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High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Anthony Davis Shines with LeBron James Out

Tyler Schmidt



High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Anthony Davis Shines with LeBron James Out

The Association features an eight-game NBA slate with three game totals projected at 230 or more points. Most of the news is out already, but keep up with the starting lineups page if anything out of the ordinary pops up. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing Lakers big man Anthony Davis.

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NBA DFS Boom: Anthony Davis: $10,200 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel

23.5% DraftKings Boom/34.6% FanDuel Boom

There isn’t a lot to pay up for on this eight-game slate surprisingly, but Anthony Davis is the best option as LeBron James is out due to injury. Priced at $10,200 on both sites, Anthony Davis should be prioritized on FanDuel where he has the fourth-highest boom percentage on the slate. In 18 games without LeBron last season, Anthony Davis averaged a double-double with 25.4 points and 10.7 rebounds, while shooting nearly 20 field goal attempts per game. His usage rate also climbed to 29.7% compared to 25.2% when he was playing alongside LeBron. The extra production and usage make him the top pay-up option tonight.

The Lakers are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Kings who are just 4-6. That goes to show how bad it has been for the Lakers this season. Even with both teams struggling to add to the win column, at least they both play fast and are fantasy relevant. The Lakers lead the league in pace as this game total is set at 230 points, which is the third highest on the slate. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, Davis has the highest projection on FanDuel and the third highest on DraftKings by a narrow margin. Prioritize Davis on FanDuel, but getting exposure to Davis without LeBron feels like a necessity.

NBA DFS Boom: Bobby Portis: $7,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel

35.9% DraftKings Boom/57.5% FanDuel Boom

In the mid-range it is going to be nearly impossible to fade one of or both Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton for the second-straight game as they take on the Spurs on the road tonight. Portis is the better option between the two mainly due to his dual eligibility. The $5,800 salary on FanDuel sets him above the rest, as he has by far the highest boom percentage at 57.5%. Lopez has the second highest on FanDuel at 37.6%, but that is a significant gap.

DraftKings is a little different as Portis is priced up and Lopez remains a bit of a value. Lopez has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings, while Portis comes in third. Despite Portis having a very poor last game, he still is projected to be the highest-owned player on both sites. The Bucks are 10-1 and only one bucket underdogs against the Spurs. Even though this total is 219.5 points, which is the second lowest on the slate, there is so much value and usage to go around on this Bucks team without their three All-Stars in the lineup. Get exposure to both Portis and Lopez tonight.

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NBA DFS Boom: Malik Monk: $4,500 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel

32.1% DraftKings Boom/27.3% FanDuel Boom

Value is tough to come by, but Malik Monk is one of the best salary savers on the slate. Leader of the Kings second unit, Monk has had a very good start to the season off the bench. Over the last four games, Monk is averaging 18 points and 5.3 assists per game while shooting 50% from the field and 44% from behind the arc. He has made at least two 3-pointers in each game and has even shot 13 of 14 from the charity stripe. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, Monk has the third-highest value on DraftKings and sixth highest on FanDuel.

As previously mentioned, there is a lot to like about this Kings and Lakers game. Not only do both teams like to push the pace, but they are poor on defense. The Lakers have allowed 116.1 points per game, which ranks 24th in the league and one spot ahead of the Kings. Monk averaged a career-high 13.8 points per game for the Lakers last season and he seems like the type of player who would want to have a big game against his former team. He has the second-highest usage rate on the Kings and is averaging a career-high 4.4 assists per game. Monk is way too cheap for this matchup.

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NBA DFS Bust: Nikola Jokic: $11,700 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel

54.0% DraftKings Bust/42.7% FanDuel Bust

With limited value, it is going to be tough to pay all the way to the top for the most expensive player on the slate. That would be Nikola Jokic who is averaging nearly a triple-double with 21.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 9.0 assists per game. The scoring and rebounding numbers are way down compared to past seasons, while his assists are up. A big reason why has to be the addition of a healthy Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. Both players are averaging just below 30 minutes per game, but their playmaking ability has kept Jokic’s ceiling limited thus far.

Jokic is averaging 1.65 DraftKings points per minute, which is down from 1.84 last season without Murray and Porter Jr. Fading the back-to-back MVP is always scary, but trust the numbers and Stokastic’s tools. He has the highest bust percentage among the elite players on both sites. Looking at Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections, Jokic has by far the worst value on DraftKings at his $11,700 salary. In his last three games against the Celtics, Jokic is shooting 39.7% from the field. Last season the Celtics had the best defense in the league. This is a tough spot to pay this price tag for Jokic tonight.

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