NBA DFS Boom/Bust High-Upside Picks: Nikola Jokic on an Island Up Top

Tuesday features a small five-game slate with one strong pay-up option in Nikola Jokic. Playing Jokic and filling in the pieces behind him is the optimal strategy on this small slate. Make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight, as there are a few important injuries to monitor. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

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NBA DFS Boom: Nikola Jokic: $11,800 DraftKings/$12,500 FanDuel

48.2% DraftKings Boom/26.1% FanDuel Boom

Easily the best pay-up option on the slate, Nikola Jokic is coming off a ridiculous 40-point, 27-rebound, 10-assist performance last game. In doing so, he became just the third player in NBA history to post a 40-25-10 stat line. He scored a career-high 95.8 DraftKings points while shooting 13 of 26 from the field. Having that high of a ceiling, Jokic is the main priority on this small five-game slate. Jokic has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, and it isn’t particularly close.

The Nuggets are still playing without Michael Porter Jr. tonight, while Jamal Murray is listed as questionable. There is a chance peak Jokic could emerge like last season where he played without Porter and Murray while averaging a career-high 1.84 DraftKings points per minute. That would make up for the tough matchup against the Grizzlies, who rank in the top 5 in both points allowed in the paint and defensive rating this season. Jokic is projected for 10 more points than any other player in Stokastic’s projections and remains matchup-proof.

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NBA DFS Boom: Jordan Poole: $8,100 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel

24.5% DraftKings Boom/10.9% FanDuel Boom

Jordan Poole has seen his price increase price really increase on both sites recently, but it is deserving, playing without Stephen Curry. Over the last two games without Curry, Poole has averaged 36 points and five assists per game while shooting 55.8% from the field and 45% from downtown. During that time, he has a 35.1% usage rate while averaging 47 DraftKings points per game. He is a better value on DraftKings, where he has a slightly higher boom percentage, but Poole looks great on both sites

Poole has seen his usage rate and production increase rapidly without Curry on the floor. Not only is Curry out, but so is Andrew Wiggins, while Donte DiVincenzo is listed as doubtful with an illness. Welcome to the Poole Party, as he will do whatever he can to keep the Warriors in this game against the Knicks tonight. Despite their victory last game, the Warriors are still 3-14 on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks have won seven straight games and rank inside the top 10 in defensive rating. This is a tough spot for Poole, but playing without Curry and Wiggins, his usage rate and production explode.

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NBA DFS Bust: Bradley Beal: $7,900 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel

52.0% DraftKings Bust/74.3% FanDuel Bust

It had been a while since Bradley Beal has played, but he returned last game and scored nearly 30 points against the Lakers. Unfortunately, the Wizards lost for the 10th straight game, and they continue to fall down the standings in the Eastern Conference. Despite Beal’s fallen salary, he has an optimal percentage under 4% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Beal looks completely unplayable on FanDuel, with a 65.0% bust percentage. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings, he is one of three players who has a B grade and a D value on both sites tonight.

The Wizards are 7-point road underdogs against the Suns, who have won three straight games and have a 14-3 record at home this season. Even with a respectable 110.75 implied team total, it is tough to prioritize anyone from the Wizards now that they are fully healthy. The Suns still rank 10th in defensive rating, allowing only 110.6 points per game. In a difficult matchup, it is tough to prioritize paying for Beal, who doesn’t really provide much production besides scoring the ball. Fade Beal despite his very intriguing salary on both sites.

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