The 2022-23 college basketball season concludes with a showdown slate on Monday, April 3 for the NCAA National Championship. This column will dive into each game and highlight the top March Madness DFS picks and value plays to target with the help of Stokastic’s CBB DFS projections.
March Madness DFS Picks | National Championship
San Diego State vs. UConn
To finish out an electric College Basketball season, UConn will face San Diego State as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 132.5 total. To get to this point, UConn knocked off Iona, Saint Mary’s, Arkansas, Gonzaga and Miami. On the other side, San Diego State defeated Charleston, Furman, Alabama, Creighton and Florida Atlantic on its way to the National Championship.
The Huskies are led by big man Adama Sanogo ($10,000). A walking double-double, Sanogo has a 19.7% shot rate and 19.3% rebound rate this season. Even more crazy, Sanogo hasn’t eclipsed 26 minutes in any of UConn’s last three games. It should be noted that UConn won each of those games by 13, 28 and 23 points. In more competitive contests, Sanogo has routinely reached 30 minutes. If that happens here, Sanogo should double-double with ease.
Behind Sanogo, UConn relies on its two elite guards, Jordan Hawkins ($8,200) and Andre Jackson ($7,800). Both eclipse 30 minutes in competitive games, which did not happen in the Final Four. Hawkins is more scoring reliant behind his 19.1% shot rate. Jackson is the exact opposite, functioning as the offensive facilitator, but he also has a 14.7% rebound rate and 24.3% shot rate. Ultimately, both are elite price-adjusted plays and can be used together without question here. Another two days of rest should help Hawkins get over the illness he battled ahead of the Final Four as well.
To round out the starting five, Alex Karaban ($7,600) and Tristen Newton ($7,200) both routinely push 30 minutes. Newton has been more involved than Karaban recently. Newton logged an 11.5% shot rate, 14.5% rebound rate and 29% assist rate over the last three games. Meanwhile, Karaban has a 12% shot rate, 16.1% rebound rate and 6.5% assist rate. Newton projects particularly well with the cheaper price tag, but all five of the UConn starters should be in consideration for March Madness DFS.
Off the bench, Donovan Clingan ($6,000) backs up Sanogo. Clingan brings elite rates, but he has only played 13 minutes in each of the last three games. While expensive, a Sanogo foul game could be Clingan’s path to more minutes. Joey Calcaterra ($3,200) and Nahiem Alleyne ($2,400) make up the potential value plays. Calcaterra played 18, 13 and 12 minutes in the last three games. Similarly, Alleyne played 21, 16 and 19 minutes. With Alleyne seemingly getting more minutes at a cheaper price tag, he makes more sense here.
The Aztecs play an even more muddled rotation. After back-to-back horrific games in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, Matt Bradley ($7,400) finally rebounded in the Final Four. Bradley leads the team with a 20.6% usage rate, but he is no stranger to volatile minutes. In the last three games, Bradley played 32, 20 and 19 minutes. With that said, he is still the best player on this team. Darrion Trammell ($6,600) and Lamont Butler ($7,000) are the next-most involved. Trammell played 28, 31 and 30 minutes in the last three games, notching a 19.8% shot rate and 11.6% rebound rate. Butler operates as more of a facilitator, but he played 29, 29 and 22 minutes over the last three games. While his 13.4% shot rate leaves a little to be desired, Butler still has a 25% assist rate on the year.
The final starters are Nathan Mensah ($5,400) and Keshad Johnson ($5,600). Mensah played 22, 19 and 22 minutes in the last three games. He had a 17.9% rebound rate in that span, but the rest of his stats left much to be desired. Johnson played 21, 27 and 26 minutes in the last three games. While his minutes look a little better, Johnson still lacks strong usage.
Off the bench, Jaedon LeDee ($6,400) played 14, 20 and 18 minutes. LeDee had a 15.6% shot rate and 16.1% rebound rate over the last three games despite his low minute totals. If LeDee runs into a rogue 25-minute game, these rates will likely lead to a solid box score. Micah Parris ($5,200) played 21, 16 and 28 minutes. He had a 10.4% shot rate, 14.3% rebound rate and 12.5% assist rate over the last three games, making him a solid value target. Aguek Arop ($4,200) comes in with horrific rates after playing 22, 14 and 14 minutes. He is cheap, but going down to Adam Seiko ($1,800) might make more sense. Seiko and Arop both have pathetic usage rates on 9.7% and 9.4%. However, Seiko allows all of the studs to be jammed alongside him in lineups.
