We’re back with a monster 11-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, April 9 (Main Slate)
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Blue Jays: George Kirby
Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 8.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
With good pitching options scattered across every price point, ownership is pretty spread out to six pitchers projected getting the majority of love. George Kirby is not one of those six pitchers. After fellow Mariners starter Luis Castillo let us down in this exact same spot last night, we will go back to the well with Kirby, as the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate it should.
Although picking on the Blue Jays is more often than not a fool’s errand, Kirby has elite stuff, and his talent is worth taking shots on when he’s projected for minuscule ownership. Last year he went 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a stellar 172 strikeouts and 19 walks across 31 starts, but Kirby has been up and down this season. While he was phenomenal in his season debut against the Red Sox, he is coming off arguably the worst start of his career last time out against the Guardians, and as a result, the masses are laughing at the idea of spending $9,400 on him on DraftKings.
As of this writing, however, Kirby is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. He is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher 8.7% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but Kirby is only trending to be in 0.5% of lineups.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Royals-Astros: Astros
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.5%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 3.4%
With 11 games on tonight’s docket, and teams like the Diamondbacks and Rangers projected to pull a ton of ownership, there are worthy contrarian stacks both expensive and cheap. When the dust settles, however, Houston stands out as the clear top contrarian stack on the board. Matched up with budding ace Cole Ragans, it’s a bit surprising to see Houston project so well in Stokastic’s tools, but anytime a team as good as the Astros is falling through the cracks, it’s worth at least looking at them in tournaments.
Although stacking against a pitcher like Ragans is never advised, there’s a lot of game theory that goes into any MLB slate, and when a team like Houston catches Ragans on a bad day, it will more times than not make that pitcher play. The median projection for Houston is lower than those from teams like Arizona and Texas, but the upside is as high or higher than any other team in baseball. The Astros’ ability to hit home runs and steal bases puts them in play on every slate, and tonight is no exception.
While their floor is undeniably lower than other stacks in their price range due to a matchup with Ragans, the Astros are still coming in severely under-owned. As of this writing, Houston is projected to be the top stack 6.5% of the time this slate plays out, and only 3.2% of the field is projected to stack them.
Other MLB Notes for April 9
There is another Coors slate, so the decision point always starts there. The Diamondbacks are projected to be the top stack on the board an overwhelming 20.1% of the time on DraftKings. While they are also projected to be the highest-owned stack, clearly they are being misrepresented with only 14.6% of the field expected to stack them. That said, I struggle to see Arizona not become the overwhelming chalk in higher-dollar/single-entry tournaments, so fading them there becomes more viable.
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