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NBA Fantasy: Boom Bust Tool Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel Lineups | Today 12/2




On tap for Thursday is a five-game slate. With 10 teams competing, NBA fantasy lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel will be flush with high-level talent and value plays. The Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page will provide breaking news when starters are announced as well as a full injury report on players who might be missing in action. Below are some NBA daily fantasy options that stand out for tonight’s slate using Awesemo’s Boom/Bust Tool and NBA DFS projections.

NBA Fantasy Projections & Optimal Lineup Picks Tonight

Boom: Anfernee Simons: $4,900 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel

45.6% DraftKings Boom/29.6% FanDuel Boom

With Damian Lillard (abdomen) missing his first game of the season Tuesday, Simons got the spot start and finished with 29 DraftKings points across 35.4 minutes in the win over the Pistons. Nassir Little (ankle) also missed this game and has been ruled for Thursday along with Lillard. Simons has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in the 96 minutes he has played without these two players this season, mostly attributed to a 7.6-percentage-point increase to his assist rate. In general Simons has looked terrific under new head coach Chauncey Billups, averaging 31.2 DraftKings points per game in the six games he has logged at least 25 minutes this season.

With Lillard absent, Awesemo is projecting Simons for 33.1 minutes tonight against the Spurs. Not only does this game present the highest total on the slate (219.5 points), but the Trail Blazers have the second-largest implied team total on the board (111.75 points). San Antonio plays at the seventh-fastest pace in the league, and Simons’ prop lines on BetMGM are 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. This is already 27.5 DraftKings points before defensive stats and bonuses are credited, which is a 5.6x return at Simons’ DraftKings salary. He is a prime example of good chalk and is a free square for all formats.

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Simons was one of the top players Zach Brunner wrote up in his NBA DFS Picks, Grades & Values article today. Check out who else he pinpointed that is rating out well in the Awesemo expert grades and values.

Boom: Shia Gilgeous-Alexander: $8,100 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel

18.9% DraftKings Boom/18.2% FanDuel Boom

Gilgeous-Alexander needs to be utilized with Josh Giddey (illness) out of the lineup. With Giddey last night Gilgeous-Alexander delivered 49 DraftKings points in 37.4 minutes against the Rockets. In the 272 minutes Gilgeous-Alexander has logged with Giddey off the floor, his usage has skyrocketed 6.7 percentage points to a team-high 35.1%, resulting in 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. Coming off his strong performance last night, Gilgeous-Alexander faces the Grizzlies this evening, and this game’s total ranks second on the slate (215 points). While Memphis’ is an improved defense with Ja Morant (out, knee) sidelined, they are still a very fast group, ranking second in pace in these past two with Morant inactive. Nonetheless, Gilgeous-Alexander is far too cheap for the mammoth role he is going to garner tonight, and he has a top-10 ceiling on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Update: Gilgeous-Alexander has been unfortunately ruled out due to a concussion. Ty Jerome will enter the starting lineup and is rating as a strong value at his near minimum salaries. Tre Mann should also see a large workload and has to be considered at his low price tags. Albeit a small sample, Jerome has led the Thunder with a 30.3% usage rate with Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey off the floor. 

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Boom: Jaren Jackson Jr.: $7,100 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel

31.3% DraftKings Boom/41.2% FanDuel Boom

With Morant unavailable Tuesday, Jackson posted a season-high 45 DraftKings points in 34 minutes against the Raptors. Morant will be out for a few weeks Jackson’s usage has increased 6.1 percentage points to 30.7% with Morant off the floor. With the expanded role, Jackson has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. Hosting the Thunder tonight, the Grizzlies have the highest implied team total on the slate (111 points). While his price tags have gone up on both sites, Jackson’s immense role sans Morant is not fully reflected in his salaries, especially in this plus spot. Awesemo’s Boom Bust Tool gives Jackson a top-five boom score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Boom: Chris Paul: $8,600 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel Boom

25.7% DraftKings Boom/28% FanDuel Boom

Paul brings huge upside tonight with Devin Booker (hamstring) inactive. With Booker only available for 15.3 minutes Tuesday, Paul posted a double-double worth 50 DraftKings points in a brutal matchup against the Warriors and their league-best defense. Since the start of last season Paul has seen a 1.8-percentage-point boost to his usage, and his assist rate has leaped 7.7 percentage points with Booker off the court.

Paul contributes 1.3 DraftKings points per minute in this situation and averaged 47 DraftKings points per game in the four full games Booker missed last season. On the menu for tonight is a matchup with the Pistons, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency. In this spot the Suns have the third-highest implied team total on the slate (110.25 points), and while they are 12-point favorites, it is almost guaranteed that if Phoenix blows out Detroit, it will be a product of Paul playing well. He is a discounted stud on both sites and worth building around in both cash games and GPPs.

Paul was also one of the prime targets in NBA betting expert Adam Strangis’ NBA Picks & Parlays article today. See who else he is getting money down on in his favorite parlay today.

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Check out our NBA daily fantasy rankings for fantasy points and values that are derived directly from Alex Baker's own NBA DFS projections today. We also have Yahoo! ownership rankings, FanDuel NBA rankings and DraftKings NBA rankings for today's slate. Looking for more DFS FanDuel picks NBA and the top NBA DFS picks for today? Our NBA projections FanDuel are updated regularly, including whenever any relevant news breaks. View our FanDuel ownership, our DraftKings NBA ownership projections and our Yahoo! NBA ownership.

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