Buccaneers-Lions + Texans-Seahawks DFS Picks: Monday Night Mayhem Doubleheader (Week 7)

Monday Night Football brings the fourth and final doubleheader of the season, and the DFS sites have some sizeable tournaments leading into Tuesday’s NBA Opening Night. A four-team player pool creates different, yet plenty of decision-making opportunities across the NFL DFS world. In this installment of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’re breaking down for Buccaneers-Lions and Texans-Seahawks NFL DFS picks for Week 7 Monday Night Football. Let’s get ready by analyzing NFL DFS ownership projections and player projections for DraftKings and FanDuel.

Monday Night Football Week 7 NFL DFS Picks

Similar to the Week 2 Monday Night Mayhem docket, there are three hours between kickoffs of the two games. That adds to the late-swap potential for those seeking to maximize their advantage over the complacent.

Quarterback NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 7: Baker Mayfield

Mayfield is seventh in the league among quarterbacks who made at least five starts, with 256.2 passing yards per game. He managed this production despite having Chris Godwin for only two games and Mike Evans for three, with running back Bucky Irving also missing the last two games. Evans and rookie Emeka Egbuka are both questionable due to hamstring issues, though it sounds like Evans is trending towards suiting up for the first time since Week 3.

The Detroit defense is without starting defensive backs Terrion Arnold and Kerby Joseph, and Brian Branch will miss Monday’s action after punching JuJu Smith-Schuster at the end of last week’s matchup. The Lions’ depth is thin with defensive linemen Marcus Davenport, Alim McNeill and Josh Paschal out, along with reserve linebackers Ezekiel Turner and Malcolm Rodriguez, and backup secondary members Daniel Thomas, D.J. Reed and Avonte Maddox.

The Motor City Kitties allowed multiple touchdown passes to every opposing signal-caller, save for Joe Flacco, whom they blanked in Week 4. On either side of that tilt, Lamar Jackson, Jake Browning and Mahomes each tossed a trio of tuddies.

Looking at the OddsShopper Live Odds Page, we can see that Mayfield has -111 odds on over 240.5 passing yards, -115 for his over 19.5 rushing yards prop and -115 for over 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Lions rank eighth in overall DVOA, and the team is 14th against the pass.

Quarterback Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Jared Goff will face the Tampa defense that ceded 300-plus passing yards and/or multiple aerial scores in each of the last four games. Christian McCaffrey (17/54/1) and Kenneth Walker III (10/86/0) are the only opposing ball-carriers to tally more than 45 rushing yards, with their efforts coming during the last two weeks.

Detroit prefers to run the ball, though if the Buccaneers do not crack, coach Dan Campbell and Goff will need to take to the air. Goff posted 300-plus passing yards against the Bucs in each of the last two seasons, recording no touchdowns last year but two in 2023’s matchup.

In the nightcap, the Houston Texans are in Seattle against the Seahawks, with a 40.5-point game total well below the 51.5 for the first game of the night. Houston did not allow a passing touchdown in the last three weeks, though Sam Darnold is far more competent than career backup Cooper Rush, rookie Cam Ward and the enigmatic Trevor Lawrence.

Seattle allowed two passing touchdowns in four of six games this season, but the Seahawks had a pair of interceptions three separate times. The defense is not going to make anyone forget the Legion of Boom, but it is a top-5 unit this season. C.J. Stroud had a strong Week 5 showing with four touchdowns in Baltimore, which likely made the Week 6 bye less stressful. Christian Kirk will be out due to a hamstring injury, but the rest of the pass-catching corps is available.

1. Mayfield: All systems are go!
2. Goff: Expect nothing from his legs, though that is not a deterrent on this slate.
3. Darnold: Seattle must be thrilled they have Darnold with Geno Smith faltering in Las Vegas.
4. Stroud: He was sacked at least twice in every game this season, though rushed for 27 or more yards on three occasions.

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Running Back NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 7: Jahmyr Gibbs

Gibbs (62%) has been on the field far more than David Montgomery (39%), though Monty has still been productive with 65 carries for 334 yards and four touchdowns on the ground and turning 10 targets into nine receptions and 78 yards. Gibbs has 87/390/4 on the ground, and his 25 targets resulted in 23/112/1 through the air. The rest of the Detroit running backs combine for eight offensive snaps, getting five carries for 15 yards.

Running Back Positional Preview for Monday Night Football

Rachaad White resumed the lead role in the Tampa Bay backfield with Irving slated to miss a third consecutive game. The fourth-year back was able to take what was blocked for him, posting 4.0 yards per carry, which is the second best of his career and much improved from the 3.67 of his first two seasons.

White has four rushing touchdowns, which are only two off of his career high of six when he was the lead back during his second season with the Bucs. He was always a strong contributor in the receiving game, and without Irving in the mix, he is getting the high value touches over Sean Tucker.

Seattle is content to let Zach Charbonnet and Walker share the backfield, with Walker technically the starter. This is a frustrating situation given Walker is the more dynamic player, but in the five games where both played, he was out-snapped 164 (55%) to 123 (41%).

In these games, Walker has the edge in targets (8 vs. 5) and two more carries. The Houston rushing defense is pretty average, allowing five rushing touchdowns and four opposing ball-carriers to top 60 rushing yards, though none cleared 70.

On FanDuel, Walker is $700 more expensive with a $500 premium on DraftKings. That is not really enough to drive decisions, but this duo actually has median fantasy point projections a tick below Montgomery. After Gibbs and White, this position is going to be about corralling the touchdowns, though there are still strategy nuances to consider in the large-field tournaments. Be sure to tune into the Stokastic MNF Live Before Lock Show at 6 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date DFS analysis and information.

Houston has rookie Woody Marks and veteran Nick Chubb in a timeshare, with Dameon Pierce popping up now and then. Chubb was brought in to back up a resurgent Joe Mixon, and Marks is a fourth-round flier as a potential lead back for next year. Sadly, Mixon is not able to play due to a foot injury, and he may be done for his career. Chubb was a dynamic runner beginning with 996 rushing yards in his rookie season, starting nine games, then rattling off four straight Pro Bowl campaigns, averaging 1,336 yards and 10 touchdowns per year.

Coming out of the bye week, it will be interesting to see if the team begins to let Marks emerge as the leader in what should be a shared backfield going forward.

1. Gibbs: Best combined role.
2. White: Easily ranks second without Irving.
3. Montgomery: Slightly above the Seattle backs with the better game environment, even against a tough Tampa front seven.
4. Walker: Better big play upside.
5. Charbonnet: Replacement-level starter getting equal time for some reason.
6. Marks: Trends above Chubb with passing game work.
7. Chubb: Looking for red zone equity.
8. Tucker: He will at least be returning kickoffs and has a chance for half a dozen offensive opportunities.

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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 7: Amon-Ra St. Brown

If we are being picky, the only knock against St. Brown is that Jameson Williams is the primary downfield threat, running most of the deep routes. St. Brown is no slouch in that regard; this is just the most appropriate alignment of skillsets. From a target perspective, St. Brown has a team-leading 51 looks, with Williams getting 28 thus far. Williams is seventh in the league at 17.0 yards per catch. The rest of the Detroit wideouts saw only 14 total targets, with nine going to veteran Kalif Raymond (who had just five offensive snaps in the last two games after suffering a neck injury in Week 5) and the other five going to rookie Isaac TeSlaa, who played on 21 and 25 snaps in each of the last two games, though he had just one target in this timeframe.

Wide Receiver Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Chris Godwin (fibula) is out again, and he may not play until early November. Evans is trending towards suiting up after missing three games with a hamstring issue, and it sounds like Egbuka (hamstring) has a chance to play as well. Both could be available or both could sit tonight, plus without knowing their actual level of health, everything written this morning is purely conjecture and speculation.

If both were coming into this game at 100%, or whatever that means at this point of the season, they would be behind St. Brown and strong pivots from Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Nico Collins. That is still the DFS assessment based on the information at this time, except without “strong” in the recommendation.

JSN has a commanding 36.4% target share for the Seahawks, while Collins leads the Texans with a 24.8% share. Both are the trusted first option for their respective teams, though defenses are all too aware of that as well. This is a tough matchup in either direction, so the hope is that volume and talent can counter all of the extra attention.

Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson are the depth pieces for Tampa, and each would be a strong value option if either Evans or Egbuka were out. In the nightcap, Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins are low-volume options who will be more prominently featured in the single-game contests. Hutchinson carved out a WR2 snap share with Kirk missing so many games, but the volume was more of a WR3 role. Jaylin Noel is behind his fellow rookie and Iowa State teammate, though he saw more on-field action when Kirk is out.

Cooper Kupp and rookie Tory Horton are wild cards for Seattle.

1. St. Brown: Easy click.
2. Smith-Njigba: Evolved into a terrific player and enjoying a year 3 breakout with DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh and Tyler Lockett in Tennessee.
3. Collins: It would not be a major shock if he led this position with the best fantasy performance tonight.
4. Evans and Egbuka: Questions all around, though Fortune favors the Bold.
5. Williams: Tremendous deep threat.
6. Shepard and Tez Johnson: Safer if Evans and/or Egbuka are out.
7. Kupp: It was a heck of a run.
8. Hutchinson and Horton: Each is getting more involved in their respective offenses as the days march on this season.
9. TeSlaa, Kameron Johnson and Noel: Differentiation plays; low floor and a touchdown would be needed to access any meaningful upside.

Tight End NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football Week 7: Sam LaPorta

LaPorta saw at least four targets in every game, and he has very little competition from Brock Wright, who has six targets, albeit two in the red zone while playing on just over half of the offensive sets.

Tight End Positional Preview for Monday Night Football DFS

Cade Otton is a fixture on the field with a 93% snap share. He had 15 targets over the last three games, converting on 12 for 141 yards, but no touchdowns. Payne Durham has one target, with Otton controlling the other 22 for the position.

Dalton Schultz has the second-most targets for Houston, averaging nearly 5.5 per game and six in each of the last three tilts. The rest of the Texans tight ends have nine looks, sprinkled among Cade Stover, Harrison Bryant and Brenden Bates. Stover broke his foot, so he has been out since Week 1, with Bryant serving as the TE2.

AJ Barner was on the field for 80% or more of the action in five of six games this season for Seattle, while rookie Elijah Arroyo secured a consistent 45% snap share, with Eric Saubert not too far behind. Barner is the most polished of the trio and good enough for the team to release Noah Fant in a salary-saving move. Saubert has just one target, though Arroyo flashed upside as a receiver and he has 12 targets with Barner at 19, despite double the playing time.

1. LaPorta: Clear option, but we have choices tonight.
2. Schultz: Coinflip between him and Otton, though Schultz has a steadier role.
3. Otton: If both Evans and Egbuka are out, Otton will slide ahead of Schultz, just barely.
4. Barner and Arroyo: The rookie has a $1,200 discount on FanDuel, but it is only a $600 savings on DraftKings.