Monday kicks off the week with a three-game featured slate that has a late 9:38 p.m. ET start time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. As always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Blake Snell and the Texas Rangers as a popular combination.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 25
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Blake Snell at San Francisco Giants — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $11,500 | Yahoo $58
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Blake Snell rated as the best pitching option on Monday’s short slate. That should be no surprise to anyone, as Snell is currently listed as a -6000 favorite to win the National League Cy Young Award per OddsShopper.com. The 30-year-old is having his finest season since 2018, when he won the American League Cy Young Award while pitching for Tampa Bay.
Currently, Snell leads the league with a 2.33 ERA and a 176 ERA+ as well as averaging just 5.7 hits per nine innings. The only blemish is that he has a league-high 97 walks, but his 11.7 strikeouts per nine more than make up for that in the eyes of DFS gamers.
San Francisco will be running out a mostly right-handed lineup, though that should not be an issue for the splendiferous southpaw, who has a 31.8% strikeout rate against opposite-handed hitters this season — down slightly from his absurd 32.5% rate last year.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Jon Gray at Los Angeles Angels — 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $6,400 | FanDuel $8,000 | Yahoo $31
Luis Castillo, Justin Verlander and Logan Webb are all solid selections tonight, but that is obvious. For differentiation at the pitching slot, it comes down to RHP Jon Gray and LHP Patrick Sandoval squaring off in Anaheim. Since it is foolish to attack the Texas offense, let’s take a peek at what Gray offers.
Ugh, let’s just say that the last three starts have been U-G-L-Y, to say the least. In games against Oakland, Boston and Cleveland, Gray has lasted a combined 8.2 innings, resulting in four home runs, a disastrous 10.38 ERA, a 10.07 FIP and a .375 batting average against.
This is all about how horrible the Halos are at this point in the season, with their “best” batters being an over-the-hill Mike Moustakas, perpetual prospect Jo Adell and the enigmatic Brandon Drury. Clearly, this recommendation is not for the faint of heart, and it should only be employed in tournaments on the two-pitcher sites.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Texas Rangers at LHP Patrick Sandoval — 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
On tonight’s succinct slate, only Texas has an implied team total over four runs. Gamers will be flocking here, which means for differentiation, we can look to one-offs against our own pitchers, such as Wilmer Flores or J.D. Davis against Snell, Julio Rodriguez and Ty France against Verlander, and Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker against Castillo.
While he is not a complete gas can, LHP Patrick Sandoval has had challenges sustaining his success of the prior two seasons. This year he has a career-low 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a career-high 4.4 walks per nine. To his credit, he does a solid job of limiting power, and over his last 1,200 batters faced, he has a 47.9% ground ball rate.
Right-handed power will be the way to go, which is plentiful on Texas. Adolis Garcia, rookie Josh Jung, leadoff man Marcus Semien, and catchers Jonah Heim and Mitch Garver are the key hitters to target in this matchup.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can look to J.P. Crawford in the sports wagering market for his home run prop. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows that the Mariners leadoff hitter has +597 “true odds” of poking one over the fences, accompanied by a lofty +680 payoff, which is indicative of a line that is inefficient by just over 10%.
Crawford is not known for his power, but he does have a career-high 17 home runs this season and a .370 wOBA, with a .194 ISO in 427 plate appearances against opposite-handed hurlers. In his age-40 season, Verlander has been far from impervious to home runs, ceding seven in his last four games. Those looking for a somewhat “safer” wager can roll with over 1.5 total bases from Crawford at +180, though this is an efficient line.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, September 25 | MLB DFS Picks
Weather will be cool but pleasant for the three West Coast games tonight.
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