The Monday NBA DFS slate brings several massive game totals to the board in Vegas, providing a potential bonanza of fantasy point scoring across what will be a fun sprint to the top of standings, with all seven games tipping between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET. The highest game totals on the board come in two of the later games, with a 237.5-point total in the Spurs – Grizzlies game and a huge 239.5-point total with the Hornets facing the Bucks in a game that lands with the defending champions favored by 10.5. The spread in the other game is slightly tighter, with Memphis favored by 8.5 at home, but both games carry some risk of a blowout, which should be a minor factor when considering this group of players in pacey games that carry totals like these. Getting to a blend of players from these two targets and the premium options for either value or raw scoring potential from the other contests on the board is a strong approach to tonight’s slate.
The Timberwolves – Cavaliers, Bulls – Heat and Raptors – Nets games are all carrying totals at or below 221, while the matchup between the Kings and Thunder lands at a healthy 227.5. The final contest between the Pacers and Magic floats upward toward the bigger games of the night at 232.5, it should offer a range of plays from the upper mid-range to the value tier. With four of the games looking like better competitive situations for potential fantasy points, it should be relatively easy to determine the major player combinations in an ownership vacuum, finding the right fits that also come with the opportunity to create a unique lineup is the more difficult task. Focusing on the leverage column among the highly probable players from the go-to games while looking for raw potential for upside in the other contests should afford that opportunity to build lineups with the NBA optimizer that are not likely to be duplicated by the field.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With seven games on the slate, this article will focus on the top plays with positive leverage on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Tyler Herro: DK $6,300 — PG/SG | FD $6,100 — SG/SF
After missing a handful of games prior to the All-Star break to nurse lingering injuries, Heat wing Tyler Herro has played more than 30 minutes in back-to-back outings, posting a 31-minute return on Friday and playing 34 minutes in a 133-129 victory on Saturday. Herro posted 31.9 FanDuel points in that outing, slightly less than a point-per-minute, a rate with which he has flirted through most of the season. Across all situations this year, Herro averages 0.97 per minute; over the two games since his return he is averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute, thanks to a 44.4-point FanDuel outing in the Friday game. Herro is a quality scoring option who consumes 28% of the team’s usage. He was at 28.5% in the two return games, second on the team behind star Jimmy Butler, who has had a 32.5% usage rate – up from his average 26.3% – over that two-game stretch, with several teammates on the shelf. Herro should see plenty of opportunities to score, and he is a willing passer who has a decent 19.8% assist rate to add to his scoring acumen. Herro comes in with a 33.9-minute projection and he looks like a strong play that is not drawing the requisite attention from the field, leaving him at positive leverage that should be targeted across the industry.
On the FanDuel slate Herro comes up as the fifth-most frequently optimal player at any position, and he offers eligibility between shooting guard and small forward on the slate for just $6,100. The inexpensive mid-range upside has value when combined with positional flexibility at somewhat wanting spots in a lineup, getting to Herro should be both easy and advisable on this slate. The Heat guard has a 32.91-point median projection with a terrific 29.64% boom score probability that ranks him sixth overall and second to only Butler at the small forward position. Herro lands behind several other guard options on the board. He is playable in that role, but his value seems more secure at the three. Herro’s main appeal comes from his 6.9 leverage score despite the excellent probability metrics. He is projected for merely 21.1% popularity, leaving far too many shares on the table. At small forward, Herro compares favorably to Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, but there is clear opportunity cost in selecting him over Giannis Antetokounmpo if alternate stars are not selected in other lineup spots. Herro looks like a strong salary and position-based option for leverage with a clear path toward a slate-relevant ceiling score.
With eligibility at both guard spots instead of small forward on the DraftKings slate, the shape of this play morphs somewhat on the other side of the industry, but Herro retains his clear value and is also under-owned on this side of the industry. The wing comes in as a $6,300 option and he lands in the optimal lineup in 22.7% of Awesemo’s simulated slates for the site, ranking him second among players from any positions and demonstrating his clear value as a critical building block. The only player ahead of Herro by optimal lineup appearance rate is Brandon Goodwin, who is a $5,200 option at point guard and lands in the optimal lineup in 39% of simulated slates. Rostering Goodwin and Herro together is a strong approach to a lineup on this site, despite the former’s 38.2% ownership projection. Herro is at just a 17% mark and he has a 5.7 leverage score on the site, the top mark after Fred VanVleet, whose numbers are currently influenced by his currently questionable injury status. News on VanVleet will likely settle to the point that he is either off the board by virtue of not playing, or he falls to efficient ownership. Herro, meanwhile, would potentially gain additional positive leverage points if VanVleet is confirmed as playing, in either instance he would be the top guard on the slate. Herro has a 35.2-point DraftKings projection and a 33.76% boom score probability that climbs above VanVleet to land third overall, behind only teammate Gabe Vincent and Goodwin. Herro looks like an excellent slightly off-the-radar play on the DraftKings slate. He will be owned by 17% of the field, but the leverage and value situations are clear.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: DK $9,600 — PG | FD $9,600 — SG/PG
The Kings and Thunder will be playing in the game with the fourth-highest total on the board, with Sacramento favored by five in a 227.5-point game. With the slate setup so that games with significantly higher totals tip at the same time, the relevant players from both Miami and Oklahoma City could potentially go under-owned. The prime option on the Thunder side of the contest is star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has had a strong season delivering 1.16 fantasy points per minute across all situations this year. Gilgeous-Alexander is taking his turn at being the sole focal point for his team, with players including Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort on the shelf again on Monday night. In 93 minutes without that pair of teammates on the floor since the beginning of January, Gilgeous-Alexander has single-bounded his way over tall buildings and into a 1.52 per-minute mark that would be second to only Antetokounmpo on this slate if it were his season-long mark. Gilgeous-Alexander has a 53.7% true shooting percentage on 29.3% usage under normal circumstances, in the 2022 sample without Giddey and Dort, that mark skyrockets to 37.6% with a 65% true shooting percentage, spectacular numbers for an under-owned player.
Gilgeous-Alexander will be in just 19.1% of the public’s lineups tonight, which is efficient against his 18.2% optimal lineup rate, technically leaving him slightly negatively leveraged. Gilgeous-Alexander has upside beyond his optimal lineup rate, which can be seen in his 25.43% boom score probability and the 61.1-point (FanDuel scoring) outing that he posted in 38 minutes in the team’s most recent game. Assuming similar usage and opportunities, there is not much reason to believe the guard will fall dramatically short of that mark on this slate in what should be a high-scoring contest. Gilgeous-Alexander is a $9,600 point guard on the DraftKings slate. He falls behind Goodwin, Herro, VanVleet and Vincent at the position by optimal rate, but he is clearly the top talent among players from that list who are likely to play tonight. Getting to additional shares of Gilgeous-Alexander has upside on the slate, but he is priced and owned appropriately. He is a solid mix-in star who can be pushed somewhat beyond the field’s projected ownership in spite of the slight negative leverage.
On the blue site, Gilgeous-Alexander picks up eligibility at shooting guard, expanding his flexibility in potential lineup combinations of all types. His price is unchanged from across town, but his relative value climbs somewhat on the FanDuel slate. Gilgeous-Alexander lands in the top lineup in 20.1% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, the 12th-most frequently optimal player at any position. He ranks sixth among point guards and seventh among shooting guards, however, which makes him more of a rotating piece when there is surplus salary than someone whose use enhances the prospects of players in other positions. The Thunder guard has a 22.83% boom score probability and he will be efficiently owned by the field, landing in 23.7% of public lineups. That leaves Gilgeous-Alexander at a -3.6 leverage score, which is not the ideal situation. That popularity – probability decision can be overcome by the clear situational upside that may not be fully captured in projections, Gilgeous-Alexander has a clear path to a ceiling score, built on a foundation of touches and usage that are unrivaled among players in this game and by most options on this slate.
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Pascal Siakam: DK $8,400 — PF/C | FD $9,100 — PF
Another player in line to see additional usage and opportunities in the absence of a key teammate is Pascal Siakam, who appears to be an under-the-radar option on the FanDuel slate and a lower-cost quality mid-range play across town. Siakam is a playing time machine who averages 37.6 minutes a night, second only to teammate Fred VanVleet in the entire league. Toronto’s aggressive rotations are further evidenced by O.G. Anunoby tying for fourth in the league at 36.7 minutes per night. The Raptors seem likely to be without VanVleet once again tonight, and Anunoby has already been confirmed as out, leaving plenty of time and usage for Siakam if he wants it. Siakam fades into the background when Toronto is healthy. He averages 1.13 fantasy points per minute, which is not necessarily commensurate with his hefty salary from time to time. When teammates are absent, however, Siakam tends to shine. In 102 minutes since the start of the calendar year, Siakam has been at 35.5% usage and a 1.29 per-minute mark with those two teammates off the floor. Siakam has a 22.1% assist rate and an 11.3% rebounding percentage, giving him multi-category upside that is underappreciated. Assuming VanVleet sits, Siakam looks like an excellent option across the industry tonight.
DraftKings priced the Toronto big man for a standard situation on this slate, leaving his salary at $8,400, which would be too low if he plays without VanVleet. Siakam’s discount on the site leads to him landing in the optimal lineup in 19.3% of simulated slates, the fourth-highest mark on the board at any position and the top rate among power forwards or centers. Siakam is easily the best big man play at either of his eligible positions on DraftKings, one of the players ahead of him by the current optimal rate is VanVleet, who would hand over shares to Siakam among others if he does not play, adding to the upside potential. Siakam has a 43.1-point median projection and a 29.95% boom score probability that can be targeted despite a slightly negative leverage score of -1.0. Even if he gains popularity when or if his teammate scratches, Siakam will be a strong play with ceiling potential. As the top play on the board in the frontcourt, Siakam warrants additional ownership in any situation, as long as his teammate is off the board. If VanVleet plays, the situation becomes more tempered and Siakam is just a mid-range mix and match piece on the slate.
At a higher price against FanDuel’s looser cap, Siakam is an interesting play. He loses center eligibility on the site, but he has clear value as just a power forward option, despite the uptick to $9,100 on the site. The value comes primarily from his excellent leverage score and low raw ownership, Siakam is currently projected to land in just 11.4% of public lineups on the blue site, leaving him clear to a 5.6 leverage score that is the fourth-best at any position on the site and the second-best among power forwards behind only Isaiah Jackson of the Pistons. Siakam has a 42.01-point median projection on the site, but his boom score probability slips on the higher salary, falling to 18.96% on this site. Any concerns about the salary are offset by the near-total lack of popularity on the site. He is the fifth-most frequently optimal power forward on the slate, but every option above him on the board has multi-position eligibility, including Antetokounmpo, teammate Scottie Barnes, Kevin Love and Jarrett Allen. With several of those players occupying the same space from the same teams, it is easy to create a rotation of options through three lineup spots on the FanDuel NBA DFS slate tonight, which should prove to be a strong approach to the slate. Even if Siakam’s popularity climbs, it may not reach the appropriate levels for the potential for fantasy points production. He should be targeted while keeping a weather eye on the VanVleet news and an alternate plan in mind.
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