The NBA gods have blessed us with a nice three-game DFS slate this evening, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Jarrett Allen, to help you build optimal NBA DFS lineups.
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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 29
One of the top overall plays on the slate, Cavs center Jarrett Allen looks great in his matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers. Projected to be in only 17.50% of rosters on DraftKings, Allen is coming in way under-owned. As of this writing, he looks like one of the top options DFS players can look to for leverage.
In a tough spot on paper matched up against a Clippers team that ranks 3rd in the NBA against opposing centers. However, Allen is just too cheap for his median projection, and considering he dropped 49 DraftKings points on this same Clippers team when they met in November, it’s fair to say the matchup isn’t overly concerning. With the Clippers resting both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the matchup only becomes easier, and at $6,500 on DraftKings, Allen stands out as one of the top value plays on the slate.
While he is more expensive on FanDuel at $7,300, Allen still isn’t getting nearly enough love, as only 16.30% of lineups are expected to roster him. With Cleveland a 10-point favorite in a game with a 214-point total, Allen stands out as a building-block type play, especially in tournaments. He is currently projected to be optimal 15.30% of the time on DraftKings and 17.10% of the time on FanDuel, offering strong leverage across both sites.
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Another player flying under the radar tonight is Indiana backup center Jalen Smith. Priced at only $3,000 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel, Smith is barely getting love on either site. While he’s certainly in a different league than Allen as far as expected production goes, Smith is right there with the Cavs big man as far as leverage goes across both sites.
In a good spot against a Memphis front-court that is missing Steven Adams, Smith is projected to be optimal 13.40% of the time on DraftKings and 6.30% of the time on FanDuel. Despite his relatively high optimality percentages, NBA DFS players are forgetting about the former University of Maryland star on both sites, as he is projected to be only 10.20% owned on DraftKings and 4.60% owned on FanDuel. While Smith is certainly much more solid than spectacular, he offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites for NBA DFS, and at cheap price points on both sites, there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments tonight.
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On the other side, Brandon Clarke rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At $5,300 on DraftKings, Clarke is projected to find himself in 48.20% of lineups with an optimality percentage of 43.00%%.
Clarke’s affordable price and strong recent production will make him a popular value tonight, but with other value players like Allen and Smith going under-owned, it might be wise to avoid him in large-field tournaments.
Situations to Monitor
With only three games tonight there are only a couple of situations to monitor. Donovan Mitchell remains questionable for Cleveland while Desmond Bane holds that same questionable designation for the Grizzlies.
NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 5 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.
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