It’s a shorter slate today and sadly one with no Gordon Hayward-caliber NBA DFS picks to find. DraftKings addressed their faux pas with Hayward’s minimum pricing and now every injured or possibly injured player is priced up to his usual price, a hilarious overreaction in the NBA DFS world. But there are still some fun spots to discuss tonight. We might even be able to play some Knicks thanks to a possibly more sane new coach! Let’s talk all about tonight’s four games with the Dec. 10 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
Be sure to check out EMac’s Cash Building Blocks for more NBA DFS picks and analysis.
Follow me and tweet me @chrisspags with any feedback or questions you have! Otherwise, let’s get to what I see so far for tonight’s slate.
It May Shock You To Hear The Team Playing Washington Looks Good In NBA DFS Again
Washington visits Charlotte in a game with an NBA DFS slate-high 229 combined total. And, as is often the case due to Washington’s league-high 107.1 pace and 114.5 defensive efficiency rating, Charlotte’s players look highly appealing. Devonte’ Graham continues to be the highest-upside play with a team-high 37.4% assist rate and team-leading 15.2 shots per game that includes his team-best 8.7 three point attempts per game. Graham can get cold, as he did last time out versus Atlanta when he shot 4-for-17 and finished with 36 FP. But he’s shown 63 FP upside recently and his volatility and lower-than-you’d-think ownership make him an interesting tournament play.
I also don’t really have an issue with Terry Rozier. He and Graham have shown the ability to have outlier days together and his price is more appealing than Graham’s. P.J. Washington feels unreliable but he had 41 FP in Charlotte’s last game and has seen at least 33 minutes in five out of his last six games. He and Miles Bridges seem to be the only other guys to reliably expect minutes from with Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo splitting fewer than 48 minutes most games lately.
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Mo Wagner projects to be the highest-owned Wizard on the other side. I have no issue with him but he did just lose minutes to Troy Brown and Davis Bertans last game when he started the second half cold. With his ownership as high as it projects to be, there are some reasons to consider a move away. Rui Hachimura has been less productive on a per-minute basis but he seems to have a far more stable minutes load in the mid-30s. Ish Smith is also priced up and he also seems like a more reliable value to me. He has at least 31 minutes in each game since Isaiah Thomas was sidelined. There are fewer ways for Washington to get away from him and Rui than there are for them to get away from Wagner.
Bradley Beal is expensive for this slate but Charlotte’s 111.5 defensive efficiency rating means he should see better looks than he has in his last few games. This is my favorite game stack on the day and I imagine I’ll have multiple combinations of both sides across the majority of my lineups.
And Then We Have The Opposite In Philadelphia
Denver-Philadelphia is not a crazy NBA Finals matchup. Both teams are undeniably talented. But holy cow, does this matchup look bad on paper from a fantasy perspective with its 208.5 combined total from Vegas. Denver has a 101.3 defensive efficiency rating and low 100.4 pace. Philadelphia has a 100.5 defensive efficiency rating and a comparably low 102 pace. Both teams also don’t have a high volume of quality three point shooters either. It seems tough to trust much.
Nikola Jokic may be an exception despite his poor start to 2019. Jokic averages 65.8 FP in his last three games against Philadelphia, two of which included Joel Embiid. He has exactly 22 shot attempts in each of the three games too. Would I trust this anomaly at volume? No, but with under 5% projected ownership, I think he’s worth some stabs.
On the Philadelphia side, you could talk me into a little Ben Simmons or Al Horford. But it feels like trying to squint to see one of those old Magic Eye paintings. On a slate of this small size, it can make sense to test your luck with these guys. But there are other ways to go that seem a little more fertile, I think.
Blow Some NBA DFS Money In South Beach
Miami has a strong matchup with Atlanta’s 111.4 defensive efficiency rating at home. With this quality matchup, guys like Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are priced up to the gills. I still like both in lineups that assume Atlanta keeps the game competitive (though I’d be lying if I said I weren’t a little concerned about Trae Young and teammates getting a bit of a Miami hangover against the Heat’s tough defense). With how expensive Butler and Adebayo are, you need Atlanta to bring it tonight so it seems logical to me to consider running back one or both with Young or Jabari Parker, who’s been a massive disappointment lately. Parker has seen under 30 minutes in the last few games with more wing depth available for Atlanta and I can’t see myself with a ton of him.
It may be safer to just take Kendrick Nunn and hope for the best. Justise Winslow and Goran Dragic are expected out and Nunn saw 37 minutes of court time in regulation for them with both out last game. Nunn and a more expensive Tyler Herro have seen a ton of run lately. Herro has way more usage with 18 and 22 shot attempts in his last two games so there’s a chance if Nunn gets hot, Herro could find slightly less opportunity.
The New Look Knicks Head To Portland
New Knicks coach Mike Miller (not the cool Mike Miller) had a fairly deep rotation in his debut against Indiana. 11 players saw court time in the matchup that was competitive until the end. And the only three players to see over 33 minutes were Marcus Morris, Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett. After these guys was Mitchell Robinson with 25. These are the only plays I’d feel comfortable trusting at this point. All three have decent prices and it’s not a bad matchup with Portland’s 109.9 defensive efficiency rating. If Miller is willing to commit to a core group of guys, this might be a much more appealing time to target before people catch on to the reality of our post-Fizdale lives.
Elfrid Payton was unequivocally the most successful point guard in his 17 minutes of court time and he ended up in the Knicks’ closing group. He had 31.25 FP in that stint. I’d take a stab or two in the hopes he earned himself a better shot at minutes in this more appealing spot tonight.
The Blazers seem a little expensive for this matchup against the slow-paced Knicks. Their defense is not good with a 110.8 defensive efficiency rating so there could be potential. I’d mostly be okay with the core guys like Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Hassan Whiteside, but I’m not sure how much I’ll land on them with their elevated prices. Kent Bazemore and Carmelo Anthony have fairly secure minutes loads now that Rodney Hood is out. It wouldn’t be crazy in the least to consider these guys but I’m not dying for either.
Follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags and I’ll see you guys next time for more NBA DFS picks in the Four Corners and Switch and Hedge!
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