Monday delivers a seven-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Monday, Dec. 12.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 12
High-End Tier
For tonight’s seven-game slate, we need to be building around Luka Doncic. After sitting out Saturday, the superstar will return tonight and is in a gorgeous spot, at home and facing the Thunder. This season, Oklahoma City ranks first in place, compared to the Mavs, who rank dead last. Playing way up in pace is extremely optimal for Doncic, as we saw back in October, when he lit this Thunder squad up for a triple-double worth 71 DraftKings points. Tonight’s rematch boasts the second highest total on the slate (228.5 points) and Dallas’ implied team total is the largest on the board (119 points), both of which are new season highs for the Mavericks. This season, Doncic is supplying 1.6 DraftKings PPM with a mammoth 38.4% usage rate and has notably been 5.3 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road. Furthermore, Doncic is generating 70 DraftKings PPG for the six occasions he has competed in a total of 220 points or higher this season, including two efforts over 80 DraftKings points. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Doncic’s ceiling is the highest on the slate by over 10 fantasy points and while he is slated for roughly 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the Slovenian is still rating as a positive leverage target for both sites. In other words, Doncic isn’t getting the attention he deserves for his upside.
Kristaps Porzingis is another appealing spend, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is forecasting for him only around 10% ownership. The bigman is coming off an impressive 61.25 DraftKings points showing vs. the Clippers and has now recorded over 50 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts. Bradley Beal (hamstring) will miss his fourth straight game tonight and with the guard off the floor this season, Porzingis’ usage rises 2.8 percentage points to a team-high 31.3% and he provides 1.4 DraftKings PPM, which is a huge upgrade from the 1.1 DraftKings PPM he is averaging for the season. Tonight, Porzingis is going against the Nets on his home floor, in a contest that carries a total of 227 points. The ex-Knick is contributing 5.5 more DraftKings PPG at home compared to when on the road this season and is amassing 48 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 225 points (nine games).
Dropping down a little, taking a chance on Tyler Herro makes sense for GPPs tonight, with Stokastic slating him for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Herro is in excellent form, producing 44.7 DraftKings PPG across his last seven starts and the Heat are playing way up in pace against the Pacers, who rank fifth in pace, compared to Miami, who ranks 23rd. Herro went off for 46.25 DraftKings points against Indiana last month and this game’s total tied for the second highest on the slate (228.5 points). This is the largest total Herro has competed in this season and for the last four times he has found himself in a total of at least 220 points, Herro is generating 46 DraftKings PPG.
Value Tier
While ancitpcated to be very chalky on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Deni Avdija remains vastly underpriced for life without Beal and is good chalk we should be eating. In these past three with Beal sidelined, Avdija has led the Wizards with 39.1 minutes per game, which has translated into 35.3 DraftKings PPG for the forward. Avdija scores 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Beal off the floor this season and should effortlessly exceeded five-times value based off sheer volume.
As for some lower owned value plays to consider, rolling the dice on Tim Hardaway Jr. in this fast-paced matchup with the Thunder has appeal. The wing is coming off back-to-back quiet games under 20 DraftKings points, but one was in a brutal matchup against the Bucks, who rank second in defensive efficiency, while the other was due to the Mavs’ losing by 29 points, severely limiting his playing time. Prior to this two-game skid, Hardaway Jr. was flourishing, scoring 38.4 DraftKings PPG across his previous five, including three performances over 40 DraftKings points. With the Mavs carrying their highest implied team total of the season tonight (119 points), Hardaway Jr. brings much better upside than his salaries suggest and shouldn’t be a popular name in GPPs given his ugly game log.
Lastly, with Al Horford (personal) out for the Celtics, Blake Griffin is a very appealing flier for GPPs. As the Celtics’ starting center with Horford missing the past three, Griffin has collected 25.5 DraftKings PPG. In the one contest of this stretch that was decided by single-digit points, the bigman saw a season-high 32.2 minutes, which is the type playing time upside Griffin has tonight vs. the Clippers, with this tilt presenting a tight spread of 3.5-points. Griffin is scoring 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and this is a revenge situation for him, with the Clippers’ being the first team he played for in the NBA. Griffin has a ceiling near 30 fantasy points tonight and is an outstanding sleeper for GPPs, with Stokastic projecting him to come with essentially no ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Situations to Monitor
Ja Morant (thigh) is questionable tonight and if the star sits, Tyus Jones would enter must-play status against a Hawks’ club that ranks seventh in pace. In the four contests Morant has missed this season, Jones has started and thrived with 40.4 DraftKings PPG. Jaren Jackson Jr. would also be a terrific target if Morant was inactive. Jackson Jr. has yet to play a game without Morant this season, but with the guard off the court, Jackson Jr.’s usage has skyrocketed 10.2 percentage points to a team-high 35.4%, helping him score 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Furthermore, Steven Adams (ankle) is questionable and if he was to join Morant on the sidelines, Jackson Jr. would see more time at center, boosting his rebounding numbers on top of the expanded usage sans Morant.
The Hawks present a lengthy injury report Monday with Dejounte Murray (ankle), John Collins (ankle) and Bogdan Bogdanovic (rest) out and Trae Young (back) and Clint Capela (Achilles) questionable. If Young was to be ruled out, Jarrett Culver would likely join the first unit and be an appealing punt, along with AJ Griffin, who would be forced to play huge minutes. This season, Culver is averaging 28.6 DraftKings PPG for the two times he has logged over 25 minutes. As for Griffin, he leads the Hawks in usage (32.2%) and DraftKings PPM (1.5) with Young, Murray and Bogdanovic off the floor this season, albeit in a limited sample of 31 minutes. As for Capela, if he sits, Onyeka Okongqu would get the start at center and be an elite punt that would see 30+ minutes. This season, the bigman is scoring 0.94 DraftKings PPM. Now, if Young is active, he will be an intriguing spend that could get overlooked given his questionable tag. With Murray and Bogdanovic off the floor this season, Young has seen an eye popping 43.4% usage rate and he has produced 1.5 DraftKings PPM.
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