Welcome back, everybody. For Thursday night we get a five-game slate to attack, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
NBA Daily Fantasy: Awesemo Grades + Ownership | Jan. 7
Point Guard: Luka Doncic
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: C
After a few subpar performances to open the season, Doncic is starting to round into form, scoring a season-best 58.75 DraftKings against the Heat last Friday and then topping this with 71.5 DraftKings points against the Rockets on Monday. He posted his first triple-double of the season in that victory over Houston, and now the Slovenian superstar will head to Denver tonight to match up with a Nuggets defense that is the fourth-worst unit in basketball.
This game’s total currently sits at 223 points, and in all the Dallas’ contests since the NBA bubble that have carried an over/under of 220 points or higher, Doncic has provided 56.8 DraftKings points per game. As of Thursday morning, the 21-year-old’s current Vegas prop line is slating him for 30 points, nine rebounds and nine assists. When we do the math, this is already 54.75 DraftKings points before attributing defensive stats and DraftKings’ bonuses. The bottom line is that Doncic appears to be out of his slump, and it’s high unlikely that we see him this cheap again any time soon on DraftKings.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 21.1% FanDuel 28.1%
Center: Gorgui Dieng
DraftKings Grades: D, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: C, Values: B
With Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee, out) still sidelined, Dieng has found himself in a consistent role as the primary big man off the bench for Memphis. He has received at least 20 minutes of work in four straight, which has resulted in 25.8 DraftKings points per game. This is his second season with the Grizzlies, and in the 24 contests the center has cracked 20 minutes since joining the club, the 30-year-old is scoring 30.5 DraftKings points per game.
Dieng always brings more upside than his low salary suggests, and he has recorded over 30 DraftKings points in 50% of his 20-minute games as a Grizzly. That’s a pretty strong sample for a player this cheap, and Dieng will be in a prime spot tonight, going against a Cavalier defense that has surrendered the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing centers this season.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 11.8% FanDuel 2.0%
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Point Guard: Kyrie Irving
DraftKings Grades: A, Values: B
FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B
With Kevin Durant (health protocols) watching from home, Irving put on a show against the Jazz on Tuesday, recording 51.5 DraftKings points in only 29.4 minutes. Brooklyn embarrassed Utah by 34 points in this win, and the All-Star point guard wasn’t needed for a single minute of the fourth quarter. However, tonight should be a different story. The Nets will face the division-rival 76ers, and Philadelphia is only favored by 1.5 points. This is the smallest spread on the schedule tonight, and this contest also sports the second-highest game total (226 points).
Irving will absolutely get back to playing 35-40 minutes in this excellent atmosphere, and his usage should be massive. Following Tuesday’s win, the 28-year-old is now averaging a 32.2% usage rate and a tremendous 1.7 DraftKings points per minute sans Durant and Spencer Dinwiddie this season. The 76ers are the best defense in terms of efficiency so far in 2020-21, but they are on the second leg of a back-to-back set and Bradley Beal just torched them for a career-high 60 points last night (79.75 DraftKings points). I highly doubt they will be able to contain Irving, and his immense ceiling makes him a difficult fade.
Update: Out of nowhere, Irving has been ruled out for personal reasons. After deploying a brand new starting five last game, it’s hard to guess who will start for Brooklyn tonight, but the in the lone game this season they played without Durant, Irving and Dinwiddie, Nets’ Head Coach Steve Nash ran out a lineup of: Caris LeVert, Joes Harris, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Taurean Price and Deandre Jordan. Instantly, the main beneficiary here is LeVert, starter or not. He went off for 60.5 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies in that one game sans Durant, Irving and Dinwiddie and overall, when these three have been off the floor this season, the 26-year-old handles an absurd 38.5% usage rate and scores 1.45 DraftKings PPM. He is a must play in all formats. As for the rest of the Nets, we have to watch for their starting five to address the situation. Luawau-Cabarrot and Bruce Brown look like the best options, and they could see huge upgrades if they entered the first unit. Thankfully, this is the first game of the night to tip off, so we should know Brooklyn’s lineup in advance.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 24.5% FanDuel 32.5%
Power Forward: Juancho Hernangomez
DraftKings Grades: D, Values: D
FanDuel Grades: D, Values: C
Hernangomez has started at power forward for the Timberwolves the last two games and should continue to start tonight against the Trail Blazers. He struggled in his first start, scoring only 15.25 DraftKings against the Nuggets, but then erupted for 46.5 DraftKings points Tuesday night. The 25-year-old amassed a season-high 34 minutes in this tilt, and he helped the struggling Wolves keep this game competitive (123-116) after four straight blowout losses.
Hernangomez has flashed similar upside in the past, contributing 33.2 DraftKings points per game in his previous six with a minimum of 30 minutes, and this matchup against the Blazers is projected for the most points of the night (233 point over/under). While he doesn’t bring the safest floor, gambling on Hernangomez makes sense given how thin the power forward position is for this five-game slate.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 9.1% FanDuel 13.8%
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