This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to get your days started the right way by checking out the Awesemo NBA Strategy Show every morning for the best daily fantasy basketball advice and strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Adam and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings & FanDuel Picks | February 25
Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) at Philadelphia 76ers (228)
Dallas Mavericks (111.75)
UPDATE: Kristaps Porzingis is not doubtful to play, which would make Maxi Kleber a fine option on FanDuel at $3,900. Dwight Powell looks to be pulling around 20 percent ownership on DraftKings right now but is still a huge risk even at minimum salary. It stands to reason, however, that Rick Carlisle is going to want a big out there at all times against Embiid, which could result in much more run than last game for Powell, or big minutes off the bench for Willie Cauley-Stein.
Porzingis and Kleber are questionable for tonight’s road tilt in Philadelphia. If Porzingis plays, the Mavericks become a very unappealing team against a top-five 76ers defense. Even if Porzingis is out, it’s going to be hard to find a ton of enthusiasm for Dallas. Carlisle’s rotations have been notoriously difficult to predict, as we just saw with Powell logging only 11 minutes as a starter last time out. James Johnson would at least be somewhat viable if he gets another spot start, seeing that he played 28 minutes on Tuesday and is almost minimum salary on DraftKings. He was a healthy scratch for the past two weeks, though, so both Kleber and Porzingis would need to be sidelined in order to even consider the veteran journeyman.
Luka Doncic is always a strong tournament option no matter who he’s facing. He’s averaging 1.57 DraftKings points per minute (DraftKings Points Per Minute) on 36.3 percent usage, 42.7 percent assists and 14.4 percent rebounding with Porzingis off the floor this season. His per-minute production actually slightly increases alongside Porzingis (1.61), but he sees a decline in usage, assist rate and rebound rate in the process. Doncic is far from a priority but always a great way to pay up in order to be contrarian. And while Ben Simmons can put the clamps on opposing ball-dominant guards, the Sixers have coughed up some monster games to opposing no. 1’s in recent weeks. The biggest issue with getting to Doncic is the other players in his price range are all in way more favorable matchups on Thursday.
The rest of this Mavericks team is a nightly roll of the dice, from Josh Richardson to Tim Hardaway Jr., Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith. As filler pieces in tournaments they’re fine, but I want nothing to do with any of them if Porzingis is healthy enough to play.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Philadelphia 76ers (116.25)
Outside of Joel Embiid and trace amounts of Shake Milton (DraftKings) and Tobias Harris (FanDuel), the Sixers are wholly unappealing tonight. Embiid, however, should absolutely decimate the Mavericks frontcourt no matter who Carlisle decides to throw at him. Now, it’s worth noting that Nick Nurse’s Raptors did a fantastic job of containing Embiid in their last two games, double-teaming him as soon as he touched the ball and forcing bad looks and even a little frustration. I’m not sure the Mavericks have the personnel to make the work, but if they do, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Harris or even Simmons benefit from this.
When teams sell out to stop Embiid it opens up the rest of the offense in a big way. I still think Embiid is the top target for Philadelphia, and his elite 1.61 DraftKings points per minute wouldn’t suggest otherwise, but getting some minimal exposure to Simmons or Harris in tournaments isn’t the craziest idea. Only four teams are allowing a higher field-goal percentage at the rim than Dallas this season, which not only helps Embiid but also Simmons. It’s just going to be difficult to pay a premium for Simmons on a slate with plenty of solid top-tier options — especially when Embiid has inexplicably fallen below $10,000 on DraftKings. Ultimately, Embiid is pulling more than 20 percent less ownership than Nikola Jokic tonight, which puts him firmly in play for GPPs.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid (GPP)
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid (GPP)
Orlando Magic (+8.5) at Brooklyn Nets (228)
Orlando Magic (109.75)
One of the reasons Embiid won’t be garnering much ownership tonight is Nikola Vucevic. In his ninth year with the Magic and tenth in the NBA, Vucevic is having a career campaign, averaging a 23.9-point, 11.7-rebound double-double through 32 games. He leads the Magic in Usage (28.8%), touches (75.2), rebound chances (17.4) and is even averaging 7.2 potential assists per game. He’s also averaging a career-high 33.8 minutes per game under Steve Clifford this season.
Aside from blowout risk, there’s no reason not to love Vucevic tonight. He’s facing a Nets team that looks markedly better over their recent seven-game win streak, but still ranks bottom 10 in defensive rating over that span and plays at the league’s eighth-fastest pace.
Michael Carter-Williams is averaging 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season and 0.85 with Vucevic on and Aaron Gordon/Cole Anthony off (153 minutes). He’s never going to be an elite per-minute player but should logged 30-plus minutes tonight against the Nets’ bottom-ranked defense. He’s a top value option at $5,000 on FanDuel.
Al-Farouq Aminu is chalk on FanDuel right now, but it’s hard to fully get behind him even at his $3,700 price point. He’s a career 0.79 DraftKings points per minute producer, and although his minutes continue to climb, he hasn’t played more than 22 minutes on the year. It’s a strong pace-up spot for the Magic, but Aminu owns a 12 percent usage rate, his 13.9 percent assist rate is greatly inflated from his career average (7.2%) and so are his block and steal rates. Aminu is only averaging 2.8 potential assists per game.
Evan Fournier is always capable of popping off for a big game and is averaging 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Gordon and Anthony off the floor this season.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic, Michael Carter-Williams
Brooklyn Nets (118.25)
James Harden is back to being himself of late. Over his last six games (all wins), Harden is sporting a 30 percent usage rate, 44 percent assist rate, 14.6 percent rebound rate and 1.68 DraftKings points per minute. He’s logging huge minutes nightly and gets another game as the Nets clear no. 1 with Kevin Durant sidelined. He’s also finished with fewer than 60 DraftKings points in only one of those six starts. The only reason you might have some difficulty getting to a lot of Harden tonight is because Nikola Jokic faces the Wizards and Giannis Antetokounmpo has a home matchup with the Pelicans.
No one else for Brooklyn is a priority tonight. Kyrie Irving boasts a 33 percent usage rate with Durant (and Caris LeVert) off the floor this season and averages 1.35 DraftKings points per minute in those minutes but is just a secondary option on this six-game slate.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden
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Sacramento Kings (+1.5) at New York Knicks (224.5)
Sacramento Kings (111.5)
The Kings draw a lousy matchup against the Knicks, who rank third in defensive rating (107.7) and dead last in pace (96.41) this season. While this game has a surprisingly high 224.5 total, Sacramento gets a huge pace decrease and should have a tough time scoring.
De’Aaron Fox won’t benefit from the matchup, but he is priced down enough on both FanDuel ($7,700) and DraftKings ($7,800) to warrant some appeal. Fox averages 1.21 DraftKings points per minute and has logging 36-plus minutes in competitive games. His 30 percent usage rate and 33.3 percent assist rate both lead the Kings on the year.
Marvin Bagley is getting the backup center minutes behind Richaun Holmes makes him a fine secondary option so long as he continues to see around 30 minutes of court time. This isn’t the most imposing Knicks frontcourt defense, currently anchored by a player in Nerlens Noel, who could get swept out to sea by a slight breeze.
Buddy Hield is $5,800 on FanDuel and plays big minutes in competitive games, but his usage rate is down almost 7 percent from last season (27.2 to 20.6) and he doesn’t contribute much in the way of peripherals.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox
FanDuel Plays: De’Aaron Fox
New York Knicks (113)
Elfrid Payton is doubtful to take the court tonight, which should open the door to more playing time for Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley. Rose has been getting the backup minutes behind Payton since coming to New York, while Quickley is mostly backing up R.J. Barrett. Rose should start tonight and play somewhere in the mid-20’s in minutes, which makes him a top value option on DraftKings at only $4,600. He’s sporting a 27 percent usage rate and 30 percent assist rate in New York, so even if those numbers suffer a little bit alongside Barrett and Randle, he’ll still be primed for a very strong game against the league’s worst defense. Not only are the Kings disastrous on the defensive end, but they’re also playing at the league’s ninth fastest pace.
Quickley is a tougher player to evaluate tonight; it’s definitely possible that he soaks up the backup point guard minutes behind Rose (assuming Rose starts) and still gets some run behind Barrett, too. It’s also entirely possible that Tom Thibodeau opts to exhume Austin Rivers’ body from beneath the earth and insert him back into the rotation. Ultimately, there’s a lot of ways this could go wrong for Quickley, but he should see a nice bump in minutes at a discounted price point. Moreover, the matchup is too perfect to overlook in the event that he does play in the mid-to-upper-20’s in minutes tonight. I also don’t think it’s the craziest idea to have both Rose and Quickley in the same lineup if we assume Quickley can get some minutes alongside him.
Alec Burks should also benefit from Payton’s absence, but has become less aggressive as a shooter lately and never gets to the line. He’s a fine secondary option given the conditions.
Julius Randle has been spectacular this season, leading the Knicks in usage (26.8%), rebound chances (17.4) and potential assists (10.5). He also ranks 12th in all of basketball with 82.2 touches per game, so we know he’ll always be heavily involved. He should have no trouble scoring against a Kings squad that allows the eighth-highest field-goal percentage at the rim and the most points in the paint (52.8) to their opponents.
Finally, I’m not opposed to taking some shots on Barrett. He’s been pretty awful of late, but an extreme pace-up spot against Sacramento makes him at least worthy of consideration at only $5,500 on FanDuel and DraftKings. You could do worse than 0.90 DraftKings points per minute from a guy getting 30-plus minutes against the Kings, even if Rose is likely to siphon off some of his usage.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Derrick Rose, Immanuel Quickley
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Immanuel Quickley, Julius Randle, Derrick Rose
Los Angeles Clippers (-8) at Memphis Grizzlies (225.5)
Los Angeles Clippers (116.75)
It feels like every night we talk about how nothing from the Clippers is of interest to us despite all their talent. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both averaging north of 1.30 DraftKings points per minute on the season but neither stand out on a slate that offers a wealth of high-end appeal. Outside of George deserving modest consideration at $8,600 on FanDuel, there’s just not much to talk about here.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Memphis Grizzlies (108.75)
Much like the Clippers, we don’t have a single Grizzly projected for double-digit ownership on Thursday. According to Awesemo’s ownership projections, Ja Morant is the most popular player from Memphis at only 9.6 percent on FanDuel and 7.7 percent on DraftKings. The Clippers play at the sixth slowest pace in basketball, and everyone on the Grizzlies is priced appropriately.
Morant is at least in play at a low $7,000 salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings, as he’s a 29.2 percent usage player while dishing out assists at a 40.6 percent clip. Morant is averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute on the year, but likely won’t have an easy time scoring against the Clippers’ backcourt defense.
It’s also worth noting that even if Dillon Brooks doesn’t suit up, Taylor Jenkins is spreading around those voided minutes around too much to make a difference. Justise Winslow would likely see around 25-27 minutes off the bench though if you’re desperate.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Washington Wizards (+7.5) at Denver Nuggets (237.5)
Washington Wizards (115)
Tonight’s meeting between the Wizards and Nuggets has the second highest total on the slate, and it’s a huge one at 237.5. The only two relevant players for Washington are Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, so if you’re looking to target the Wizards there’s no reason to look anywhere else.
Westbrook is averaging just shy of 34 minutes per game since the start of February with a 29.3 percent usage rate, 47.2 percent assist rate, 13.8 percent rebound rate and 1.36 DraftKings points per minute, of which the latter three lead the Wizards over that span. Beal, meanwhile, is averaging a team-high 35.7 minutes per game over that same stretch, while sporting a 32.6 percent usage rate, 24 percent assist rate and 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. If Washington is capable of keeping tonight’s game competitive it’ll be because of Beal and Westbrook. And if you’re loading up on chalky Nuggets players, it might not be a bad idea to use one of Beal or Westbrook in those lineups because they’ll be the reason a blowout is avoided.
Davis Bertans is questionable to play tonight, but there’s no clear beneficiary if he sits. Deni Avdija would make the most sense at a near minimum salary price point, but he’s averaging only 0.76 DraftKings points per minute on the year and isn’t a lock to earn significantly additional minutes in Scott Brooks’ rotation.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Russell Westbrook
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal, Russell Westbrook
Denver Nuggets (122.5)
Jokic should annihilate the Wizards tonight. He’s producing a stellar 1.66 DraftKings points per minute, leads the entire league in touches as a center (102.2), is top five in assists (8.7) and ninth in rebound chances per game (18.2). Jokic also owns a career-high 29.3 percent usage rate. If that wasn’t enough, the Wizards play at the league’s fastest pace (104.3) and rank 27th in defensive rating (114.4). While I love the idea of getting some Embiid at massively discounted ownership, there’s no denying Jokic is one of the top overall options on Thursday’s slate.
Michael Porter Jr. has been wildly disappointing of late, but he played 40 minutes in regulation last time out and should continue to get plenty of run tonight. Denver will once again be without Gary Harris, P.J. Dozier, JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap, which will almost certainly keep Porter well above the 30-minute mark on Thursday. Michael Malone ran an eight-man rotation last game, which if that doesn’t change against the wizards will make Porter and Will Barton extremely strong plays in one of the night’s best overall matchups.
It’s no guarantee that Malone runs a condensed rotation tonight, but if he sticks with eight players, you could legitimately make an argument for most of the value in tournaments, including Monte Morris, Zeke Nnaji and Facundo Campazzo. Keep an eye out for the starting lineup to see if Malone sticks with Morris, goes back to Nnaji or makes an entirely different change.
Ultimately, Denver is going to be one of the chalkiest teams tonight, but for good reason. The Wizards can’t stop anyone and the Nuggets are missing four players who are all usually regulars in the rotation.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr.
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr.
New Orleans Pelicans (+9) at Milwaukee Bucks (242)
New Orleans Pelicans (116.2)
The Pelicans are the biggest dogs of the night against the Bucks, but still own a 116.2 implied total in a game with the highest over/under on the night. The problem with New Orleans is no one ever stands out on this team. Zion Williamson has been great, averaging 1.34 DraftKings points per minute on 29.1 percent usage since the start of February, but it’s nearly impossible to roster him on DraftKings tonight at $8,600. He’s a better play at $8,500 on FanDuel but is still sitting outside the top 20 in ownership. While Williamson has been efficient, he hasn’t offered a big enough ceiling to justify prioritizing him over other players in the same price range on DraftKings where multi-position eligibility opens everything up.
Lonzo Ball has played 35-plus minutes in four straight games and is averaging 1.09 DraftKings points per minute since the beginning of the month. Almost all of his rates are down this season, though, which keeps him from being anything more than a secondary play. Brandon Ingram is fine at $7,900 on DraftKings and $8,000 on FanDuel given the 242-point total attached to this game, but him, Lonzo and Josh Hart are all 10-15 percent players for tonight and nothing more.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Milwaukee Bucks (125.5)
Not unlike the Wizards, who we discussed earlier, Milwaukee relies on two players to get the job done each night. From a fantasy standpoint at least, Giannis and Khris Middleton are the only two players to target so long as Jrue Holiday remains sidelined. Antetokounmpo averages an elite 1.73 DraftKings points per minute on 33.5 percent usage, 28.5 percent assists and 18.4 percent rebounds. The Pelicans, meanwhile, rank 28th in defensive rating with 115.6 points allowed per 100 possessions. Steven Adams does a nice job of protecting the paint, but there’s really no slowing down Giannis when he gets a head of steam. Some of the toughest decisions tonight will be deciding between the likes of Antetokounmpo, Harden, Jokic and more.
Middleton is only $7,600 on FanDuel and continues to see a little more than 10 minutes per game with Antetokounmpo off the floor. He’s second on the Bucks in usage (24.3%) and DraftKings points per minute (1.17), and Milwaukee boasts a slate-high 125.5 total at home.
There are rarely any priorities for Milwaukee outside of Giannis and Middleton, but you could do worse than Brook Lopez (DraftKings), D.J. Augustin (DraftKings/FanDuel) and Donte DiVincenzo (DraftKings/FanDuel) as last men in for tournaments.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton
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