NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

Wednesday’s big 10-game slate is loaded with daily fantasy basketball firepower from all over the salary spectrum. The boom/bust tool is loaded with premium picks and value plays, and parsing through the best plays of the night is going to be a challenge. Getting to the optimal construction path via some of the available values and stars seems to be our best approach again today. With 10 games, we’ll be focused on a few of the top optimal-lineup plays on the board overall. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

James Harden — Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings — $10,900 — PG | FanDuel — $11,000 — SG

Harden is one of the top available plays on both sites tonight, with both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant out. Since joining the Nets, Harden has averaged 1.42 fantasy points per minute. In games without his two star teammates, Harden jumps to a 1.60 mark in 331 minutes. He will have an unencumbered run at scoring as much as he would like, which we will need him to do at the high price tag. Still, Harden meets every positive metric on the board on both sites tonight.

On DraftKings Harden positions as a point guard and comes up as the most optimal play on the site by a wide margin, landing a massive 44.5% optimal-lineup rate. Harden has a ridiculously high boom-score probability for a player at his salary, coming in with a 62.6% mark, and he will be under-owned despite appearing in nearly 40% of public lineups. Harden has a strong leverage score of 6.1, among the leaders on the DraftKings slate.

On FanDuel Harden slots in as the top play, with a 56.5% optimal-lineup rate. He has a boom-score probability of 64.8% despite hitting the $11,000 salary mark for the night. The median projection is doing most of the work on the way to his required ceiling score already, keeping him firmly in play regardless of the price or popularity. Harden is projected for significant ownership but still comes up with a slate-leading 12.2 leverage score. He is the best play on the slate and a fundamental piece of the available upside for lineups across the industry on Wednesday night.

Tyrese Haliburton — Sacramento Kings

DraftKings — $5,500 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $6,300 — SG

The contest between the Wizards and Kings tonight is a get-all-you-can affair with a massive 248 total on the board in Vegas. In what should be a wide-open track meet, there projects to be a smorgasbord of daily fantasy basketball scoring available. Among the standout plays in the game is guard Haliburton, who has been one of the league’s more spectacular rookies this season. Haliburton puts up 0.98 fantasy points per minute across all situations, and he is underpriced on the DraftKings slate. He has seized 29.5 minutes per game in the Kings rotation, though he sees just a 16.7% usage share across all situations. With 12.5 points per game to go with 3.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists (a 13.7% and 32.8% share, respectively), he scores in multiple ways and provides avenues to success that do not require shots.

On FanDuel Haliburton is appropriately priced for his upside. He is not out of play given the potential upside, but he appears in the optimal lineup in just 6.5% of Awesemo’s simulations, with a 22.9% boom-score probability. He is rendered less useful by the fact that the public is getting to the play at a similar rate, dropping him to a -0.9 leverage score. Taking small shares of Haliburton at or beneath the field’s projected number would be the advised approach on the blue site tonight.

The low salary on DraftKings makes Haliburton a much-stronger play across sites. Adding his point guard eligibility to the mix increases his utility and lands him in the optimal lineup in 18.9% of simulations. He has a strong 27.2% boom-score probability for the money, and he can be rostered on the site. The public will be on him at a rate that is significantly outstripping his optimal-lineup appearances. With a -9.5 leverage score, there are options that are similarly priced at the position that we can consider as pivots. Overall, Haliburton is the fourth-ranked player by optimal-lineup rate, however, so it makes sense to get to him near the field, but undercutting that mark and spreading to less negatively leveraged players could be a reasonable consideration.

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Caris LeVert — Indiana Pacers

DraftKings — $6,800 — SG / FanDuel — $4,400 — SG

Little has changed about this play, so we won’t spend much time on it before we dive into a full team breakdown in the next section. LeVert remains dramatically underpriced on FanDuel, where they are increasing his cost by $200 at a time, putting him on track to get to the appropriate range by mid-April. For now we can roster significant shares of LeVert again on the blue site given his 39.7% optimal-lineup rate, and we are safe to ignore his -8.4 leverage score. On DraftKings he is still appropriately priced and lands in just 7.8% of optimal lineups. He will be under-owned for that mark and has a healthy 6.1 leverage score, but he is nothing more than a low-volume mix-in option.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/15/2021″ team=”pistons”]

Houston Rockets

The ridiculous Rockets are prime players on the board for daily fantasy basketball purposes once again today. Despite rolling out a lineup largely bereft of proven NBA talent, someone is going to be scoring fantasy points in this game tonight, and there are several strong value plays once again. Christian Wood‘s potential return to limited action could throw a wrench into plans, but at an 18.5-minute projection, there are several interesting spots on the team. If he does not play, his teammates would take another leap beyond where they are currently projected. If he gets full run, they would be more limited.

On FanDuel several of the Rockets role players have been priced up slightly for the changed opportunity in their lineup. With that in mind, the top option on the team is Kevin Porter Jr., who should see significant minutes and be relied upon as the team’s primary playmaker. Porter has been terrific in his limited action, putting up a stunning 1.15 fantasy points per minute so far, demonstrating why he belongs in the league despite some early problems. Porter has a 35.4% optimal-lineup rate on FanDuel and nearly a 50% boom-score probability. He will be popular and has a -7.0 leverage score but seems far more like a fundamental piece than someone to skip over. Meanwhile, he ranks out similarly well on DraftKings, though several of his teammates look more favorable by comparison. Porter has a 19.6% optimal-lineup rate and a 35.2% boom-score probability, but he will be owned to a -8.3 leverage score that is on shakier ground against a lower optimal rate. Still, Porter is very much in play, and we should plan to roster him at least with the field, if not beyond.

Gaining relevance on DraftKings, we have Jae’Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and, most importantly, Sterling Brown. Brown leads the team and is among slate leaders with his 20.4% optimal-lineup rate, and he can be rostered at both shooting guard and small forward. Brown has significant utility for the money, and there is upside in his 24.1% boom-score probability. Martin and Tate are both relevant as well, with the latter landing a 13.4% optimal-lineup rate and a 19.4% boom-score probability while providing a 2.8 leverage score that gives us a bit of breathing room. Martin lands in the optimal lineup in just 10.0% of simulations and will be more popular than Tate at the same position, which appears to be a mistake by the public. For $200 more, Tate appears to be the better decision between the two, though it is close. All three players are on the board on FanDuel, though they are far less relevant.

On the blue site, Tate leads the way with a 16.7% optimal-lineup rate and a solid 39.9% boom-score probability, and he will not be dramatically over-owned at just a -1.4 leverage score. We can get to small shares of Tate, though it might not be advisable to hit the public’s 18.1% ownership projection. Martin and Brown both land in the optimal lineup in about 10.0% of simulations. They can both be rostered but are not among the preferred plays.

Some people may be inclined to look further down the board for Justin Patton, who should be slated for a large share of minutes as one of the primary frontcourt options tonight. Awesemo has him projected for 27.7 minutes, and he slots in as a $4,700 center option on FanDuel and a $4,800 option on DraftKings. He does not appear to be relevant, landing in the optimal lineup in under 2% of simulations. If Wood does not play, or it is announced that he will be very limited, we could see an expanded role and increased opportunity for Patton. At this point, however, it does not seem viable to roster the big man despite his 0.93 fantasy points per minute for a good price.

The balance of the Rockets roster is comprised of sub-replacement-level players who are not on the board, with the exception of Wood himself. If Wood somehow receives a full complement of starters minutes, which would be stunning, he could be in play, though we are not receiving much of injury discount on the price on either site. Without significant news about his minutes, Wood will not be a consideration for tonight’s slate.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.