With a loaded Tuesday slate, MLB DFS players have plenty of options — but you need not look further for the best expert advice. Let’s turn to Stokastic’s MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS ownership projections, plus the Top Stacks and Top Pitchers Tools, to find some of the best MLB DFS value plays tonight, including analysis of Justin Verlander and his early season struggles.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | June 20
Seattle Mariners (George Kirby) at New York Yankees (Gerrit Cole) | MLB DFS Advice
Cole has the highest top-two pitcher percentage on the slate in the Top Pitchers tool and is also projected for the most ownership. He enters the game with a 26.4 percent strikeout percentage and 3.86 xFIP and will face a Seattle club that has a 100 wRC+ and the third-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season.
Kirby is an average strikeout pitcher, with a strikeout percentage of 22 percent this season, but has elite command and control. He has only walked 1.9 percent of hitters and can consistently operate on the edge of the strike zone. The lack of walks allows him to be efficient and work deep into games, which offsets the fact that he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate.
Chicago Cubs (Marcus Stroman) at Pittsburgh Pirates (Johan Oviedo) | MLB DFS Advice
This game features a lot of decent but not great spots. Stroman is in the midst of a strong season with a 3.62 xFIP to date. The problem is that he has only struck out 21.6 percent of hitters. He is comparable to Kirby, but Kirby projects slightly better and is slightly less expensive.
Oviedo has done a good job of limiting power this season but has only struck out 20.6 percent of hitters while walking 10.2 percent with a 4.54 xFIP. The Cubs would be the preferred stack here, but they are in a pitcher’s park so that mutes some of their appeal.
St. Louis Cardinals (Jordan Montgomery) at Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore) | MLB DFS Advice
This matchup is full of strong contrarian plays for GPPs. The Cardinals are projected to be under-owned in the Top Stacks tool. Gore, on the other side, is also projected to be under-owned. It’s a tough matchup for both sides, which will keep the ownership numbers in check, but they also both offer immense upside.
The Cardinals’ active roster has a 126 wRC+ and .199 ISO against left-handed pitching since the start of last season while striking out just 19.7 percent of the time. Gore has the third-highest strikeout percentage on the slate this season at 27.5 percent along with a 3.68 xFIP and has held right-handed hitters to a .296 xwOBA.
Montgomery is a viable GPP pivot as well, as he currently has an eight percent chance of being a top-two scoring pitcher and an eight percent chance of being a top-two value pitcher at just seven percent ownership.
Oakland Athletics (Ken Waldichuk/Luis Medina) at Cleveland Guardians (Aaron Civale) | MLB DFS Advice
Civale has thrown at least 90 pitches in each of his last two starts, so we don’t need to be concerned about him operating on a short leash after his stint on the Injured List. He has only struck out 19.5 percent of hitters with a 4.40 xFIP in his five starts this season, but he struck out 24.1 percent of hitters with a 3.87 xFIP in 20 starts last season. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, and he gets a strong matchup against an Oakland club that has the second-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season with a 94 wRC+.
Cleveland bats also look good tonight, as they will take on the combination of Waldichuk and Medina. Medina should do the bulk of the work and has allowed a .192 xISO and .380 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season along with a .249 xISO and .360 xwOBA to righties. Jose Ramirez and Amed Rosario stand out as the top options, but there is plenty of value elsewhere in the lineup as well.
Colorado Rockies (Noah Davis) at Cincinnati Reds (Ben Lively) | MLB DFS Advice
The Rockies will use yet another terrible pitcher tonight in Cincinnati, and the Reds once again project as one of the top stacks. They are projected to be over-owned, but, if you can find ways to offset their ownership within your lineup, they are one of the teams most likely to succeed. Davis projects for about a 17 percent strikeout percentage and 5.8 xFIP over the rest of the season, depending on which model you look at.
Lively is a wildcard, as we still don’t have a lot of data on him because he spent the last few seasons in the KBO, but he has found success for the Reds so far. He has struck out 25.2 percent of hitters with a 4.00 xFIP. His only real issue has been the 1.96 home runs per nine innings that he has allowed, but the Rockies don’t have a ton of power in their lineup. At only $7,100, he is one of the better SP2 options on DraftKings.
In tournaments, my MLB DFS advice changes a little — we can take some shots at Colorado’s bats, since Lively will most likely see a drop in performance sooner rather than later. Nolan Jones and Ryan McMahon are the best options from Colorado, but they are projected to be an under-owned stack as well.
Boston Red Sox (Kutter Crawford) at Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober) | MLB DFS Advice
Crawford is a good point-per-dollar value option at SP2 because he is only $5,400 on DraftKings. The Twins have the highest strikeout percentage in baseball against right-handed pitching this season at 28.5 percent, but they have also been above average in terms of production with a 107 wRC+ and .177 ISO. Crawford has struck out 26.7 percent of hitters with a 3.32 xFIP in his five starts this season and has struck out 24.6 percent of hitters with a 3.84 xFIP in his 13 appearances overall. He threw 80 pitches in his last start, so he should be able to handle close to a full workload tonight as well.
The Twins offer upside against Crawford, as his biggest weakness this season has been left-handed power. He has been good against lefties overall, striking out 32.6 percent with a .269 xwOBA allowed, but the power has been an issue with a .218 ISO and .210 xISO. Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler and Joey Gallo all offer inexpensive power from the left side, while Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are righties who can do damage against anyone.
Arizona Diamondbacks (Ryne Nelson) at Milwaukee Brewers (Colin Rea) | MLB DFS Advice
Both offenses are interesting in this game, as two of the weaker pitchers on the slate will face off in a hitter-friendly park. Ryne Nelson has allowed a .244 xISO and .423 xwOBA to left-handed hitters this season and will most likely have to deal with Christian Yelich, Jesse Winker and Rowdy Tellez within the top five of Milwaukee’s lineup. He has been much better against righties, but Willy Adames and William Contreras are strong plays at relatively weak positions as well.
On the other side, Rea has been better than Nelson this season. He owns a 22.1 percent strikeout percentage and 4.20 xFIP. Lefties have a .162 xISO and .330 xwOBA while righties have a .153 xISO and .324 xwOBA. Arizona has a very dangerous lineup, however, with speed and power from top to bottom. Their active roster is tied for fifth with a 114 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a .200 ISO and have only struck out 19 percent of the time.
Texas Rangers (Nathan Eovaldi) at Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
Eovaldi has struck out 25.5 percent of hitters this season and gets to face the second-worst offense against right-handed pitching year to date. The problem is that he is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, so he will be difficult to prioritize.
Cease is in the opposite situation. Texas is tied for second with a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Cease is only $7,700 on DraftKings, however, which is a very inexpensive salary for his strikeout upside. He has struck out 26.2 percent of hitters so far this season, and that number will probably increase as he struck out 30.4 percent of hitters last season and 31.9 percent of hitters the season before that.
Texas is in a tough spot, but my MLB DFS advice is that there is some merit to stacking them in large-field tournaments simply because of how much upside they have in their lineup at low ownership.
New York Mets (Justin Verlander) at Houston Astros (Framber Valdez) | MLB DFS Advice
Two more good pitchers will square off in this one. Verlander is off to a slow start this season and has struck out just 21 percent of hitters with a 4.35 xFIP. However, it’s likely that Verlander’s numbers will improve going forward, as he struck out 27 to 28 percent of hitters last season and he has had a string of difficult strikeout matchups so far this season.
So how tough have Verlander’s matchups been so far? The median strikeout percentage for teams against right-handed pitching this season is 22.3 percent. Through his first eight starts this season, the only teams that he has faced with strikeout percentages above that mark are the Tigers (23.9%) and the Rockies (24.9%). The game against Colorado was in Coors Field, though, so that matchup needs to be discounted. The Yankees have a 22.3 percent strikeout percentage. Every other team Verlander has faced ranks below the median strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. This is one of the lowest price tags we will see on Verlander, and he is only projected for six percent ownership.
Unfortunately, Verlander has another tough matchup tonight. Houston’s active roster without Yordan Alvarez only has a 92 wRC+, but they’ve also only struck out 22.2 percent of the time. The average strikeout percentage of the projected starting lineup is only 21.3 percent, and even that is skewed because most of the strikeouts are at the bottom of the lineup. The average strikeout percentage of the top six hitters in Houston’s projected lineup (Dubon, Altuve, Tucker, Bregman, Abreu, Diaz) is just 17.9 percent against right-handed pitching this season.
On the other side, Valdez is an excellent pitcher with a 26.2 percent strikeout percentage and 2.91 xFIP this season. He is projected for less ownership than Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw in the $10,000-plus salary range, which makes him an interesting GPP option despite the tough matchup against the Mets, who have a 116 wRC+ and 19.2 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching on their active roster since the start of last season.
San Diego Padres (Seth Lugo) at San Francisco Giants (Anthony DeSclafani) | MLB DFS Advice
Both of these offenses have high ceilings, but the park hurts home run potential. Neither pitcher is bad, but with a lot of strong pitchers pitching tonight, these are two of the weaker ones on the slate. The Giants have a 122 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. The Padres enter the game with a 97 wRC+ but a ton of talent in their lineup that suggests they will improve sooner rather than later.
From an individual matchup standpoint, Lugo hasn’t had big splits this season, allowing a .189 xISO and .359 xwOBA to lefties and a .185 xISO and .330 xwOBA to righties. His 27.3 percent strikeout percentage against lefties is much higher than his 16.8 percent strikeout percentage against righties, however.
On the other side, DeSclafani has struck out 24.2 percent of righties while holding them to a .151 xISO and .319 xwOBA. Lefties have only struck out 12.5 percent of the time with a .181 xISO and .344 xwOBA.
Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw) at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers) | MLB DFS Advice
Kershaw has the second-best odds of being a top-two scoring pitcher and is projected for the second-most ownership. He leads the slate with a 29.3 percent strikeout percentage, and his 3.08 xFIP is second best to Framber Valdez. He is sandwiched between Cole and Valdez in terms of salary and is a strong SP1 option if you have the salary.
Reid Detmers is only $6,900 in a dangerous matchup with the Dodgers. However, he has the second-highest strikeout percentage on the slate at 27.7 percent along with a 3.91 xFIP. At only about six percent ownership, he is worth a flier in tournaments. If you’re avoiding Detmers, the Dodgers are a high-upside stack as well. He has been very good at limiting power this season, holding righties to a .127 xISO while striking them out at a 29.5 percent clip, but the Dodgers’ righties aren’t your average hitters, and they enter the game with an implied total of 4.6 runs.
