NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Tyler Herro Brings Backcourt Value

On the menu for Tuesday is a three-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Dec. 6.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

Of the high-end choices for this three-game slate, Nikola Jokic is standing out as the best value in Stokastic’s projections. The Nuggets remain without Michael Porter Jr. (heel) and are hosting a Mavs’ club that is on the second night of a back-to-back. In the 371 minutes Jokic has played with Porter Jr. off the court this season, his usage and rebound rates have increased 1.2 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.7 DraftKings PPM. Jokic has been nearly four DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road this season and is amassing 60 DraftKings PPG for the three occasions he has played at home without Porter Jr. this year.

A strategy that shouldn’t be that common tonight is rostering Jokic and Anthony Davis in the same lineup. After an underwhelming start to the season, the Lakers’ bigman has been unstoppable, generating 66.5 DraftKings PPG across his last 10 starts, including four efforts north of 70 DraftKings points. Los Angeles has been smart and has fed Davis a usage rate of over 30% in three consecutive games, which has translated into three straight victories for the club. Tonight, they should continue to feature the superstar in a marquee matchup with the Cavs. Cleveland is the No.1 defense in terms of efficiency this season, but as we saw this past Friday, when Davis lit up a Bucks’ defense that ranks second in efficiency for 71 DraftKings points, he is matchup proof right now in this incredible form. Davis brings similar upside tonight and Stokastic is projecting him for less than 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is very enticing for a three-game slate.

Dropping down a little bit, Tyler Herro is one of the best backcourt values on the slate and needs to be one of your core plays tonight. The Kentucky product finished with a season-best 50.75 DraftKings points last night vs. the Grizzlies and has now recorded at least 43 DraftKings points in four starts in a row. Jimmy Butler will be rested tonight and with him off the court this season, Herro’s usage has risen 2.1 percentage points to 27.6% and he has provided 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Facing a Pistons’ defense that ranks second to last in efficiency tonight, Herro’s ceiling is near 45 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

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Value Tier

Jarrett Allen (questionable, back) went through shootaround this morning and is expected to make his return tonight. However, with Stokastic forecasting the center to be a top-eight most rostered on both DraftKings and FanDuel, fading Allen is the right call. The bigman could be limited in his return from a five-game absence and even if he isn’t, Allen’s potential ceiling just isn’t compelling enough to peruse with the heavy ownership. In 17 starts this season, the 24-year-old has only eclipsed 40 DraftKings points five times.

Tim Hardaway Jr. on the other hand is good chalk we should be eating tonight, especially on DraftKings, where the wing only costs $4.4K and is rating as the No.1 value on the slate in Stokastic’s projections. Hardaway Jr. was promoted to the Mavs’ starting five games ago and after putting up a dud in his first start of this span, the ex-Knick has been excellent with 37.1 DraftKings points in 30.5 minutes per game across his last four with a 24.8% usage rate. Hardaway Jr. is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM and 32.4 DraftKings PPG for the nine instances he has logged a minimum of 25 minutes this season, and this is a great spot for him, going against a Nuggets’ defense that ranks 26th in efficiency.

Hovering around only 20% projected ownership, Dennis Schroder is also an appealing value play tonight. The veteran was promoted to the Lakers’ first unit Sunday and finished with 21.5 DraftKings points across 30 minutes vs. the Wizards. Schroder ranked second only to Davis in plus/minus in the 11-point win and should remain a starter this evening. This obviously isn’t the best spot for him with the Cavs ranking first in defensive efficiency, but Schroder is simply too cheap for his new starting gig and is one of the better punts this difficult slate has to offer. For the last 10 occasions Schroder has logged at least 25 minutes, he is contributing 26.2 DraftKings PPG.

Lastly, Haywood Highsmith is an interesting flier for GPPs, with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As noted above, Butler will be inactive tonight and when the veteran recently missed seven games in a row, Highsmith saw a prominent role for the Heat, scoring 20.5 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game. The wing flashed solid upside during this stretch, topping 30 DraftKings points twice, and certainly has the potential to beat his low-price tag in this prime matchup with the Pistons tonight, who rank second to last in defensive efficiency.


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