NBA DFS Projections Today: Big Jaden Ivey Night? (March 7)

Several key players have already been ruled out for tonight’s eight-game slate, opening up some very strong value plays. However, things can change in a hurry, so be sure to pay attention to the news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to listen in on smart analysis of how breaking news affects the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help you construct DFS lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | March 7

High-End Tier

Luka Doncic ($12,000) has the highest projection on the slate in a nice matchup with a Jazz team ranked 23rd in defensive rating and 12th in pace of play. Doncic is projected for 19% ownership with a 29% chance of booming and a 19% chance of optimality, according to the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool.

Anthony Davis ($10,800) remains a solid point-per-dollar play against the Grizzlies with LeBron James and possibly D’Angelo Russell sidelined. Davis is projected for 27% ownership with a 33% chance of booming and a 25% chance of optimality.

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Mid-Tier

Tyus Jones ($4,900) remains much too cheap with Ja Morant out indefinitely, especially against a Lakers team that has a middling defensive rating and plays at the second-fastest pace in the league. Jones is projected for 51% ownership with a 63% chance of booming and a 47% chance of optimality.

Bobby Portis ($6,300) is a great point-per-dollar play against the Magic with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday out. Portis is projected for 29% ownership with a 42% chance of booming and a 33% chance of optimality.

Khris Middleton ($6,400) would be an absolute smash play if we could count on 30 minutes or more. But even with a projection of 28 minutes, he remains a great point-per-dollar play. Middleton is projected for 33% ownership with a 33% chance of booming and a 30% chance of optimality.

Mitchell Robinson ($4,900) is back and playing big minutes for the Knicks. In a matchup with a Hornets team ranked fourth in pace and 21st in defensive rating, Robinson looks like a solid play. He is projected for 15% ownership with a 29% chance of booming and a 15% chance of optimality.

Jaden Ivey ($5,800) is a great point-per-dollar play for a Pistons team that won’t have Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, Alec Burks or Cade Cunningham. Ivey is projected for 19% ownership with a 33% chance of booming and a 22% chance of optimality. Marvin Bagley III ($5,500) and James Wiseman ($5,300) remain great point-per-dollar options as well.

Houston’s Tari Eason ($4,800) is projected for just 6% ownership tonight against the Nets despite a string of very strong fantasy performances recently. He owns a 21% chance of booming and a 15% chance of optimality.

Value Tier

Cory Joseph ($3,100) currently has the top value score on the entire slate. Joseph is projected for 31% ownership with a 61% chance of booming and a 41% chance of optimality. R.J. Hampton ($3,000) and Isaiah Livers ($3,400) also have solid value scores for the depleted Pistons.

Jevon Carter ($3,700) will likely start and play big minutes for the Bucks. Carter is projected for 39% ownership with a 38% chance of booming and a 16% chance of optimality.

Dillon Brooks ($4,200) scores nearly six more fantasy points per 36 minutes with Morant off the floor, which makes him a great play at this price. He is projected for 15% ownership with a 31% chance of booming and a 24% chance of optimality.

Oklahoma City’s Jaylin Williams ($3,600) and Aaron Wiggins ($3,400) are solid point-per-dollar options with Jalen Williams ruled out. They get a matchup with a Warriors team that plays at the fastest pace in the league.

Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.