. In the team’s most recent game, with Crowder returning, Bridges played 40 minutes and put up a team-leading 51.6 FanDuel points in a monster performance for his exceptionally low ownership. The forward is projected for a 38-minute night as things currently stand, but he is drawing low single-digit ownership across the industry on a somewhat limited slate.
On FanDuel, Bridges checks in with a highly appealing 6.5 leverage score as a $6,300 option at either forward position. Bridges has a 27.82-point median projection on the blue site, but he is limited for upside with just an 8.88% boom score probability. He is in the optimal lineup in an encouraging 11.2% of simulated slates, which does not put him among the most probable players, but certainly leaves enough to chase for low-owned opportunity. Bridges is projected for just 4.7% ownership on the FanDuel slate, it is a very easy proposition to get to double the field’s rate, and it would not be a mistake to do so given even these limited probability marks. Bridges is an underrated option for NBA DFS lineups tonight.
Bridges ranks out slightly worse on the DraftKings slate, where he costs $6,400 at either shooting guard or small forward. The five-position eligibility makes him an appealing option for flexibility, but Bridges is not landing in the optimal lineup with much frequency. He has just a 7.6% optimal lineup appearance rate on the site. At that rate, his 2.3% ownership projection is putting him as a nice leverage play, albeit one with a somewhat limited ceiling in most situations. Bridges has just a 6.61% boom score probability, but his 27.6-point median projection and 5.3 leverage score are appealing targets for a totally under-owned, mix-and-match play across a variety of combinations. It would not be a mistake to roster Bridges in 8-10% of DraftKings lineups, if not more.
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