When it comes to building any sort of DFS — especially NBA DFS — lineups, you’re going to need to have some sort of projection system to utilize consistently if your focus is on being a winning player. The Stokastic NBA DFS Projections are the best in the industry and are made by the No. 1 player in the world, Alex Baker. They’re great. But, how do you navigate those projections and use the data to your advantage in building winning cash game and tournament lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel? Let’s break down what the projections are, and why they’re important to becoming a profitable DFS player.
NBA DFS Strategy: DraftKings + FanDuel Projections
What are Projections?
Projections are one of the most talked about pieces of information in DFS. A player’s projection tells you his median expectation given a variety of inputs. In NBA, these inputs include stats including a player’s expected usage, assist percentage, rebounding percentage, and minutes played, among others. Using a player’s median projection can help us figure out the lineups we expect to be the highest scoring on average.
How can we use Projections to improve our lineups?
While you used to be able to win money by simply entering your highest-projected lineup in tournaments, the game has become a little bit more difficult as quality projections have become more readily available. So median projections can be an important part of a winning strategy.
In cash games, it is useful to know which lineups have the highest median expectation because your goal is typically to finish in the top 40-50 percent of the field. You can combine median projections with information in the Boom/Bust Tool in order to construct a cash game lineup that is the best combination of median projection and low “Bust percentage.”
In tournaments, median projections provide a solid foundation to your lineup. One strategy I have found useful when creating tournament lineups is to start by building the highest projected lineup possible. From there you can incorporate the Boom/Bust Tool and determine which player(s) in the highest-projected lineup have the lowest “Boom percentage.”
You can also use the Ownership Projections to determine which players in the highest projected lineup are expected to be the most popular. Once you have that information, you have an idea which players in the highest-projected lineup you most want to replace. Then you can look for other players who have similar median projections but a higher “Boom percentage” or lower ownership and use those players as replacements, or “pivots,” off the weakest players in the highest-projected lineup.