Tuesday presents a five-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players, including Seth Curry, that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Nov. 15.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
With Desmond Bane (toe) out tonight, Stokastic is projecting Ja Morant to be the most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While there is logic to this, fading Morant with the heavy ownership makes the most sense for this short five-game slate. First off, the point guard disappointed in his first start of the season without Bane, scoring only 48.25 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz last month. Also, Jaren Jackson Jr. (questionable, foot) intends to make his season debut Tuesday and the Grizzlies are on the road, going against a Pelicans’ defense that ranks 12th in efficiency. With Jackson Jr. on the floor and Bane off over the last two seasons, Morant has seen a 32.9% usage rate, which is a significant drop from 38.6% usage rate he is averaging this season. Furthermore, Morant has been 3.3 DraftKings PPG worse on the road compared to when on his home floor over the last two seasons.
While slightly more expensive, opting to Kevin Durant, who has a higher ceiling and is projected for lower ownership than Morant in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, is a wise move for GPPs. Ben Simmons (knee) is questionable, but Kyrie Irving (suspended) remains unavailable. With the guard off the court this season, Durant is generating 1.5 DraftKings PPM, mostly thanks to his assist rate rising 4.6 percentage points to a team-high 30.3%. Durant has scored at least 56 DraftKings points in three of his six starts without Irving this season and he is in a plus spot, facing the Kings, who ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and 13th in pace. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Durant owns a top-10 leverage score on the slate, while Morant possesses a bottom-five leverage score.
Competing against Durant, Domantas Sabonis is forecasted to be only rostered by around 15% of the field on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him an outstanding target. After a relatively quiet start to the season, Sabonis has been on a roll, contributing 50.5 DraftKings PPG across his past six starts. During this run, Sabonis’ usage has been at 24.7%, which is a notable upgrade from the 20.8% usage rate he received in his six starts of the season. This matchup with the Nets carries a total of 226.5 points and in totals of at least 225 points over the last two seasons, Sabonis has responded 46 DraftKings PPG (27 games).
In Stokastic’s projections, Jordan Clarkson ranks second only to Morant in projected ownership for tonight. The reason for this is the Jazz present the highest implied team total on the slate (118.25 points), going against a Knicks’ squad that ranks third in pace and 22nd in defensive efficiency. While this is a great spot, ignoring Clarkson with the heavy ownership is an easy call. In his last two starts, the guard’s minutes have been way at 26 minutes per game, which has translated into a very underwhelming 22.6 DraftKings PPG. Clarkson has primarily lost playing time to Malik Beasley, who is a much better value to attack from Utah tonight, at cheaper price points and with a much lower ownership projection than Clarkson. Beasley has logged a minimum of 29 minutes in three straight games, resulting in 31.7 DraftKings PPG during this time. The guard is amassing 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and if the trend continues of him playing a huge role off the bench, Beasley will have zero issues out producing his salaries in this fast paced matchup with the Knicks.
In similar fashion, we need to be pivoting off Joe Harris to Seth Curry tonight. Harris is guaranteed to see big minutes, but the results just haven’t been there this season and he is a poor target for GPPs, with him skated to be a top-10 most rostered player on the slate. With a very low 12.8% usage rate this season, Harris is averaging a modest 0.7 DraftKings PPM and has only surpassed 20 DraftKings points in three of his 12 starts. Conversely, Seth Curry is finally starting to look like his old self and is forecasted for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making him one of the best ways to gain leverage for this short slate. Before being rested on Sunday, Seth Curry had provided 33.3 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes per game off the bench in his previous two contests. For the season, the sharpshooter is collecting 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a 19.1% usage rate.
Situations to Monitor
Zion Williamson (questionable, ankle) is the most important name to monitor tonight. The forward leads the Pelicans with a 29.5% usage rate this season and his absence would open many intriguing plays. First off, Larry Nance Jr. would be in line for around 30 minutes of work, starter or not, and be a strong value at his salaries. This season, the forward is providing one DraftKings PPM and 30.8 DraftKings PPG for the five occasions he has seen a minimum of 25 minutes. Brandon Ingram would also become one of the better high-end investments. In the 108 minutes the forward has played with Williamson off the court, Ingram’s usage has increased 4.1 percentage points to a team-best 33.1% and he has supplied 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Lastly, Jonas Valanciunas would be a worthwhile risk for GPPs, where he is never a popular name. In the 153 minutes Valanciunas has played with Williamson off the floor this season, the big man is leading the Pelicans with 1.4 DraftKings points, thanks to his usage jumping 3.3 percentage points to 27%.
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