Dolphins-Jets DFS Picks: Can New York Play The Spoiler? (November 24)

The NFL is bringing a new twist with a Black Friday game, with an early afternoon kickoff and the game featured on Amazon Prime as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Dolphins-Jets DFS plays for the Black Friday Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these Dolphins-Jets DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Dolphins-Jets DFS Picks

Miami Dolphins: 25.5 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Tua Tagovailoa just outside the top-10 quarterbacks in the full Week 11 player pool. This has a lot to do with the New York Jets being a top-5 defense against the pass, while also being slightly susceptible to the run.

Additionally, the Dolphins are nearly double-digit road favorites and have shown there is no issue leaning on their stable of capable running backs. Only Josh Allen (275, 236), Jalen Hurts (280) and Dak Prescott (255), have thrown for more than 205 yards against New York and six teams have been limited to one or fewer aerial scores.

That does not mean we should be avoiding Tagovailoa by any stretch, but it does indicate he will need to be efficient on Friday afternoon or be the author of an early lead, that turns things over to the running game.

Running Back

Seven different running backs have rushed for 68-plus yards and 13 have at least 50 or more combined yards. Of course the big news will be the availability of rookie De’Von Achane, who left Sunday’s game early, after tweaking the knee that landed him on the injured reserve. The prudent thing would be for the Dolphins to give him Friday off and have him return to action next Sunday, when they are in Washington, taking on the Commanders. The electric back was a limited practice participant on Tuesday (walkthrough) and Wednesday.

Raheem Mostert (ankle/knee) was also a limited participant, though he is expected to be a full go on Friday. The 31-year-old is having the best season of his career and currently leads the league with 11 rushing touchdowns and another two through the air. His 69.1 rushing yards per game rank fourth among players who has seen the field in at least eight tilts and he also is tied for the league lead with six rushing plays of more than 20 yards. Mostert is also a contributor in the passing game, with his 26 targets ranking third on the team. This is a cherry matchup as the Jets are allowing 137.6 rushing yards per game, which is the third most in the league.

Salvon Ahmed is likely to serve as the RB2 on Friday and he too is an adequate pass-catcher, with 23 targets. Over the last five games, which Achane missed or left early, he is averaging 20 offensive plays and has clearly moved beyond veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. The only real path for Wilson to see the field, is if Achane is inactive.

Fullback Alec Ingold has been managing a foot injury, but he is a differentiation option for those building 50 or more lineups. He is usually on the field for around one-third o the snaps, but is more of a glorified sixth offensive lineman with no targets this season, though three of his eight carries came last week against the Raiders.

Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill (108, 32%) and Jaylen Waddle (67, 20%) dominate the target volume and share, with the former dramatically eclipsing the latter. Hill leads the league with 122.2 yards per game, 56 first downs and nine receiving scores. He is behind only CeeDee Lamb (22), with 20 plays of 20-plus yards. Waddle is just outside the top-20 wideouts with 64.1 yards per game and he is averaging nearly five catches per appearance.

Cedrick Wilson Jr. has nine targets over the last two games, with Braxton Berrios injuring his hamstring in Week 9. Berrios is expected to play after having no practice restrictions this week, so this duo will likely be battling for the scraps. Robbie Chosen played five snaps on Sunday, for his first action since Week 6, though it would be a surprise to see him in uniform on Friday.

River Cracraft also returned to action, seeing the field on 30% of the snaps after missing nearly two months with a shoulder injury. The former Washington State Cougar is a good run blocker, which will have him on the field a fair amount. He is a capable receiver, having played in the Wazzu Air Raid offense, but there is only one football to go around on the high-powered Miami offense.

Chase Claypool was inactive last week, so it looks like he is relegated to spectator status, until someone gets hurt.

Tight Ends

Durham Smythe missed last week with an ankle injury and he was still only a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice. Julian Hill has been serving as the TE2, though it is rare for Miami to employ two-tight end sets. Tyler Kroft would be in play if Smythe is out again, but this position has seen just 26 targets on the season, with 22 going to Smythe.

Defense/Special Teams

New York has allowed the third most sacks in the league, while Miami has been productive with just over three per game. The Jets are suffering 1.8 turnovers per tilt, with the Dolphins nabbing 1.2 per game.

New York Jets: 15.5 Points

Quarterback

Friday, New York will be conducting a grand experiment, in which they settle the conundrum of whether or not it could get worse with someone other than Zack Wilson under center. Wilson’s QBR is ahead of only Bryce Young and only Sam Howell has been sacked more frequently. It is a shame that the team didn’t trade for a backup or sign a journeyman to try and maintain the offense, letting the dynamic playmakers do their thing… heck, even Joe Flacco (just signed to the Cleveland practice squad) would have been better than Tim Boyle.

Boyle is no stranger to being under center around the holidays, with his three career starts coming during this same timeframe back in 2021 when he was with Detroit. Of course he lost all three starts, where he was replacing an injured Jared Goff, managing just three touchdowns against six interceptions. Somehow he did not get sacked in these games, but that of course is just an anomaly.

Running Back

Breece Hall has settled into the lead running back role, seeing the field for around two-thirds of the offensive plays. Though he has not rolled up a lot of yards on the ground, he still has been averaging just over a dozen carries per game during during his last five appearances. He also has averaged nearly five receptions per game during this stretch, as well as recording two touchdowns to go with his one rushing score.

Miami has the 22nd ranked rushing DVOA, though the team is in the top-10, allowing just under 100 yards per game and 3.8 yards per carry. Dalvin Cook has cemented his role as the RB2 as New York surprisingly released Michael Carter, who was promptly signed by the Arizona Cardinals.

That opens the door for fifth-round rookie Izzy Abanikanda, who saw his first action on the season getting one carry for 11 yards and a reception for another five on two looks. Cook may be on the field for his pass protection skills ahead of Abanikanda, but expect the rookie to outpace the veteran in total touches for the balance of the season.

Fullback Nick Bawden sees the field only a few times each week, with limited opportunities. He has just one target, which he brought in for seven yards and of course he scored a one-yard touchdown run on his lone carry.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson has a whopping 103 targets on the season, which is in line with the rest of the league leaders, with just over 10 per game. Of course the end results for receptions (57), yards (651) and touchdowns (2) are disappointing, but everyone in the stadium knows the ball is going to him as the passing game priority. It will be interesting to see how Boyle does, but it would make sense if he continues the trend of peppering Wilson with targets.

Allen Lazard has five or more looks in three of the last four games, so his one target last week is likely an outlier. Xavier Gipson has surpassed Randall Cobb for the WR3 role, with Malik Taylor rounding things out, now that Mecole Hardman Jr. is back in Kansas City. Gipson also returns kicks, so he is interesting on DraftKings at just $800, though not particularly enthralling at $6,500 on FanDuel.

Tight End

Tyler Conklin continues to be Mr. Consistency and we know that tight ends get a lot off looks from inexperienced quarterbacks. He has 45 targets on the season, which is more that double what C.J. Uzomah (12) and Jeremy Ruckert (10) have combined. Conklin is a bit spendy on FanDuel ($8,000), but he looks good on DraftKings ($3,200). It should be noted that Ruckert did get four targets last week and he is just above the minimum salary on most DFS sites.

Defense/Special Teams

New York is averaging 2.6 sacks per game, while Miami has allowed only 16 on the season, which is the third fewest in the league. The Dolphins are around league average, with 1.6 turnovers per game and the Jets have the same takeaway rate.

Black Friday Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Dolphins-Jets DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Dolphins-Jets

1. Tyreek Hill: Hand issue should not be too much of a concern.
2. Tua Tagovailoa: Steady, though he may not have much attainable upside in this matchup as detailed above.
3. Breece Hall: Likely facing a stacked box, could make up for it with half a dozen receptions.
4. Jaylen Waddle: Back-to-back single-digit fantasy outings, expect him to get a few extra helpings in the passing game.
5. Miami D/ST: Pick-six or a scoop-and-score feels all but preordained.
6. Raheem Mostert: Could get the second half off if the team has a multi-touchdown lead.
7. Garrett Wilson: Hard to perform with everyone watching.
8. Jason Sanders: Only 12 field goal attempts on the season, but 39 extra points. This could easily course-correct with a couple of stalled red zone drives.
9. Tim Boyle: Ugh.
10. Greg Zuerlein: Streak of five multi-FG games snapped last week when he did not get any opportunities in Buffalo.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Dolphins-Jets

1. Tyler Conklin: Steady as she goes.
2. New York D/ST: Miami limits turnovers and sacks.
3. Xavier Gipson: Price is right, also returns kicks.
4. Allen Lazard: No salary discount, hard to see him with more than four receptions and 50 yards.
5. Salvon Ahmed, De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson Jr.: Hard to see the team rushing back Achane, but if he is active forget Wilson. Ahmed is the better option from the trio this week under all circumstances.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Dolphins-Jets

1. Jeremy Ruckert: DraftKings only, but in play at $400, even if he sees just one target.
2. Cedrick Wilson Jr.: Just enough to warrant his own line.
3. Israel Abanikanda: In play on the main DFS sites for those building 20 lineups.
4. Dalvin Cook: How the mighty have fallen.
5. Durham Smythe and Julian Hill: If starting, Smythe is a decent salary saver. If he is inactive, Hill is a great salary saver.
6. Braxton Berrios and River Cracraft: Berrios is the main returner, Cracraft could get more time on the field for his blocking skills. Limit of one per lineup from this duo.
7. Zach Wilson: In play for those building 75 or more lineups.
8. Alec Ingold: Cheapy, but likely capped at two touches and very little red zone equity.
9. C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Kroft: Last of the tight end options.
10. Nick Bawden, Jason Brownlee, Tyler Kroft, Irving Charles, Chase Claypool, Randall Cobb and Chosen Anderson: Give these turkeys a break.

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