There is a nice five-game DFS slate this evening, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS projections today and who are good leverage spots, including Paul George.
NBA DFS Projections Today & Optimizer Plays | Feb. 26
One of the top overall plays on the slate, Clippers forward Paul George looks great in his matchup with the Denver Nuggets. He is projected to be in only 5.00% of rosters on DraftKings and is coming in way under-owned. As of this writing, he looks like one of the top options DFS players can look to for leverage.
Despite being in a tough spot in the altitude against a stout Nuggets defense, George’s $8,300 price tag is just too cheap for his median projection, and considering he dropped 60.0 DraftKings points against the Kings on Friday, it’s fair to say he has massive upside. While the Clippers announced George would be on a minutes limit, he played 41 minutes against Sacramento despite not playing in double overtime. He should see his normal run as long as the game stays close.
He is more expensive on FanDuel at $9,000, but George still isn’t getting nearly enough love, as only 3.40% of lineups are expected to roster him. The Clippers 3-point underdogs in a game with a 233-point total and George is currently projected to be optimal 9.50% of the time on DraftKings and 7.40% of the time on FanDuel.
Another player flying under the radar tonight is Minnesota backup guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Priced at only $3,200 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel, Alexander-Walker is barely getting love on either site. He cannot compete with George’s raw projections, but Alexander-Walker is right there with him as far as leverage goes across both sites.
Alexander-Walker is projected to be optimal 7.90% of the time on DraftKings and 5.80% of the time on FanDuel in a good spot against a Golden State backcourt that gives up plenty of fantasy points to opposing guards. Despite decent optimality percentages for his price tag on both sites, Alexander-Walker is only projected to be only 3.20% owned on DraftKings and 1.80% owned on FanDuel. He offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites for NBA DFS at cheap price points on both sites.
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Luguentz Dort rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading in large-field tournaments. At $4,600 on DraftKings, Dort is projected to be in 60.20% of lineups and has an optimality percentage of 40.40%.
While he’s clearly a strong play with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out, Dort is projected to be significantly over owned. With other value players like Alexander-Walker and Caris LeVert going under-owned, it might be wise to avoid Dort in massive GPPs.
Situations to Monitor
With only five games tonight, there are just a couple of situations to monitor. Fred VanVleet is questionable for Toronto, and Aaron Gordon remains questionable for Denver. Draymond Green is also questionable for the Warriors after missing Friday’s game against the Rockets.
NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 5 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.