Bears-Vikings DFS Picks: Will The Clock Strike Midnight For Minnesota? (November 27)

Monday Night Football winds down a wild Week 12 with an NFC North battle between the Chicago Bears and the Vikings in Minnesota. Justin Fields and Joshua Dobbs are helming squads heading in opposite directions. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Bears-Vikings DFS picks for the Monday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday Night slate, so check out these Bears-Vikings DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Bears-Vikings DFS Picks

Chicago Bears: 20.5 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Justin Fields with the second-best fantasy projection for this matchup, though he is the QB2 in the player pool. More on that later, of course. Fields came back in style after missing four games with a dislocated right thumb, suffered in Week 6 against the Vikings. Last week, he ran for a season-high 104 yards on 18 carries while also tossing a touchdown, adding 169 aerial yards to his stats.

The Vikings are a tough matchup for opposing signal-callers, having allowed only one quarterback to throw for more than 285 yards, and that was Justin Herbert (405) all the way back in Week 3. They have the ninth-ranked passing and rushing DVOAs, plus homefield advantage. Fields is always a primary option with his ability to rack up fantasy points in multiple ways, but he will have his work cut out for him tonight.

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Running Backs

D’Onta Foreman (ankle/shin) is out, which is a boost for both Khalil Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson. Herbert returned last week after missing five games with his own high ankle sprain. He was not particularly effective against the Lions; he did have 16 carries and three targets but only 41 combined yards. Johnson had 30 yards on just six carries, though the youngster has not reached the end zone since the season opener. In an odd twist, Johnson went from six targets in Week 10 to no looks against Detroit, but with Fields running the ball so often, it limits potential dump-off passes.

Expect something along the lines of a 70-30 split for opportunities, with each running back losing red zone carries to Fields. Khari Blasingame is likely to be on the field for around a dozen snaps, but his touches have been minimal. His last carry was in Week 5, and his last target was in Week 8. Former Seahawk Travis Homer will likely be active, but he has been relegated to only special-teams action for the last month.

Wide Receivers

DJ Moore should be on the field for 95% of the snaps, and he is the clear alpha pass-catcher on this squad. The former first-round selection from the 2018 NFL Draft has 80 of the 163 targets that have gone to Chicago wideouts. That, dear reader, is domination. His three best games of the season have been with Fields under center, including yardage totals of 230, 131 and 104, with all six of his scores coming from the Chicago field general.

Darnell Mooney has targets in only three of the six games with Fields at quarterback, which makes his salaries on DraftKings ($4,800) and FanDuel ($8,000) seem more realistic than under-valued within this additional context. Mooney has also fallen to snap shares of just 67% and 60% the last two weeks, with Equanimeous St. Brown seeing the field after a month-long absence and rookie fourth-rounder Tyler Scott beginning to get more opportunities. This trio is in play, but it is hard to see any of them getting more than a couple of targets. Of course, anything can happen in a single game, so they are viable options but best left for tournaments.

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Tight Ends

Cole Kmet is second on the team with 61 targets, and he had four last week in Fields’ return. In the five games where Fields played all the snaps, Kmet has tallied 33 total targets, so that keeps him in the mix for all game formats tonight. While Kmet has 12 red zone targets, just seven came from Fields.

Robert Tonyan is the next most accomplished receiving tight end, but he has just nine targets and is almost always out-snapped by his fellow former Green Bay Packer Marcedes Lewis. This is the 18th season for Lewis, who is still a great blocker, but while he had a target last week, it was just his third on the season.

Defense/Special Teams

Minnesota is allowing just over two sacks per game, while the Bears have a league-worst 15 quarterback takedowns. The Vikings are suffering nearly two turnovers per game, though with all the personnel changes, that is not terrible. Chicago has 13 takeaways through 11 games, which is in the bottom third of the league.

Minnesota Vikings: 23.5 Points

Quarterback

Joshua Dobbs has been a great story this season, having made two teams competitive. In his three games with the Vikings, he has rushed for a touchdown and thrown for a score in each appearance. Reaching back to his time in Arizona, that gives him five consecutive games with a rushing touchdown. The NFL nomad had 389 rushing yards on the season, which trail only Lamar Jackson (574) and Jalen Hurts (410).

The Bears have the 11th-ranked rushing DVOA but are in the bottom 5 against the pass. Sadly, Justin Jefferson is not ready to return to action just yet, but Dobbs is savvy enough to make do in this matchup.

Running Backs

Alexander Mattison does not have to deal with mid-season acquisition Cam Akers, but rookie Ty Chandler is coming on strong. In the two games without Akers, Chandler has had 44% and 31% snap shares, which are his season highs. The rookie also brought in all four of his targets last week for 37 yards while turning 10 totes into 73 more. Mattison still led the way with 18 carries for 81 yards, catching one of two targets for a loss of a yard.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel have this duo carrying cap hits a little higher than what their production supports. If you are a Mattison believer, he should continue to get the volume edge, but he has lacked explosiveness this season and likely will lose out to Dobbs inside the 5-yard line. Chandler has been more elusive, but rookies can wilt under the primetime lights. That was not the case last week, but it does not make Chandler a steely-eyed veteran by any stretch of the imagination.

Fullback C.J. Ham is on the field around a dozen snaps per game, but he has just five targets this season and none in the last three games.

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Wide Receivers

Rookie Jordan Addison has performed admirably without Jefferson to provide cover. in the six games without his otherworldly teammate, he has seen 43 targets, catching 29 balls for 398 yards and four scores. Though he has yet to reach the end zone with Dobbs on the field, Addison has 20 targets over the last three games, so it is just a matter of time.

K.J. Osborn was on the field for 96% of the snaps last week, but it resulted in only two targets and a 7-yard catch. Journeyman Brandon Powell has consolidated the WR3 role and has had at least three receptions and 30 yards or a touchdown in the trio of tilts with Dobbs at the helm. The $500 salary difference on FanDuel is negligible, though the $3,600 savings on DraftKings makes Powell the far better option and worthy of cash game (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) consideration.

Jalen Nailor and N’Keal Harry are likely to be active, with Trishton Jackson drawing the short straw and watching the game in street clothes.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson has been a key reason that the Minnesota passing game has survived without Jefferson. He leads the team with 80 targets and has at least eight in all but one game this year. Though he has scored only twice in the last nine games, both touchdowns have been inside the last month. Josh Oliver popped up on the radar last week, catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a primetime touchdown. He has just 18 targets on the season but six in the three games with Dobbs under center.

Johnny Mundt does not see the field all that often, but it is worth noting that four of his five targets have been over the last four games. Of course, he has just 39 total snaps in this stretch, but he is $400 on DraftKings, which does open up a lot of different lineup possibilities.

Defense/Special Teams

Chicago has allowed 19 turnovers, which are the fifth most in the league, though the Vikings have been pedestrian when it comes to takeaways, with only 14 in 11 games. The Bears are allowing three sacks per game, while Minnesota is recording 2.6 per tilt.

Monday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Bears-Vikings DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bears-Vikings

  1. Joshua Dobbs: The Cinderella story continues!
  2. Justin Fields: Would have the top spot if this game were in Chicago.
  3. T.J. Hockenson: Excellent play and worthy of the multiplier slot as well.
  4. DJ Moore: Has the eye of his quarterback, as well as the Minnesota defense.
  5. Jordan Addison: Decent salary on both sites, particularly with Jefferson out again.
  6. Cole Kmet: Hopefully his quarterback doesn’t forget about him.
  7. Brandon Powell: DraftKings ranking; he drops to the top of the next section for FanDuel. Also returns punts.
  8. Alexander Mattison: Chandler is making this recommendation tough; still the trusted option of the coaching staff.
  9. Greg Joseph: League-average leg, but he does have seven consecutive games with multiple field goal attempts.
  10. Cairo Santos: Great when he gets opportunities; five games with one or fewer field goal tries.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bears-Vikings

  1. Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson: Herbert is carrying the salary of someone who should see north of 15 opportunities, but what will he do with them is the real conundrum, on the other hand Johnson’s salary is intriguing, but he needs at least half a dozen touches to be worthwhile. This duo each loses carries to Fields, which removes the floor. Both are viable options, which create varied roster constructions, but there is risk.
  2. Ty Chandler: There is a chance that the rookie will take the opportunity lead at some point down the stretch.
  3. K.J. Osborn and Darnell Mooney: They will be on the field a lot; that is worth something in the single-game format.
  4. Minnesota D/ST: Solid play; upside, of course, is tied entirely to a return touchdown.
  5. Chicago D/ST: Meh, not exciting, but variance could always be favorable with a pick-six or scoop-and-score.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Bears-Vikings

  1. Josh Oliver and Tyler Scott: Different teams, positions and snap shares, but similar median projection. Scott also returns kickoffs.
  2. Equanimeous St. Brown: Can disappear for weeks at a time.
  3. C.J. Ham: Five targets on the season, last was in Week 8.
  4. Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis and Johnny Mundt: Third-string tight ends unite!
  5. Travis Homer, Velus Jones Jr., Kene Nwangwu, Trent Taylor, Khari Blasingame, N’Keal Harry and Jalen Nailor: Most will see offensive snaps; collective touches are set at 2.5, with a slight lean on the over. Good luck figuring out who will get them.

Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips

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Eric MacPherson
Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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