On the schedule for Tuesday is a 10-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Dec. 27.
NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 27
High-End Tier
For tonight’s 10-game slate, many DFS players are going to make building around Nikola Jokic a priority, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting him to be the third most rostered player on the slate. His popularity is due to that the Nuggets are competing in the highest total on the slate vs. the Kings (240.5 points) and that Jokic is incredible form, scoring over 80 DraftKings points in four of his past seven starts. While it might sound crazy considering these strong selling points, fading Jokic tonight will separate you from the field and is a risk worth taking in GPPs. First off, while the center has exploded for over 80 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts, what people may overlook is that all these eruptions came on his home floor. Tonight, the Nuggets will be in Sacramento and when competing on the road this season, Jokic is averaging a whopping 11 DraftKings PPG less than when at home in Denver. In fact, the Serbian has only recorded over 60 DraftKings points in four of his 15 road starts this season. Plus, the Nuggets are essentially back to full strength, after having many key players in and out of the lineup over the last month. Specifically, Michael Porter Jr. is playing his third game in a row tonight after missing 13 straight and with the forward on the floor this season, Jokic’s usage has dropped 2.8 percentage points and his fantasy production has decreased from 1.7 to 1.5 DraftKings PPM.
Building around a far less owned Luka Doncic has a ton of merit for GPPs tonight. The superstar gets the luxury of playing on his home floor and the Mavs will be without Dorian Finney-Smith (adductor). Doncic has been 3.8 DraftKings PPG better at home than when on the road this season and has produced a massive 1.8 DraftKings PPM with Finney-Smith off the court, mostly attributed to his assist rate increasing 5.7 percentage points. Furthermore, Dallas will playing up in pace vs. the Knicks, who rank 17th in pace, compared to the Mavs, who rank dead last. Doncic easily could out score Jokic tonight and is expected to come with a third of the ownership on DraftKings according to Stokastic’s projections.
Tyrese Haliburton and Jordan Poole are also some lucrative players that need to be on your radar tonight, with Stokastic forecasting them for low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Haliburton has flashed major upside as of late, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in two of his past three starts and is competing in the third highest total on the slate vs. the Hawks (238.5 points). In totals of 230 points or higher this season, Haliburton is amassing 46.1 DraftKings PPG (19 games), including eight efforts over 50 DraftKings points. As for Poole, the guard has seen a usage rate over 40% in four straight starts with Stephen Curry (shoulder) and Andrew Wiggins (adductor) sidelined. Blowouts have held Poole back from being consistent during this stretch, but tonight’s matchup vs. the Hornets is a perfect setup for him to reach his ceiling. Charlotte ranks third-to-last in defensive efficiency and this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (239.5 points). Additionally, the Warriors are only 4.5-point favorites and their implied team total is the second largest on the board (122.25 points). In this near perfect environment, Poole has a ceiling near 60 fantasy points.
Value Tier
Projecting to be a top-three most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jeremy Sochan is the chalk value play of the night. While the heavy ownership isn’t ideal, the 19-year-old is underpriced for his upside and is a necessary play tonight. Sochan was inserted into the Spurs’ starting lineup three games ago and has handled a large role since the promotion, ranking third on the team in minutes per game (29.4), resulting in 32.3 DraftKings PPG. The forward is generating 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season and tonight’s matchup with the Thunder carries the fourth highest total on the slate (236.5 points). Sochan is averaging 25 DraftKings PPG for the 14 occasions he has logged over 25 minutes this season and should effortlessly exceeded five-times value in this potential shootout.
Hovering around 15% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections, Josh Okogie is a great punt play tonight with Devin Booker (groin) and Landry Shamet (Achilles) unavailable. Stokastic has Okogie projected for 23.6 minutes in this situation, which is plenty of time for the wing to beat his low salaries in this matchup with the Grizzlies that presents a healthy total of 226.5 points. In the 109 minutes Okogie has played with Booker and Shamet off the court this season, the veteran has supplied one DraftKings PPM. Furthermore, for the seven occasions Okogie has cracked the 25-minute threshold this season, he has been very efficient with 29 DraftKings PPG. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Okogie owns a positive leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Jabari Smith Jr. is also standing out as a sharp target for GPPs, with Stokastic forecasting the rookie for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Eric Gordon will be rested tonight, and Smith Jr. has had great upside with the veteran out of the lineup this season, scoring at least 35 DraftKings points in three of the five games Gordon has missed, most recently with 45.5 DraftKings points across 33.4 minutes in a brutal matchup vs. the Mavs this past Friday. With a 19.4% usage rate, Smith Jr. contributes 0.94 DraftKings PPM with Gordon off the floor and tonight’s meeting with the Celtics boasts a large total of 231.5 points. Boston is a huge 14.5-point favorite, but if the Rockets were ever to keep this game close, Smith Jr. has the potential for over 40 fantasy points.
Situations to Monitor
The most important name to monitor tonight is Domantas Sabonis, who is questionable, despite being diagnosed with a broken thumb yesterday. The injury is to his non-shooting hand and the center is apparently pushing to play through the ailment. If available, Sabonis will be an outstanding GPP target that could get overlooked given the injury. As noted above, this matchup with the Nugget sports the highest total on the slate (240.5 points) and in his last five starts, Sabonis has been magnificent, producing 61.3 DraftKings PPG. Now, if Sabonis ends up being inactive, the Kings would likely be forced to start Alex Len to match up with Jokic, which would certainly make him a viable punt considering his very low price tags. This season, Len is averaging one DraftKings PPM. Also, De’Aaron Fox would see a large boost if Sabonis sits and would have to be considered in this massive total. With the big man off the floor, Fox’s fantasy production upgrades from 1.2 to 1.4 DraftKings PPM.
Jalen Brunson (hip) is also questionable tonight. The guard has yet to miss a game this season and has played through a questionable tag on numerous occasions, making an absence unlikely, but if that rare situation unfolds, Immanuel Quickley will be a must play as the projected starting point guard for the Knicks. In the 454 minutes the guard has played with Brunson off the court this season, Quickley’s usage has increased 3.4 percentage points to 23.6% and he collects one DraftKings PPM. Julius Randle would also see a notable boost and be a tournament spend to consider. With Brunson off the floor this season, Randle’s rises 4.2 percentage points and he generates a team-best 1.5 DraftKings PPM.
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