NBA Player Props: Fade LeBron James from Deep (May 12)

The New York Knicks and Golden State Warriors scored vital home wins in Game 5 to keep their series alive, but they now must win on the road to force Game 7s. With so much on the line, even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers, especially the below LeBron James player prop.

Enter Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these NBA player props for Friday’s playoff action.

React App

Today’s Top NBA Player Prop | May 12 Playoff Games

Prop O/U

Although LeBron James has become a more aggressive perimeter shooter in the postseason, he hasn’t been efficient. He is averaging 1.7 3-pointers per game on 7 attempts, good for a conversion rate of only 24.7%. Let’s fade him from beyond the arc in Game 6.

James has made a least three 3-pointers in only three of his playoff starts, only two of which came against the Warriors, and none of which came at home. NBA Bet Pro has James scoring only 2 3-pointers tonight, giving the under an expected win rate of 59%.

Let’s attack this NBA player prop at BetMGM. With the implied odds there set to only 54.5%, you’re getting a considerable chunk of value relative. If you’re yet to sign up at BetMGM, you can get first-bet insurance worth up to $1,000!

Best NBA Player Prop: LeBron James Under 2.5 3-Pointers -120 at BetMGM

Latest NBA DFS Content

Jalen Brunson O/U 5.5 Rebounds

The New York Knicks left Jalen Brunson in for 48 minutes in their do-or-die Game 5. With Brunson having had just one day to recuperate, it’s safe to expect some inefficiency — or even some extra minutes off the floor — from him in Game 6.

Brunson is averaging only 5.8 rebounds per game this series, but his 9-rebound showing in Game 5 increased that number significantly. He was averaging only 5 rebounds per game before that content. NBA Bet Pro expects some regression and has him coming down with only 4.3 boards.

The under has an expected win rate of 63%, per NBA Bet Pro. But the oddsmakers at BetRivers have priced the under at only -152, or 60.3%, giving under backers plenty of value. Several other sharp props are on tonight’s board, and to view them, simply sign up for NBA Bet Pro — new users can even get a one-week free trial of the product!

Best NBA Player Prop: Jalen Brunson Under 5.5 Rebounds -152 at BetRivers

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.