NBA DFS Projections Today: Big Luka Doncic Night? (Feb. 28)

Four hours before the slate begins we already have some solid value for tonight’s 10-game slate — and some studs to pay up for, like Luka Doncic. But things can change in a hurry, so be sure to pay attention to the news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to listen in on smart analysis of how breaking news affects the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help you construct DFS lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Feb. 28

High-End Tier

Luka Doncic ($12,000) has the highest projection on the slate against a Pacers team that has a below-average defensive rating and plays at an above-average pace. Doncic is projected for just 17% ownership with a 33% chance of booming and 19% chance of optimality, according to the Boom/Bust Tool.

Damian Lillard ($11,500) gets a nice matchup with a Warriors team that is average defensively and plays at the fastest pace in the league. Lillard is projected for 21% ownership with a 35% chance of booming and 20% chance of optimality.

Anthony Davis ($10,300) should have heavy usage against the Grizzlies with LeBron James and D’Angelo Russell sidelined. Davis is projected for 21% ownership with a 33% chance of booming and 16% chance of being optimal.

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Mid-Tier

Bradley Beal ($7,600) is a great point-per-dollar play in a nice matchup with the fast-paced Hawks, especially with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined. Beal is projected for 30% ownership with a 41% chance of booming and a 27% chance of optimality.

Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,900) should see plenty of minutes and usage with both Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson ruled out tonight against the Spurs. Horton-Tucker is projected for 38% ownership with a 53% chance of booming and a 41% chance of optimality.

Jakob Poeltl ($6,100) has seen a nice bump in minutes since getting traded to the Raptors. He has played between 27 and 36 minutes in each of the past four games. Poeltl is projected for 4% ownership tonight against the Bulls and has a 19% chance of booming and an 8% chance of optimality.

Value Tier

Kris Dunn ($3,600) is the top point-per-dollar play on the entire slate. Dunn is projected for 67% ownership with a 61% chance of booming and a 46% chance of optimality.

Jarred Vanderbilt ($4,100) and Malik Beasley ($4,500), both now on the Los Angeles Lakers, will benefit from the absence of James and Russell and are among the best value plays on the slate. Vanderbilt is projected for 40% ownership with a 51% chance of booming and a 38% chance of optimality, while Beasley is projected for 31% ownership with a 36% chance of booming and a 23% chance of optimality.

Washington’s Kendrick Nunn ($3,100) currently has the best leverage score on the slate. Nunn is projected for 1% ownership with a 16% chance of booming and an 8% chance of being optimal.

Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.