Monday delivers an eight-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Nov. 21.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
With an ownership projection around 20% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is anticipated to be the most rostered stud for this eight-game slate. Going against a Knicks’ club that ranks 22nd in defensive and seventh in pace, this is a beautiful matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander and is without a doubt the best spot among the studs Monday, making him a player we should be going overweight on. This contest’s total ranks second on the slate (230.5) and the Thunder boast the fourth largest implied team total on the board on their home floor (116.25 points). Gilgeous-Alexander ranks inside the top-10 in usage this season (31.5%) and has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points in five of his last seven starts, including a 63.25 DraftKings point eruption against the same Knicks’ squad he will face tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander brings similar upside tonight and despite his popularity, the blossoming star is rating positively as a leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.
A lower owned lucrative option that is a great gamble for GPPs tonight is Bam Adeabyo. The Heat are extremely beat up right now, mostly notably with Jimmy Butler (knee) out and Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable. With Butler off the floor this season, Adebayo’s has scored 1.2 DraftKings PPM behind a 28% usage rate, with obviously room for even a larger role if Herro is unable to return as well. Plus, Adebayo is playing way up in pace against a Wolves’ team that ranks fourth in pace, compared to the Heat, who rank 25th. The center has 50 fantasy point upside in this spot and is only expected to be around 10% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections.
Update: Adebayo has been added to the Heat injury report and is questionable, while Herro has been ruled out. If Adebayo is active without limitations, he will be an excellent spend that surely won’t be a common name in GPPs, given the injury concerns. With Butler and Herro off the court this season, Adebayo has seen a 29.6% usage rate and contributed 1.3 DraftKings PPM, both of which are team highs for this situation.
With Stokastic slating Myles Turner to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the center also needs to be included in your player pool. Handling a career usage rate (22%), Turner is generating 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season and has flashed some huge upside, scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his first 10 starts of the season. For tonight, Turner will be at home and facing an Orlando defense that ranks 24th in efficiency. The Pacers’ implied team total ranks third on the slate (116.5 points) and this tilt’s total is the fourth largest on the board (226.5 points). Turner has been dramatically a better a fantasy asset on his home floor throughout his career and for the last five occasions he has competed at home in total of at least 225 points, Turner is amassing 42.1 DraftKings PPG.
In a prime matchup vs. the Knicks, Josh Giddey is expected to be the most owned player on the slate, according to Stokastic’s projections. However, unlike Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey is rating as a poor leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is worth fading with the heavy expected ownership. While Giddey went off for a season-best 58.5 DraftKings points against this same New York defense last week, this is only one of the four times he has topped 40 DraftKings points this season. Notably, Giddey has recorded less than 30 DraftKings points in seven of his 13 starts.
Jarrett Allen is another chalky value play that warrants a fade, with the center expected to be a top-five most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. While the Cavs get a pace upgrade tonight against the Hawks, Atlanta is a strong defense, ranking eighth in efficiency and they have also yielded the third least rebounds this season, which isn’t great news for a lower usage player like Allen, who relies on rebounding for a large part of his fantasy production. Allen has only surpassed 40 DraftKings points and in four of his 14 starts this season and just doesn’t bring a high enough ceiling to chase with the heavy expected ownership.
On the other hand, Jordan Poole is a chalky play worth embracing. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green will be rested tonight, while Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney are questionable. Poole will start in this situation and he has flourished with a starting role this season, averaging 44.4 DraftKings points in 34.5 minutes per game for the three occasions he has been a member of the first unit. Overall, with Curry, Thompson and Green off the floor over the last two seasons, Poole produces 1.1 DraftKings PPM with a team-high 30.5% usage rate.
Jonathan Kuminga is also a terrific value from the depleted Warriors, that simply isn’t expected to see the attention he deserves. Starter or not, Kuminga should see close to 30 minutes tonight, with the potential for more if Wiggins is ruled out. In the lone game that Curry, Thompson and Green have missed collectively this season, Kuminga posted 31 DraftKings points in 37.5 minutes against the same Pelicans’ team he is matching up with tonight. Overall, in the 627 minutes Kuminga has played with Curry, Thompson and Green off the floor, the forward is collecting one DraftKings PPM, with a 24.7% usage rate. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Kuminga sports the highest leverage score on the slate by a huge margin.
Situations to Monitor
Wendell Carter Jr. (foot) is questionable tonight and is likely to sit, after missing morning shoot-around, which would open the door for Mo Bamba to start and be an appealing option against an Indiana squad that ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and ninth in pace. With Carter Jr. out Saturday against this same Pacers’ team, Bamba started in his place and delivered 40.25 DraftKings points across 33.1 minutes. Cole Anthony (oblique) and Paolo Banchero (ankle) also remain out and in the 137 minutes Bamba has played without these three starters this season, the center has provided 1.2 DraftKings PPM with a 23.3% usage rate, which is a 3.5 percentage point upgrade form his season average.
DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Free NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks | Jalen Green
NBA DFS Strategy Show: Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks & Predictions
FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Free NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks | Keldon Johnson
NBA DFS Deeper Dive & Live Before Lock: DraftKings & FanDuel NBA Lineups
NBA DFS Projections for No House Advantage
Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings
NBA Player Prop Betting Stat Projections Today
NBA DFS Projections