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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Can Jarrett Allen Crush These Backup Bigs? (February 2)

Neil Orfield



NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Jarrett Allen vs. Backups (February 2)

There is a pretty big contrast from the Wednesday night slate tonight, as there is likely a whole lot of value with NBA DFS picks tonight. Still, things frequently change late in the day, so be sure to pay attention to news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to hear great analysis of how the news changes the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help make DraftKings lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Feb. 2

Slate Overview

There are seven games on this slate. The highest total currently is the Lakers-Pacers game, with a total of 240.5. The lowest total is Heat-Knicks, with a total of 215.5.

Anthony Slater, who covers the Warriors for The Athletic, reported that the Warriors are likely to rest several key starters tonight after they played heavy minutes last night in an overtime loss to the Timberwolves. The Warriors’ first injury report of the day listed Klay Thompson as out and Stephen Curry and Draymond Green both questionable. Be sure to verify who is playing before finalizing your lineups.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is doubtful to play tonight for the Grizzlies. With Steven Adams already out, the Grizzlies will likely be starting either Brandon Clarke ($5,800) or Xavier Tillman ($4,200). Santi Aldama ($3,200) should also see increased playing time.

Victor Oladipo is doubtful to play for the Heat, opening up about 28 minutes of playing time to fill.

High-End Tier

Luka Doncic ($12,300) is the highest-projected player on the slate in this matchup with the Pelicans. With so many great studs on the slate, Doncic is projected for just 18% ownership. He is in the optimal lineup 17% of the time in the Stokastic simulations.

Nikola Jokic ($11,300) projects only a couple points behind Doncic at a $1,000 discount. Jokic is projected for 25% ownership with a 24% chance of being optimal. With the Warriors likely resting multiple starters, there is increased risk that Jokic will lose some playing time in a blowout.

Neither Paul George ($9,000) nor Kawhi Leonard ($9,800) are expected to draw more than 10% ownership in their matchup with the Bucks tonight. Both have modest positive leverage scores.

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Patrick Williams ($5,000) has been playing big minutes for the Bulls and gets a nice matchup with a Hornets team ranked seventh in the league in pace and 27th in defensive rating.

Andrew Wiggins ($5,800) was surprisingly left off the Warriors first injury report. He sees a slight increase in usage and fantasy points per minute with Thompson off. If Curry misses the game Wiggins will become a true priority, as he sees more than five extra fantasy points per 36 minutes with Curry off the floor. Teammate Jordan Poole ($6,500) will also become a great play if Curry misses the game.

Jimmy Butler ($7,400) and Tyler Herro ($6,700) are among the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate despite the low matchup total. Both are expected to see a couple extra minutes of court time with Oladipo out.

Jarrett Allen ($6,300) is a bit too cheap for his projection, and has huge upside against the backup Grizzlies bigs.

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Value Tier

Keep an eye on the Warriors. Several players at or near the minimum price will go from unplayable to great plays if Curry and Green join Thompson on the sidelines.

Kevin Love ($3,300) currently has the highest leverage score in the Stokastic Boom/Bust Tool, as he is projected for 5% ownership with an 11% chance of being optimal. He is not a player to play with a ton of confidence, but he does have a nice matchup with the backup Grizzlies.

Dennis Smith Jr. ($3,800) is projected for 4% ownership with a 9% chance of being optimal.

Tillman ($4,200) and Aldama ($3,200) are fine point-per-dollar options who each have a wide range of outcomes, depending on who can stay out of foul trouble against Allen, Love and Evan Mobley.

These are just some of the top plays of the slate in terms of projection, value and leverage. Things can change in a hurry on an NBA slate, though, so remember to track the news throughout the day and take advantage of potential late-swap opportunities.

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.

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