NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

A nine-game Tuesday NBA DFS slate throws an interesting mix of plays from a wide variety of games into the mix for lineup construction. The board in Vegas is a helpful guide for locating some of the premium options for extended scoring and competitive situations which will lead to secure minutes. The prime targets early in the day are a Spurs vs Rockets battle of Texas that comes in with the highest total of the day at 233. Meanwhile, the contest between the Lakers and Nets in Brooklyn will have an extremely popular James Harden drawing the eye for the absence of his popular teammates in a game with a 227-point total and just a 2.5-point spread. The final game of the night is another premium target at 232.5, with the Timberwolves traveling to Portland to face the Trail Blazers in a game that will offer a wide range of plays at all salary tiers. Getting to a variety of players from the other games on the board helps to fill out the middle parts of a lineup between the clear stars and scrubs, there will be a wide range of frequently optimal players with solid boom score probabilities and positive leverage from a variety of price tiers.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Furkan Korkmaz: DraftKings — $4,500 — SG/SF | FanDuel –$4,400 — SG/SF

The game between the Pelicans and 76ers seems likely to yield a number of strong value options. Both teams are dealing with a long list of players who are confirmed out, and several whose status is currently in question. On the Philadelphia side of the equation, the injury report confirms that Seth Curry, Danny Green, and Shake Milton are all out once again, and Matisse Thybulle is currently listed as a game-time decision. The various missing pieces have wing Furkan Korkmaz in the starting lineup and projected for 35.4 minutes once again tonight. Korkmaz posted 27.3 FanDuel points in his 37 minutes in the team’s most recent game. He is projected for almost the same night in the median this evening. The multi-position wing has produced a 0.74 fantasy points per minute rate across all situations this season, and he has been at just 0.62 over the team’s three most recent outings. Korkmaz has produced just a 50.6% true shooting percentage and a 14.2% assist rate this season, and he has merely a 6.2% rebounding share. This is a cost play that helps fit other pieces in around the salary edges, while booking a fairly reliable median projection, but there is an appreciable ceiling probability mark on both sites that adds to the appeal.

On DraftKings, Korkmaz is the second-most frequently optimal player on the entire slate. He costs just $4,500 on the site while slotting in at both shooting guard and small forward, making him eligible in five different roster spots, enhanced flexibility that helps him land in the optimal lineup again and again. Korkmaz appears in the top lineup in 28.5% of simulated slates, but the public is not getting to him frequently enough, leaving a highly targetable 6.8 leverage score on the value option. He has a 28.1-point median projection that fits in well with the expected point production rate, but there is potentially more on the board with an appealing 39.42% boom score probability. That mark sits fifth best at any position and first among eligible small forwards, Korkmaz is a prime target that only 21.7% of the field is expected to weaponize for this slate, getting to additional shares of the Philadelphia wing is a sound approach on the DraftKings slate as things currently stand.

At just $4,400 with the same multi-position eligibility on the blue site, Korkmaz sits third overall and first among eligible small forwards with a 27.4% optimal lineup appearance rate. At the shooting guard position, he sits behind only teammate Tyrese Maxey, who lands in the optimal lineup in 32.1% of simulated FanDuel slates but is a -9.0 leverage play that 41.1% of the field is rostering. By contrast, Korkmaz has a slightly positive leverage score at 0.90, and only 26.5% raw projected popularity. There is a seven-point difference in the median projection, Maxey is at 34.1, but that is why Korkmaz costs $1,500 less than his teammate with one position in common. The 36.88% boom score probability that Korkmaz carries into the slate sits second overall on the entire slate, behind only the 38.92% that Maxey is riding. Either or both of the Philadelphia players makes for a good option on this slate, but based on a similar probability of production, cost savings, and significantly better leverage on lower raw ownership, Korkmaz seems like the more valuable of the two in the slate’s current configuration.

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Dejounte Murray: DraftKings — $10,000 — PG | FanDuel — $10,300 — PG/SG

Not even an industrywide salary over $10,000 can slow down the dynamite season from Spurs guard Dejounte Murray. The major leap that the guard has made this season is evident in his fantasy points per minute rate, which has climbed from 1.11 on 23.1% usage across all situations last season all the way to a 1.38 on 25.8% usage this year. Murray has been one of the top overall fantasy producers in the league this season, on this slate he sits behind only superstars Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, LeBron James, and Luka Doncic by per-minute fantasy scoring, and he comes in as the least expensive name on that list. Murray posted a 46.8-point night in 38 minutes in the team’s last contest, but he has been at an excellent 1.58 per-minute mark over the team’s three most recent games, with seemingly no impact based on who is in or out of the Spurs rotation. The excellent guard who has been the most frequently featured player in this space this season can be relied upon once again on both sites tonight.

Leaving the board sorted by fantasy points per minute, Murray’s optimal lineup appearance rate stands out starkly in comparison to the players above him on the list. At 25.4% on the FanDuel slate, he comes in more than seven percentage points ahead of Jokic’s 17.4% rate at the top of the group and nearly 23 percentage points ahead of Doncic’s lowly 2.5% optimal lineup rate. Murray is also easily the leader with a 35.17% boom score probability. Again, Jokic is the comparative leader, coming in with a 32.43% mark in the boom score probability category, while Doncic is on the floor at 6.32%. When looking at only the most expensive players who have the highest per-minute marks, Murray stands as the clear best option, and he ranks favorably when cast against the slate as a whole. Murray’s optimal lineup appearance rate sits fourth on the slate, trailing only Maxey, Celtics big man Al Horford, and Korkmaz on the blue site. His excellent boom score probability is third best on the site behind only the two 76ers. Murray is projected for a 52.3 median FanDuel score but only 21.6% of the field is projected to include him in lineups. That rate of popularity leaves the best pay-up option on the board under-owned at a 3.8 leverage score. Murray should be targeted from the top shelf frequently and aggressively on FanDuel.

Similar marks at a $10,000 price have Murray looking like one of the top plays on the DraftKings slate as well. He has eligibility at only point guard on the site, but he ranks favorably compared to all of the most highly salaried players and those who lead the slate by per-minute production on this site as well. Murray lands in the optimal lineup in 21.5% of simulated slates; the next-highest rate among the top group by per-minute scoring is LeBron at 12.8% optimal. By boom score probability, the leader in the group above Murray in the per-minute category is Nikola Jokic, who has an excellent 32.45% despite his $12,500 salary, but that mark pales in comparison to the 44.99% rate carried by Murray. Sorting against the entire slate, Murray lands fifth overall by optimal lineup rate and he is the second-ranked option at any position by boom score probability, falling in behind only teammate center Jakob Poeltl. The Spurs guard is projected for just 19.9% popularity on the DraftKings slate, leaving him at an intriguing 1.6 leverage score. Murray is one of the top plays on either site tonight.

Cameron Thomas: DraftKings — $3,800 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $5,400 — SG

A wildly different play from site to site, Brooklyn Nets backup guard Cameron Thomas looks like an excellent value option on DraftKings and is at best a mild mix-in play on the FanDuel slate. The reason for the discrepancy is a $1,600 price gap from site to site tonight, FanDuel appears to have anticipated his value in stepping in for the absent Kyrie Irving, with the Nets playing at home. The enigmatic anti-vaxxer has been available for the team’s four most recent games, relegating Thomas to an average of just 16.25 minutes a night in that stretch. In the game immediately prior to that, with Irving absent, Thomas played 35 minutes. He is projected for a similar night at 31 minutes tonight. Thomas averages 0.75 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season. The Nets will also be without injured superstar Kevin Durant, leaving a massive amount of work for last star standing, James Harden, who is a very popular option who has a chance at posting the night’s top scorer for a fair price at shooting guard or small forward on FanDuel, but comes at an expensive price and limited to just the point guard spot on DraftKings.

On the site where he costs $5,400 and plays just the shooting guard position, Thomas comes up in the optimal lineup in a mere 6.4% of simulated FanDuel slates. He is projected for 25 fantasy points but has just a 9.81% boom score probability that suggests a lack of true ceiling upside. The probability marks easily outpace the essentially zero ownership that is projected for Thomas on the slate, giving him a 6.3 leverage score, but that mark is deceptive given the lack of reliable trajectory toward a ceiling score and the infrequency with which Thomas appears in the optimal lineup.

The situation is flipped completely on DraftKings. Thomas costs just $3,800 and he can be rostered at either guard position. He has a 25.8-point median projection on the site and his multi-position eligibility has him landing in the optimal lineup in 27% of simulated DraftKings slates, ranking him as the fourth-most frequently optimal player on the entire slate. Thomas’ 42.69% boom score probability falls in behind only Poeltl, Murray, and their fellow Spurs starter Derrick White, but the field is not getting to him with nearly enough urgency. Thomas is projected for just 17.7% popularity on the DraftKings slate, making him the most frequently optimal player on the board with a 9.3 leverage score. Thomas should be rostered well ahead of the field unless his playing time projection is dramatically limited in later updates.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.