Thursday is frequently a fairly widespread day of rest for the NBA and for daily fantasy basketball players. With just three games on the schedule tonight, this week certainly qualifies. There are still tournaments to be played and money to be won, however, and we have numerous excellent looking NBA DFS picks on the board as usual. With just three games tonight, we’ll be looking for a couple quality pivots and touching on a piece or two of good chalk. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimized lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.
As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).
Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders
These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
LeBron James – Los Angeles Lakers
DraftKings — $10,200 – PG/SF | FanDuel — $10,500 – SF
Getting to the good chalk right out of the gate, James will be popular on both sites tonight, but the public is still dramatically underweight for how James looks in early numbers. With Anthony Davis on the shelf until mid-March at least, James is the lone star for a Lakers squad that is suddenly largely comprised of replacement-level players.
Over their time together, James does not see a major uptick in most rates when Davis is off the court. This is partly because his rates are already so strong that there is simply not enough volume in the offense for him to take more shots or create more opportunities for teammates. James is, simply put, one of the best to ever lace up sneakers on a basketball court, and there is only so much ceiling to go around. For the season, across all situations, James has a 30.7% usage rate, 25.5% rebounding rate and a 43.6% assist rate already. Still, just the potential for creating a few additional looks or getting points in myriad ways puts James firmly atop the board on both sites.
On FanDuel we can only roster him at the small forward position, but the lock-in does not impact how strong the play appears. James leads the slate with a 49.5% optimal-lineup rate and has a 51% boom-score probability despite a hefty salary. The public is well under on where James should be owned, creating a 10.3 leverage score that is also slate-leading. It seems like a no-brainer to pencil him in for a significant share of your small forward ownership today.
On DraftKings we add the absurd luxury of being able to roster LeBron at the point guard spot. He certainly mans the role for the Lakers in real life, but utilizing him in that spot for daily fantasy basketball is practically a cheat code. James pumps his optimal-lineup rate up to 50.4% on DraftKings, and his boom score climbs to 53.8% on the slightly lower salary. He is under-appreciated on this site as well, coming in with an 11.1 leverage score to top the board. It seems advisable to get as much LeBron as possible on both sites for this short slate.
Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks
DraftKings — $4,700 – C / FanDuel — $5,000 – C
Lopez is not asked to carry a significant share of the load in the Bucks offense, which leaves him ranked down the board on most daily fantasy basketball slates. Across all situations this season, Lopez has commanded just a 15.2% usage rate. He averages 10.8 real-life points and 5.1 rebounds in his 27.1 minutes per game for the season, contributing an 18.4% rebounding rate and a paltry 4.1% assist rate. We are discussing Lopez because he appears to be an option for some differentiation on such a short slate.
On DraftKings Brown is an inexpensive option as either a primary or secondary center. He lands in a fair share of optimal lineups for the money and general projection, coming in at a 23.1% optimal-lineup rate. The upside is not immense, with just a 7.6% boom-score probability, but it may not have to be a massive ceiling night for the Lopez look to pay off. He is projected for lower ownership than most options at the position and carries a strong 5.8 leverage score.
On FanDuel Lopez costs more and would be the only center we can roster. Regardless, his rates improve on Awesemo’s boom/bust tool. Lopez comes up in 25.8% of simulated FanDuel contests and has a 15.1% boom-score probability, ranking him third at a thin position. His 4.4 leverage score tells us that the public is not excited about the play, and we can easily get beyond his projected exposure.
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Bruce Brown – Brooklyn Nets
DraftKings — $4,100 – SG/SF / FanDuel — $4,700 – SG
On a larger slate, Brown would not be remotely in play given the most likely outcomes for tonight’s slate. With only three games on the schedule and several important expensive pieces to pay up for, he is well in play. Brown has posted 0.81 fantasy points per minute through the season, which is relatively on par with his 0.84 mark as a reserve last year. He gains minutes when one of the Nets stars is out, though he loses in his regular usage and rates when playing alongside the stars instead of the second unit. Tonight the list of absences should be at least as long as the name Kevin Durant, while Kyrie Irving and James Harden are expected to play.
With so few options, Brown looks to be in play simply based on anticipated run. He is a value option on DraftKings, where he will be owned only 13.8% of the time by the field. Brown has a 7.5% boom-score probability on his projection, and at a cheap salary to boot, so we are not projecting him for a gigantic ceiling game. Still, there could be enough juice to squeeze here. Brown lands in the optimal lineup 18.9% of the time in DraftKings simulations, creating a strong 5.1 leverage score. I would not go wild rostering him, but it is absolutely justifiable to be beyond the field’s ownership.
On FanDuel Brown loses some luster. He fits in only at the shooting guard spot and costs significantly more at $4,700. This lands him in the optimal lineup less than half the time by comparison, at 7.4%. He is still a positive leverage play, with a 1.0 score, but his ownership is close to level with his upside, and we do not see him breaking through for a ceiling game very often, with only a 7.4% boom-score probability. He can be rostered as a mix and match play, not much more on the blue site.
Hassan Whiteside – Sacramento Kings
The obvious point-per-minute upside with Whiteside cannot be ignored. He produces fantasy points at a 1.34-per-minute clip, putting him among a fairly elite crop of players, with whom he stands out as children sing “One of These Things is Not Like the Others.” Whiteside relies on blowing out small minute games and can easily go bust if he doesn’t produce in a big hurry. With a 23.4-minute projection, we can anticipate some production from him tonight in the absence of Richaun Holmes, but the Kings have several big men they can rotate through the position. On a short slate, there is strong temptation to roster the potential production; we just saw Whiteside put up a monster game several nights ago, after all.
Where concern grows is around the asking price and popularity, depending on your site of choice. On FanDuel Whiteside has rocketed up the charts to land at a $6,000 premium, the second-most expensive center on the slate behind Montrezl Harrell. That name should tip you off as to how thin the position is tonight. By boom-score probability, Whiteside stands out as the best option at the position, coming in at 24.5%. However, the public will be rostering him, and he is landing in our optimal lineup in only 8.0% of FanDuel simulations while coming in with a -6.9 leverage score. Whiteside is firmly in play, as the boom score potential indicates, but it might be a good idea to play the value game and look to the more optimal centers like Lopez and Kelly Olynyk.
On DraftKings Whiteside costs just $4,600 and is an entirely different play. He comes up in the optimal lineup 16.9% of the time in our simulations for the site, more than double the amount we see him on the blue site. His boom-score probability of 36.9% is a leader at the position, and he is easy to fit alongside star players. The main issue is his explosive popularity — he lands with a -13.6 leverage score. This suggests that Whiteside can be rostered, but it might be best to play him alongside one of the other upside centers who provide a large positive leverage score to help make your exposures sing a more even tune.
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